Hvward Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The authors highlighted commonly seen parameters for heavy rain events in the Southern Appalachian regions. They listed the following: “K-indices > 30 negative Lifted Indices surface dewpoints at or above 60 F 850-mb temperatures > 13 C 850-mb dewpoints > 10 C 700-mb temperatures > 5 C 700-mb dewpoints > 2 C Southerly winds were typically observed in the low levels with uni-directional southwest winds above 850 mb during synoptic and frontal events, while meso-high events typically exhibited weak uni-directional southwest flow between the surface and 500-mb levels prior to the onset of heavy rainfall. CAPE values did not seem to show a direct relationship to the occurrence of heavy rain.” Wow right on que today... Current conditions in Buncombe Co. per mesoscale analysis. K index is non-existent but 850 mb moisture transport is beginning to fill in. Soupy conditions to say the least. I will be interested to see if we get storms tomorrow. Love all the observing and learning going on in this area. Thanks Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Mike very interesting on the wind speed and direction correlating to heavy rainfall. I was wondering about the correlation of snowfall though here in the mountains. I am sure same could be said for if we had a storm coming from the south with south winds but what about typical northern flow snow and the typical northwest flow snows in the winter. I am sure that could be another interesting case study especially with the microclimates we have here in the mountains. It would be very interesting to do a study from Haywood county south because of such high peaks similar to what is being studied know. Thanks for all the info anyway Mike. Very cool and interesting. Met, unfortunately the focus of the current local research project is on warm weather regimes. Still all is not lost-perhaps you would be interesting in attending the Eastern Snow Conference in Boone in June? http://www.easternsnow.org/meetings/2014/2014_ESC_Preliminary_Program.pdf Looking at the agenda items: 10:30 – 12:00 Oral Session #2: Snow in the Appalachian Mountains 10:30 Keighton et al., Ongoing Collaborative Study of Northwest Flow Snowfall (NWFS) in the Southern Appalachians 10:45 Miller et al., The Impact of Latent Heat Fluxes over Soil Surfaces on Snowfall Accumulation for Northwest Flow Snow in the Southern Appalachians 11:00 Roche, The Seeder-Feeder Mechanism and Record Snowfall from Post Tropical Cyclone Sandy 11:15 Keighton et al., Unique Northwest Flow Snow Aspects of Sandy in the Southern Appalachians 11:30 Radford et al., Relationships between Meteorological Factors and Societal Impacts Associated with Winter Storms in the Southeast United States 11:45 Palmer et al., Forecasts and Impacts of Two Significant Winter Storms in North and Central Georgia The key researcher for Northwest Flow Snow is Dr. Baker Perry: http://geo.appstate.edu/faculty-staff/faculty/baker-perry I believe he grew up in Haywood county of all places. I contacted him previously to see if I could get him to set up shop on my mtn top to study local snowfall patterns. He seemed interested but right now his focus is Roan Mtn..ground zero for Northwest Flow snowfall. I was hoping to get him to deploy his MObile Precipitation Research And Monitoring (MOPRAM) station. If you have a few minutes-I suspect you will really enjoy reading a recent paper that came out on this: http://climate.appstate.edu/~perrylb/Pubs/Theses/Martin_2013_Thesis.pdf "SNOWFALL EVENT CHARACTERISTICS FROM A HIGH-ELEVATION SITE IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS" As mentioned in the paper, Roan Mtn picked up 155" of snow in 2012-2013! They are studying that location because it is likely the snowiest spot South of West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 21, 2014 Author Share Posted May 21, 2014 Wow great stuff Mike and I will look into the conference up there. That would be a treat to attend. I will read up on the papers also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Some very gusty wind here in Old Fort this morning. Felt very nice outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 22, 2014 Author Share Posted May 22, 2014 Looks like we could be seeing some storms firing up today then a beautiful weekend then more pop up storms for next week. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 SPC has a slight risk for parts of WNC today. High res models (excluding HRRR) fire up a few storms this afternoon but have a nice piece of energy make its way from TN into WNC very late tonight into tomorrow morning. Looks like we could be in for some spotty hail and gusty winds. HRRR has been solid in the plains this year though, so its hard to bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Visible satellite shows quite the cloud cover over WNC. I was expecting it to be sunny and blazing hot today, but so far the clouds have made it quite bearable. I wonder effect this might have on whether storms fire up or not this afternoon. Usually you need the daytime heating to get it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Visible satellite shows quite the cloud cover over WNC. I was expecting it to be sunny and blazing hot today, but so far the clouds have made it quite bearable. I wonder effect this might have on whether storms fire up or not this afternoon. Usually you need the daytime heating to get it started. Little or none as any convection that forms today will be advecting in from TN where CAPE values are