NNE Spring

[J.Spin]

Amazing widespread totals in eastern New England...would've been a relative toaster bath for western New England like VT/CT/W.MA haha.

 

image.jpg

 

Well, neither of us were alive then, but I think turns in the Greens would have been fine based on the 10-20” the map shows from the spine eastward.  There’s no huge spike visible in the Mt. Mansfield snowpack plot for those dates (see plot below), so it clearly wasn’t a massive dump, but the Mt. Mansfield Co-Op recorded 13.5” of snow during the period.  With the known deficiency of their collection method, something around 20” wouldn’t be surprising.  PF, I’m surprised that you don’t have access to Stowe’s historical snow reports – or did they not do much for snow reports back then?

 

 

Based on some of the experiences reported here, it’s interesting that that storm doesn’t have an entry in Wikipedia; the one that comes up when I search for February 1969 nor’easter is the “Lindsay Storm” from February 8-10.

 

The more notable 1969 storm in our neck of the woods, which actually ranks higher on the NESIS scale than either of those February storms, is the December 25-27, 1969 nor'easter, which does have its own Wikipedia entry.  My parents have told me about that one in Burlington, and how for a couple of days you would just go outside every few hours and there would be a bunch of additional snow to shovel.  That one was definitely a bigger hit for Mt. Mansfield, and you can see the spike in snow depth during that period on the plot above.  Based on the map below, that storm was definitely one for Vermont and Northern New York, sort of like the Valentines’ Day 2007 Storm.

 

 

I was just thinking about your toaster bath comment; yeah I guess there can be mini ones, but think about it, you’re essentially immune to that sort of stuff on the much larger, seasonal scale.  There are probably a few exceptions (perhaps even ’68-’69 was one) but in general, the Northern Greens jackpot on snowfall over the entirety of Eastern North America… every year.  In baseball, that’s like losing a few series throughout the season, but winning the World Series, or at least the division series or pennant… every year.  Even the Yankees don’t have records like that.

[powderfreak]

Cleaned up the Mansfield null values for you, 94 for comparison, check the values though, different sets, great winter except for your Jan and my March

Nice work dude. For all the joking aside, pretty close winter in the overall trends...slowish start through second half of January, then picking up and a strong finish. 93-94 turned a bit earlier (only by like two weeks or so though, no two years are perfect) in mid-January it looks, but its pretty darn similar. Probably not going to find another year to match it better anyway.

Looking at some of the El Nino years, there are some pretty strong starts in December per the snow depth data, with more uncertainty in March. Wonder if that Nino holds if we almost do the opposite of last year with an good first half and slower second half.

[J.Spin]

...great winter except for your Jan and my March

 

I’m still not sold on putting December anywhere near great – 60% of average snowfall and a big ice storm isn’t going to cut it – especially if there hasn’t already been a deep snowpack established.  It’s interesting to note that the first half of December ’93 looks a bit lean as well.

[powderfreak]

Well, neither of us were alive then, but I think turns in the Greens would have been fine based on the 10-20” the map shows from the spine eastward.  There’s no huge spike visible in the Mt. Mansfield snowpack plot for those dates (see plot below), so it clearly wasn’t a massive dump, but the Mt. Mansfield Co-Op recorded 13.5” of snow during the period.  With the known deficiency of their collection method, something around 20” wouldn’t be surprising.  PF, I’m surprised that you don’t have access to Stowe’s historical snow reports – or did they not do much for snow reports back then?

 

I really don't have any resort snowfall records prior to the mid-90s.  I have a feeling things becoming more computerized around that time has something to do with it.  I heard in the past they would sort of do the reports on chalkboards in the base lodges and things like that.  I have no idea when online reports started.  In fact, way back in the day I heard they used to give trail conditions for each individual trail...patrol would ski it and then give it a rating of like Excellent, Good, Poor, etc.  That was probably in the 50s and 60s.

 

Anyway, looking at the COOP snowfall totals...as much as I dislike the collection method, you can still get an idea of the type of winter if you look at it in the right context.

 

68-69 comes in with 327" (for reference, the 2000-2001 winter was 310", and last winter was 169")...so twice as much snowfall than last year fell into the bucket.  Knowing the ratio that usually occurs, a sheltered 3,000ft snowboard collection probably would've accumulated near 450" in 68-69 as most winters I've come in with 100-150" more than the bucket depending on amount of upslope and loft-building snowfalls we get (stuff that a sheltered calm snowboard would collect much better than an elevated can on a windy summit).

 

That must've been a huge winter overall, and the snow depth graph shows that too.  Thats what a 400-500" winter would look like.

[powderfreak]

I’m still not sold on putting December anywhere near great – 60% of average snowfall and a big ice storm isn’t going to cut it – especially if there hasn’t already been a deep snowpack established.  It’s interesting to note that the first half of December ’93 looks a bit lean as well.

 

As a month it wasn't great...November was great and the first two weeks of December were sweet.  The month from like November 10th (when the upper elevations got that 18" upslope event) to December 10th was great, IMO.  Early December there was a lot of terrain open, and the conditions were pretty sweet from what I remember.  Really the kicker was that ice/rain storm prior to Christmas...that halted everything and then it just never recovered in January.

