Met1985 Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 OK mountain folks it is time to dive into spring and hope we see some good thunderstorm activity and start the long haul towards summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 I've noticed a trend in the model data (GFS mostly) throughout the day on Friday of ramping up rainfall totals for Monday...tonight's 0z run is starting to show widespread totals of 2-3 inches in WNC with the southern slopes of the mountains being favored...Unless we get a total screw job from the Gulf Coast storm train overnight Sunday/Monday this could be a our first significant rainfall producer of the spring. Dynamics look really good as you can see 850 winds taking on a pretty good orientation to the Apps...that's a 50 kt wind in East Central GA that translate northward towards the southern slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 I had enough of those gloomy days, lol. I want to spend my last month of the school year in Asheville with warm and dry weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 I've noticed a trend in the model data (GFS mostly) throughout the day on Friday of ramping up rainfall totals for Monday...tonight's 0z run is starting to show widespread totals of 2-3 inches in WNC with the southern slopes of the mountains being favored... Unless we get a total screw job from the Gulf Coast storm train overnight Sunday/Monday this could be a our first significant rainfall producer of the spring. Dynamics look really good as you can see 850 winds taking on a pretty good orientation to the Apps...that's a 50 kt wind in East Central GA that translate northward towards the southern slopes. Was noticing the same thing Marion. Monday looks like a doozy for heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms. We need the rainfall but not all at once. Shall be interesting especially with the gulf wide open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Pssshhh rain and clouds> sun and heart. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 GFS still harping on a heavy rain event coming for Sunday night through Monday. Really most of next week look unsettled. I also see some snow in the higher elevations is still in play. Not a whole lot but might be some snow flying. The big story will be the cool down and the heavy rainfall. Looks like a general 2-3 inches for the mountains especially the SW mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 Also was quite a cool morning this morning with a low of 33 degrees. No frost because of the breeze overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 GFS still harping on a heavy rain event coming for Sunday night through Monday. Really most of next week look unsettled. I also see some snow in the higher elevations is still in play. Not a whole lot but might be some snow flying. The big story will be the cool down and the heavy rainfall. Looks like a general 2-3 inches for the mountains especially the SW mountains. Just got home and saw the 12z model suite...2-3 inches could be a base number in the SoApps, some areas may push higher totals through Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 Just got home and saw the 12z model suite...2-3 inches could be a base number in the SoApps, some areas may push higher totals through Tuesday afternoon. Ya just looked at the 12z suite also. You know with systems like this rain totals are always underdone especially in the southern Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Depressing we'll be stuck in 50s while Raleigh get 60s/70s all week long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 6, 2014 Share Posted April 6, 2014 Depressing we'll be stuck in 50s while Raleigh get 60s/70s all week long Like we're depressed all winter at 33 with rain, while you're getting snow and ice. We don't feel bad for you one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted April 6, 2014 Share Posted April 6, 2014 Like we're depressed all winter at 33 with rain, while you're getting snow and ice. We don't feel bad for you one bit. not this year. We were stuck with 15 and wind blown leaves while eastern nc had one of their greatest winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 6, 2014 Share Posted April 6, 2014 not this year. We were stuck with 15 and wind blown leaves while eastern nc had one of their greatest winters. Haha! Now that's true. PGV ftw....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 6, 2014 Share Posted April 6, 2014 Like we're depressed all winter at 33 with rain, while you're getting snow and ice. We don't feel bad for you one bit. Actually, we got screwed so many times! We only had two decent storms this year 15" is a lot, but 1/2 of that came from one event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 6, 2014 Share Posted April 6, 2014 Everything still on track at this point for a significant rainfall event for the Upper Southeast including the Southern Apps Region. I'm feeling more and more confident that we won't have much if any disruption from convection to our south. The heaviest of rains should be in tomorrow morning through afternoon. Today's 12z GFS shows a really classic upslope setup for a lot of Western North Carolina as we will have a southeast flow from the SFC through 850mb...I think somebody in one of the favored areas will make a run at 4-5 inches by the time it ends on Tuesday. SFC Winds... 925mb Winds 850mb Winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 6, 2014 Share Posted April 6, 2014 HRRR looks to put this on a near perfect track for an WNC gully washer. I wouldn't be surprised to see some flooding with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 And the thorough soaking has started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 Marion it sure has. Been raining hard most of the morning but coming down in buckets right know and the way the radar looks this is going to last quite some time. Going to be interesting what is in the rain gauge this morning as we have had some very heavy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Marion it sure has. Been raining hard most of the morning but coming down in buckets right know and the way the radar looks this is going to last quite some time. Going to be interesting what is in the rain gauge this morning as we have had some very heavy rainfall. Man it is coming down with no end soon; the waterfalls will be something to behold by this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 Man it is coming down with no end soon; the waterfalls will be something to behold by this afternoon. Ya they will be. We have need a good rain lol this for the start of spring. Nice to see but a lot of water out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Radar estimated precip already has areas of 1.5" showing up in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Radar estimated precip already has areas of 1.5" showing up in WNC. 2.5" + of rain in parts of Graham county will similar totals in other counties near the TN line: http://water.weather.gov/afws/stprecipsummary.php?state=NC My mtn top has only recorded 1.95" so far but it is likely unreporting it due to very high winds at the gauge location causing poor rain catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Radar estimated precip already has areas of 1.5" showing up in WNC. I have exactly 1 inch in the bucket with plenty more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 Have not seen the river and streams this high in quite some time. So far total rainfall is at 1.60 inches of rainfall and still coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Have not seen the river and streams this high in quite some time. So far total rainfall is at 1.60 inches of rainfall and still coming down. Highest report I could find in Western NC was 2.95" 2 NW of Waynesville at 3800 feet elevation in the Plott Balsams. The rain has moved out for the moment but the models insist on some redevelopment this afternoon. Radar map suggests that convection along the Gulf coast has robbed moisture/disrupted moisture transport into the mtns however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Highest report I could find in Western NC was 2.95" 2 NW of Waynesville at 3800 feet elevation in the Plott Balsams. The rain has moved out for the moment but the models insist on some redevelopment this afternoon. Radar map suggests that convection along the Gulf coast has robbed moisture/disrupted moisture transport into the mtns however.reports of over 4" in Macon county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 reports of over 4" in Macon county. Source? The highest I could find there is 2.94" although in this kind of setup-the mtns there often do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Tweet from Bastardi: NEW ECMWF is wild day 7-10. Brings arctic air mass into central, then eastern US and then drives major storm up e cst S Plus appalachians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Tweet from Bastardi: NEW ECMWF is wild day 7-10. Brings arctic air mass into central, then eastern US and then drives major storm up e cst S Plus Appalachians Yeah HighCountry I was getting on here to post that the Euro clown map gave KAVL 1.0" of snow on the 16th. Also has snow across much of NC. Interesting.... will be anxious to see what the ensembles say. Oh wait this is the summer thread lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Source? The highest I could find there is 2.94" although in this kind of setup-the mtns there often do very well.local radio station report. Might be the coweeta hydro lab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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