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April 2014 Observations


Crapper Jim

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Was forecast for 31 this morn.

Saw no evidence (haven't checked) that it got that cold. No frost at 7:30am.

WOW... The Board is DEAD! Can I start dancing through it naked???

It was 32 imby this morning , Jim. I thought it would be a few degrees colder, I think we dodged a bullet. The winds kept the frost at bay, and tonight should be around 35/36 I would guess and warmer on out. Just wondering if we will get any rain fri/sat night? Planning an all night fishing trip Sat night!!
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WOW... The Board is DEAD!  Can I start dancing through it naked???

 

Under no circumstances would that be considered a good idea.  Who wants to see that?  So, the answer is unequivocally, "No."

 

Down to 30.9 IMBY this morning.  That's two mornings in a row here in mid-April with below freezing temps and frost.  I had to scrape off the windshield both mornings.  Today continues to be quite cool outside.  It feels cooler than yesterday, IMO, but I haven't checked the actual temps to verify my belief.

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With the incoming rain tomorrow and this weekend the Alapaha River in Statenville,GA could cause some problems.

 

 

stng1_hg.png

All this talk about "heavy rain".  

 

<Guess I should have done my "streaking" today.  Local forecast check indicates little.  Satellite looks

interesting in the Gulf.  

 

Mmmm.  GSP Discussion:

 

IN TERMS OF PWAT...MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM NEVER GETS ALARMINGLY

HIGH AS FAR NORTH AS OUR CWFA EVEN ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS OR NAEFS

ANOMALY PLOTS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE LOW STAYING TO

OUR SOUTH ON ALL THE OPNL GUIDANCE AND ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

SREF HAS JUST ONE MEMBER TRACKING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING EVEN

MODEST CAPE INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER LAPSE

RATES REMAIN FAVORABLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER

TROUGH...SO CONVECTIVE RAIN RATES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

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Wednesday morning my Sat forecast was sunny, 72º.

Here's the latest.

Periods of rain. High near 52. Northeast wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Quite a difference.

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SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAW AND CHILLY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND A
STEADY NE FLOW AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE HIGH FORECAST TO THE NORTH... AND THE EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CLOUDINESS SATURDAY... THE THOUGHT IS TO
UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS BACK TO A FEW DEGREES OF THE FORECAST
WET BULB TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD YIELD READINGS THAT SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE NORTH... AND 50S ELSEWHERE SATURDAY. A
GOOD 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (SOUND FAMILIAR??).

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