 

It happens, but it was certainly frustrating at the time...punting like 6 weeks in the heart of winter, especially one of our normally very snow months with near-daily snowfalls in a lot of years.  However, Valentines Day through March was one of the most consistently sweet ski condition period you can have...there were very, very few days that weren't good.  It was like weeks of true packed powder on the groomed terrain, and the off-piste was all in fine shape throughout. 

[eekuasepinniW]

Stop talking about snow.

[dendrite]

Stop talking about snow.

Last year on this date we weren't done with snow yet.

[Ginx snewx]

As a month it wasn't great...November was great and the first two weeks of December were sweet. The month from like November 10th (when the upper elevations got that 18" upslope event) to December 10th was great, IMO. Early December there was a lot of terrain open, and the conditions were pretty sweet from what I remember. Really the kicker was that ice/rain storm prior to Christmas...that halted everything and then it just never recovered in January.

It happens, but it was certainly frustrating at the time...punting like 6 weeks in the heart of winter, especially one of our normally very snow months with near-daily snowfalls in a lot of years. However, Valentines Day through March was one of the most consistently sweet ski condition period you can have...there were very, very few days that weren't good. It was like weeks of true packed powder on the groomed terrain, and the off-piste was all in fine shape throughout.

yea without that Grinch storm Jan would have been much better for you guys.

[tamarack]

The more notable 1969 storm in our neck of the woods, which actually ranks higher on the NESIS scale than either of those February storms, is the December 25-27, 1969 nor'easter, which does have its own Wikipedia entry.  My parents have told me about that one in Burlington, and how for a couple of days you would just go outside every few hours and there would be a bunch of additional snow to shovel.  That one was definitely a bigger hit for Mt. Mansfield, and you can see the spike in snow depth during that period on the plot above.  Based on the map below, that storm was definitely one for Vermont and Northern New York, sort of like the Valentines’ Day 2007 Storm.

 

 

I was just thinking about your toaster bath comment; yeah I guess there can be mini ones, but think about it, you’re essentially immune to that sort of stuff on the much larger, seasonal scale.  There are probably a few exceptions (perhaps even ’68-’69 was one) but in general, the Northern Greens jackpot on snowfall over the entirety of Eastern North America… every year.  In baseball, that’s like losing a few series throughout the season, but winning the World Series, or at least the division series or pennant… every year.  Even the Yankees don’t have records like that.

 

Just a note on that map - the spot of 30" in Maine is bogus.  It's for Augusta, and here are the numbers for that period, followed by those for Farmington COOP.  AUG obs were at midnight, except depth probably at noon.  Farminngton obs were 7 AM (prob depths, too), thus the staggered dates.

Augusta:

12/25....18......0.......0.......0.....10

12/26....31.....11..2.93...15.0...10

12/27....51.....31..2.09...20.9...18

12/28....38.....27..0.02.....0........4  

Farmington

12/26....19....-17......0.......0.....21

12/27....33.......6..3.97...15.0...30

12/28....51.....27..5.99......0.....18

12/29....35.....21......0.......0.....18

 

 Seems obvious from temps, LE, and snowdepths that the changeover in AUG began late on 12/26, prob. was ZR right at midnight and plain RA for most of the 27th.  At Farmington the changeover would've been a few hours later, and by 7 AM on 12/27 it was above freezing with all RA.  Much of Western Maine got 4-8" RA atop 12-18" new snow, and some major flooding.  The AUG "pseudo-snow" issue is also in my UCC data for PWM and CON, with the same day2/post-changeover precip shown as snow at exactly 10:1 but with snowpack showing otherwise.

 

 

 

                                               

[Lava Rock]

Weekend weather is shaping up to be a dud. Summer 2009 redux?

[wxeyeNH]

No rain here in the Northern Lakes Region of NH today.(yet)  Rain in all directions but I've been in a hole with just drizzle and 52F. S VT looks like its getting pounded with near stationary cells.

[tamarack]

Weekend weather is shaping up to be a dud. Summer 2009 redux?

 

2009?  Them's fight'n' words. 

After reaching 86 on 5/21, my place went 68 days before touching 80 again, and in the period 5/22 thru 8/13 had just one 82 (July 29) amid the 60s and 70s, with a few 50s and even one 40s tossed in.  Met summer temp avg was 61.2 that year, and JJA fell just 0.18" short of two feet of rainfall.

[dendrite]

No rain here in the Northern Lakes Region of NH today.(yet)  Rain in all directions but I've been in a hole with just drizzle and 52F. S VT looks like its getting pounded with near stationary cells.

0.58" here...0.69" including yesterday. We had mod rain most of the afternoon.

[J.Spin]

As a month it wasn't great...November was great and the first two weeks of December were sweet.  The month from like November 10th (when the upper elevations got that 18" upslope event) to December 10th was great, IMO.  Early December there was a lot of terrain open, and the conditions were pretty sweet from what I remember.  Really the kicker was that ice/rain storm prior to Christmas...that halted everything and then it just never recovered in January.

