bkviking Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Anyone hear of this or know any details about this? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/10738343/Forecasters-find-new-formula-for-long-range-weather.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crocodile23 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Anyone hear of this or know any details about this? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/10738343/Forecasters-find-new-formula-for-long-range-weather.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter By Padraic Flanagan 11:29PM BST 01 Apr 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Davenport Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Anyone hear of this or know any details about this? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/10738343/Forecasters-find-new-formula-for-long-range-weather.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter It's via improved predictability of NAO state, thus is more useful in the NH winter. The method seems to make use of the UK Met Office's GloSea5 high top model (trumpeted when I saw Adam Scaife speak at ECMWF about 18 months ago) which has an upper boundary at 85km - but allied with improved understanding of analog techniques: 1. Interannual NAO variations driven by ENSO. 2, North Atlantic SSTs - particularly state of the subpolar gyre in the preceding November. 3. Late fall Arctic sea ice, especially in the Kara Sea (after Cohen). 4. QBO. These are no surprise to most of us I'm sure, but when mediated by the GloSea5 seem to be refined. As well as the model's high upper boundary and better stratospheric modelling, it has higher ocean resolution and "interactive sea ice physics". Research letter here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059637/full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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