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Spring and Summer thread for the Mountains


Met1985

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Wow what a 24 hours. First we received 1.12 inches of rainfall from last night through the morning. We have received about 5 inches of rainfall in just 3 weeks. As Mike alluded to July has turned very wet for the mountains. Well those storms last night were very intense. They knocked out the satellite, the internet modem was fried and one of our TV's got fried. Also had a friend that lives up Hemp hill road who had a large locust tree blown over.  Then the beautiful weather set in. We had a high of 70 degrees and we are sitting at a cool 66 degrees and it feels a bit nippy outside and for July this weather is awesome!

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Excessive Rainfall Warning put out for most of WNC.  Looks like things are going to be pretty soggy for the next couple of days.  Good thing I will be going to the beach.. but that forecast doesn't look much better!

 

 

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EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
148 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

...VALID 18Z THU JUL 31 2014 - 00Z SAT AUG 02 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 SSE RTN 50 E ROW 40 SSE GDP 10 ENE E38 45 SSE MRF 65 SW MRF
60 WSW MRF 65 SE MMCS MMCS 45 SSW LRU 50 SSW DMN 75 ESE DUG
20 WSW OLS 80 W OLS 70 S GBN GBN 25 NNE SDL 25 NNE SJN
25 SSE GUP 35 WNW 4SL 25 W CPW 30 SE MYP 30 WSW FCS 25 NNW TAD
10 S TAD 55 SSE RTN.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNE RHP BCB 25 NNW LYH HBI 20 SSW FLO 30 E CHS 30 S CHS
35 NW NBC 15 SSE AGS 10 E 3J7 10 WNW LZU 10 S 47A 10 S DNN
20 NNE RHP.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSE GRD 15 W 27A 15 NW CEU 20 SW AVL 20 W MRN 10 NNE HKY
10 NNE AKH 25 SW UZA 10 SSE GRD.


SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ONGOING CONVECTION IN SC HAS LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS
NORTHWEST SC, INCREASING THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR
TONIGHT.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD CAUSE SOME CELL TRAINING FROM
THE SC COAST NEAR CHARLESTON INLAND TOWARDS THE TOPOGRAPHY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER
06Z, 850 HPA INFLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GA INCREASES
OVER 25 KTS WHILE UPSTREAM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES REMAIN ~1000 J/KG
(PER RECENT RAP GUIDANCE), SETTING OFF A NEW ROUND OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.  FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE HIGH OUTSIDE OF
NORTHWEST SC AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC, WHICH LIMITS THE OVERALL
RISK.  HOWEVER, VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME FORWARD PROPAGATION, AND THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST 20 KTS OF NORTHEAST MOTION FROM NORTHERN GA INTO
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS AN 850 HPA LOW MOVES UP THE
APPALACHIANS, HEAVY RAINS SHOULD SHIFT UP INTO SOUTHWEST VA DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST, IN THE 1.75-2" RANGE.  THIS
SUGGESTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2" AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS
BACKBUILD, OR MORE LIKELY, TRAIN.  LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5" RANGE
ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD BREACH THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
TOWARDS THE NC COAST, THE GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT ON A POSSIBLE
SIGNAL WITHIN OUR SECONDARY RAINFALL MAXIMUM WITHIN THE MARSHES OF
EASTERN NC, GENERALLY EAST OF I-95, SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREAS.

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Back in the mountains for the weekend. Surprised to see a flash flood watch. Hasn't even rained enough to wet the ground good and don't see anything on radar to change that.  Not complaining but hard to see how they missed it by so much.

 

 

The short range models yesterday had he heaviest rain work its way to along the Blue Ridge by this morning...which of course didn't pan out. That happens sometimes when you try to guess on where to place a short-fused Flood Watch.

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The short range models yesterday had he heaviest rain work its way to along the Blue Ridge by this morning...which of course didn't pan out. That happens sometimes when you try to guess on where to place a short-fused Flood Watch.

 

Not a drop of rain fell overnight despite being under a Flash Flood Watch..this was by far the worse blown forecast of the year-rainwise.

