Hvward Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Sun just peaking out here in Asheville and initiating daytime heating. The line will be moving over the Southeast at an ideal time so I suspect that many on the board will see strong winds and spotty hail. Already a tornado warning for Murfreesboro so some good activity this morning. I don't believe tornados are nearly as much of a threat though today as they were yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Won't see much outside of the mountains in NC I suspect, breaks up pretty fast on the HRRR contrary to what some mets have talked about early this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 4, 2014 Author Share Posted April 4, 2014 Yeah Jon the line really just weakened on radar in the last 20-30 mins. Low dewpoints my guess? Honestly it feels pretty nice outside though I can see clouds on the horizon really beginning to develop their bases and blossom. It will be interesting to see if these re-strengthen like what was previously predicted or die out like the HRRR is suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Well, yesterday was interesting tracking these storms on GR2A and hopefully everybody is safe! I got a really nice view to west from this classroom for the upcoming storms so that's nice too I can see dark clouds from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Talk about a severe threat that has really busted. I'm even down in what's left of the slight risk area, and the storms are struggling to get well organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 4, 2014 Author Share Posted April 4, 2014 Talk about a severe threat that has really busted. I'm even down in what's left of the slight risk area, and the storms are struggling to get well organized. There aren't even any storms on the radar hardly. By far the biggest bust I have seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Not even drizzle here! Have to wait til Monday to get rain! , I hope that event doesn't dry up ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 i was hoping for at least some decent storms around today....all of a sudden they disappeared and the forecast went from the 70-80% chance to 30% hopefully this isnt a harbinger of how this years storm season goes around the se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 We all knew this would spiral downward... but, not so flamboyantly! Was hoping for a few-hundredths of rain to wash away the yellow shiate covering everything and turning the sky green. Thinking this might be a "harbinger" for this SE this summer. We might be due. Summer Bust! Yep. Let's start a new 2014-15 Winter Ob Thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 This was never going to be much of anything. The next system should do better in the rain dept for a pretty large area....the one on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 This was never going to be much of anything. The next system should do better in the rain dept for a pretty large area....the one on Monday. Models were bullish on this event. Wednesday they showed total totals over the mountains of 56(edit) or more. TWC TorCon's were between 4 and 6 yesterday for most of the southeast. In my opinion the models missed this pretty bad. Most outlets were predicting heavy rain, high winds, and lightning for my area and we barely got a shower. It wasn't going to be much for those in the eastern part of the state due to timing but GA and western NC were supposed to at least get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Models were bullish on this event. Wednesday they showed total totals over the mountains of 60 or more. TWC TorCon's were between 4 and 6 yesterday for most of the southeast. In my opinion the models missed this pretty bad. Most outlets were predicting heavy rain, high winds, and lightning for my area and we barely got a shower. It wasn't going to be much for those in the eastern part of the state due to timing but GA and western NC were supposed to at least get something.Well from what I understand, the GFS/Euro always showed what happened today. I have been checking every run of the GFS and Euro so far this past 4 days(only because I want to know how much rain I'm expecting the next four days) and they always showed the storms completely dissipating with nothing more than sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 Well from what I understand, the GFS/Euro always showed what happened today. I have been checking every run of the GFS and Euro so far this past 4 days(only because I want to know how much rain I'm expecting the next four days) and they always showed the storms completely dissipating with nothing more than sprinkles. 00z GFS last night had a large swath of total totals between 54 and 56 at 8pm today in the southeast with cape in central GA over 1000 and .10-.25 moisture. That would indicate at least some type of storm to me. I am in no way trying to legitimizes my reasoning for starting a thread because I agree it wasn't the best move, but you can't just deny that there wasn't a severe threat when many mets were calling for it. Hindsight is typically 20/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Models were bullish on this event. Wednesday they showed total totals over the mountains of 56(edit) or more. TWC TorCon's were between 4 and 6 yesterday for most of the southeast. In my opinion the models missed this pretty bad. Most outlets were predicting heavy rain, high winds, and lightning for my area and we barely got a shower. It wasn't going to be much for those in the eastern part of the state due to timing but GA and western NC were supposed to at least get something. The air east of the mountains was too stable. The mountains did what they usually do to a thin line of storms. The difference was the lack of instability to refire the storms as they moved east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 This was never going to be much of anything. The next system should do better in the rain dept for a pretty large area....the one on Monday. I have to agree on this one...even for my area in Western North Carolina the worst case scenario was a QLCS that would break up as it crossed the mountains, so therefor I really question the whole motive behind calling this a huge bust. It's not like the SPC had a moderate risk out and nothing happened, it was a borderline event that they felt was enough to qualify as "slight risk." Thursday's activity in the Mid-South turned out pretty much as planned... Monday's storm system would actually pose a much greater threat when specifically looking at dynamics...question is will Gulf Coast activity hinder moisture transport? And just how strong will our wedge boundary be in the Carolinas on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 I have to agree on this one...even for my area in Western North Carolina the worst case scenario was a QLCS that would break up as it crossed the mountains, so therefor I really question the whole motive behind calling this a huge bust. It's not like the SPC had a moderate risk out and nothing happened, it was a borderline event that they felt was enough to qualify as "slight risk." Thursday's activity in the Mid-South turned out pretty much as planned... Monday's storm system would actually pose a much greater threat when specifically looking at dynamics...question is will Gulf Coast activity hinder moisture transport? And just how strong will our wedge boundary be in the Carolinas on Monday? Thanks for the response as you can tell I am still learning. Looking at the GFS this morning I am curious to hear your thoughts on the severe plots and what to make of them. For monday there does appear to be abundant moisture but the severe maps all have weaker totals for surface cape, total totals, and base lift compared to the 00z GFS from Thursday night. The one main difference I see is on the helicity map. What should I be looking for on these maps that would indicate a better severe threat? Does a lot of it play on how much moisture is available? Once again just trying to learn and get better so I can contribute more and not start anymore useless threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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