really climbing in full sun. FYI..most of those clouds were mountain wave induced cirrus mixed with a little blow-off from earlier decayed convection and missed most of SW NC. The SPC has backed off on any chances of widespread convection. Now it appears that just a few cells may cross the TN border. Looking at model soundings..if one should hit my mtn top, the wind gusts might get rather out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Thanks for the info, Mike. And, those clouds have pretty much vanished now. Full sun is glaring down IMBY now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 A lot of wind all day today in the High Country. Grandfather Mountain gusted to 85.3 around 1:00am with steady gusts up to 79mph through 700am. Gusts during the day today have been steady around 63mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Storms moving into town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 23, 2014 Author Share Posted May 23, 2014 Big storms moving right know. Lots of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 23, 2014 Author Share Posted May 23, 2014 Was a nice fast storm. Was in and out in no time. Laid down .25 inches of rain. Had some nice lightning to with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Lightning shot I got from tonight's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Nice shots, Hvward. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Some pretty wicked storms making their way over the Tenn. border currently. The one Southeast of Gatlinburg could have a nice wall cloud on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 23, 2014 Author Share Posted May 23, 2014 Some pretty wicked storms making their way over the Tenn. border currently. The one Southeast of Gatlinburg could have a nice wall cloud on it. Beautiful pic from last night. Starting this morning off with a bang! Severe Thunderstorm entering the area know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 23, 2014 Author Share Posted May 23, 2014 Very eeri outside. Rain has picked up and wind has picked up. Hearing thunder also in the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 23, 2014 Author Share Posted May 23, 2014 Another storm rolling in. We have some mammatus clouds rolling in with some pretty decent downdrafts and lightning is cracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Nice shots, Hvward. Thanks for sharing. I concur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 23, 2014 Author Share Posted May 23, 2014 Lightning shot I got from tonight's storm. How did you capture this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 How did you capture this? Thanks guys! I set my camera shutter speed to bulb, iso to around 350 or 400 (since it was dusk), and then with my remote I held the exposure open for around 10-15 secs. As soon as the lightning happened, I released and allowed the lightning to be my flash in the photo. I had been reading about this technique online so I figured I would try my luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 23, 2014 Author Share Posted May 23, 2014 Thanks guys! I set my camera shutter speed to bulb, iso to around 350 or 400 (since it was dusk), and then with my remote I held the exposure open for around 10-15 secs. As soon as the lightning happened, I released and allowed the lightning to be my flash in the photo. I had been reading about this technique online so I figured I would try my luck! Thanks and great shot again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 23, 2014 Author Share Posted May 23, 2014 Looks like we are headed into a very active pattern with pop up storms just about everyday a we head into Monday through next week. Good ol convective thunderstorms. NASA should get some good data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 23, 2014 Author Share Posted May 23, 2014 Just looked at the latest GFS and looks like a chance of storms just about every afternoon next week. Should be interesting with some localized flooding may be possible of we get storms in the same place over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Thanks guys! I set my camera shutter speed to bulb, iso to around 350 or 400 (since it was dusk), and then with my remote I held the exposure open for around 10-15 secs. As soon as the lightning happened, I released and allowed the lightning to be my flash in the photo. I had been reading about this technique online so I figured I would try my luck! Was it from a building in downtown or on a side of a large hill next to downtown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Was it from a building in downtown or on a side of a large hill next to downtown? Its from about halfway up Beaucatcher Mtn. Just a little sweet spot I stumbled on when I was taking a walk one day ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Some new local severe weather research is available now online: http://cimmse.wordpress.com/2014/05/22/two-high-shear-low-cape-environment-papers-available-for-preview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 24, 2014 Author Share Posted May 24, 2014 What a gorgeous morning out there. With a low of 47 degrees and still in the fifty's it is very refreshing this morning with low humidity levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Caught this last night from Craggy Gardens with Craggy Pinnacle in the background. Wasn't as intense as it was predicted to be but still fun to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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