It appears low-level convergence East of the Blue Ridge effectively prevented much upslope type rainfall.  It wasn't hard to see the bust potential..upslope winds were very modest so any kind of mesoscale process could disrupt the flow quite easily.

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NC High Country Friends and Neighbors:

 

Rays Weather is coming out with Apps for their proprietary content for the NC High Country in both an Apple App and an Android Map.   It will be a superb app for current conditions in the NC High Country for all of us Outdoor Sportsmen and a great addition for this upcoming winter!

 

The Apple App will be available in the next few days.

 

The Android App is already available:

 

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.raysweather.mobile

 

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I was just looking at records for Asheville and noticed that the airport itself has not recorded a single day above 90 degrees. Last time that occurred? The year of 2009. Also worth noting that the year of 2013 only had one day breaking the barrier of 90 degrees as well. I'm looking forward to this winter in AVL :)

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/Climate/AVL/newAVL90degdayperyr.pdf

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Morning all!, just wanted to give a quick update on the move. We are moved in and sorting thru a lot of junk.....ugh. We start work today which is a transfer to the store I started at. The weather is hot but we are close enough to the beach to get the sea breeze. Typical afternoon thunderstorms but as Mike alluded to the vast majority graze the coast and pound areas just inland from us. Wish you all well & I will post soon when I have more time.

 

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Morning all!, just wanted to give a quick update on the move. We are moved in and sorting thru a lot of junk.....ugh. We start work today which is a transfer to the store I started at. The weather is hot but we are close enough to the beach to get the sea breeze. Typical afternoon thunderstorms but as Mike alluded to the vast majority graze the coast and pound areas just inland from us. Wish you all well & I will post soon when I have more time.

 

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Great to hear from you Don. Hope all keeps going well for you and your family.

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A few stats I put together for my page regarding yearly snowfall amounts at KAVL during weak el ninos, moderate el ninos, & neutral years.  I was kind of surprised to find that we average more snowfall at the airport on moderate el nino years compared to the others I investigated.

 

Weak El Nino Years (KAVL Snowfall)  

 

52'-53'     15.7"

 

53'-54'      9.7"

 

58'-59'      4.1"

 

69'-70'     17.3"

 

76'-77'     13.0"

 

77'-78'     21.8"

 

04'-05'      6.6"

 

06'-07'      4.3"

 

Average: 11.5"

 

 

Moderate El Nino Years (KAVL Snowfall)

51'-52'      5.7"

 

63'-64'     25.8"

 

68'-69'     48.2"

 

86'-87'     29.5"

 

91'-92'      1.5"

 

94'-95'      3.5"

 

02'-03'     17.9"

 

09'-10'     39.2"

 

Average  21.4"

 

 

Neutral Years (KAVL Snowfall)

 

59'-60'     40.6"

 

60'-61'      4.0"

 

61'-62'     22.8"

 

62'-63'      9.0"

 

66'-67'      7.8"

 

67'-68'     15.2"

 

78'-79'     23.0"

 

79'-80'     13.8"

 

80'-81'     14.6"

 

81'-82'     21.8"

 

85'-86'      5.0"

 

89'-90'      3.0"

 

90'-91'      3.5"

 

92'-93'     21.2"

 

93'-94'     11.0"

 

96'-97'      8.3"

 

01'-02'      1.6"

 

03'-04'     14.3"

 

12'-13'        .5"

 

13'-14'     10.0"+ (data was undetermined from NWS)

 

Average  12.5"

 

 

Though we don't seem to do as well on weak el nino years, I believe that we develop a nice -nao that will allow Asheville and wnc to have an above average year in snowfall, regardless of what the ENSO does.  Here is my map outlook:

 

1907403_1456512977952604_125744116968503

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Even the best snow years in Asheville are enough to make a snow lover want to cry! I'm not sure how the Asheville folks endure the abuse especially being surrounded by snowy mountains. :)

Little closer to obtaining a new vacation home at a location that could best be described as snow nirvana. Hopefully will be mine in September...

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