 

It happens, but it was certainly frustrating at the time...punting like 6 weeks in the heart of winter, especially one of our normally very snow months with near-daily snowfalls in a lot of years.  However, Valentines Day through March was one of the most consistently sweet ski condition period you can have...there were very, very few days that weren't good.  It was like weeks of true packed powder on the groomed terrain, and the off-piste was all in fine shape throughout.

 

Absolutely, that was such a great stretch.  During most seasons there’s going to be a “meh” stretch for the slopes at some point; this one just happened to be January and some adjoining weeks on either end.  Based on the data I’ve got for our site, I’m starting to think of January snowfall in a tier below December and February though, perhaps due to the potential for those cold and dry periods with arctic air.  It’s certainly starting to make inroads into the snowfall averages calculated for our site; whereas December, January, and February all used to have snowfall averages around 40”, the January number has been falling:

 

 

I’ve only got eight seasons of data, so it’s possible that these past three Januarys are just a blip, and the month has similar average snowfall to the surrounding months, but it’s simply been more volatile than December and February in recent years.  January can certainly produce around here; I’ve got some Januarys in the 50-60” range in my data set, and it’s really going to take some of those types of Januarys to get the month back up in line with December and February as far as the data are concerned.  Perhaps that will happen with time.  Looking at your Stowe monthly snowfall data since the 2007-2008 season, January does come in the lowest of the three months, but it’s not quite as dramatic (Dec 67.7”; Jan 62.9”, Feb 75.6”).  The fact that we had such a poor January this past season was certainly a low point, but I don’t have quite the expectations for it that I do for December, so the underperformance there, although not as egregious, certainly didn’t help.  Good snow for the holiday period, like we saw in December 2012, is just a really nice plus.  December can also be great with those days upon days of snowfall as you mentioned, but that just wasn’t the way the pattern went this past season.  Apparently December’s got some pretty decent moisture to support snowfall though, with the average liquid for our site up near five inches. 

[wxeyeNH]

0.58" here...0.69" including yesterday. We had mod rain most of the afternoon.

As of 6:30pm we had .35" up to 6am and .03" during the day today from drizzle.  Noticed all the rain from CON to exit 20.  S VT must be having some good totals!

[J.Spin]

 

A stronger Niño like 97-98 would be welcomed for the mountains. Moist winter means snowfall.

 

 

That winter looks pretty good except record heat in March shut it down early.

 

But for the Mansfield Co-Op at the summit, it recorded 260" that winter which is big for that station. It sounds paltry, but in the context of this past winter they recorded 169" (J.Spin in Waterbury comes close to beating the coop some years despite the 3,500ft elevation difference), and in 97-98 it had almost 100-more inches find its way into the 8-inch diameter precip gauge. I don't want to say it snowed that much more because who knows, but that much more snow found its way into the precip can and was there at 4pm in the afternoon each day. Regardless, snow depths show that was a decent winter in the mountains.

 

I was out in Montana in ’04-’05, but I was here in Vermont for the ’97-’98 season – the plot clearly shows that it was a decent start, with the 24-inch mark attained on 11/27/97, which is about two weeks ahead of average, the 40-inch mark reached only about a week later, and 4 to 5 feet of depth in place for the Christmas holidays.  That’s a great place to be in terms of snowpack for the holidays, since the average is something approaching 3 feet.  I looked into some of my trip reports from ’97-’98 and noticed that people were already skiing the trees before Thanksgiving, which is about three weeks ahead of average.  In my Sugarbush trip reports from November 22^nd and November 23^rd of that season, I talk about how the Sugarbush Ski Patrol was dropping the ropes on natural snow trails as fast as they could check them and set the appropriate ropes for side trails.  I don’t have any record of me jumping into the trees on either of those two days, probably because there were simply so many trails to ski, but people seemed to be getting out into the trees all over the state.  If you go to my reports, I’ve got links to several other trip reports from those days.  There was only 15 inches at the stake at that point though, which is definitely below the norm, but perhaps there had been some really dense snow that fell in prior events – if you look at that plot for the Mansfield stake you posted above, you can see that the snowpack that came in October never left.

[powderfreak]

Absolutely, that was such a great stretch. During most seasons there’s going to be a “meh” stretch for the slopes at some point; this one just happened to be January and some adjoining weeks on either end. Based on the data I’ve got for our site, I’m starting to think of January snowfall in a tier below December and February though, perhaps due to the potential for those cold and dry periods with arctic air. It’s certainly starting to make inroads into the snowfall averages calculated for our site; whereas December, January, and February all used to have snowfall averages around 40”, the January number has been falling:

I’ve only got eight seasons of data, so it’s possible that these past three Januarys are just a blip, and the month has similar average snowfall to the surrounding months, but it’s simply been more volatile than December and February in recent years. January can certainly produce around here; I’ve got some Januarys in the 50-60” range in my data set, and it’s really going to take some of those types of Januarys to get the month back up in line with December and February as far as the data are concerned. Perhaps that will happen with time. Looking at your Stowe monthly snowfall data since the 2007-2008 season, January does come in the lowest of the three months, but it’s not quite as dramatic (Dec 67.7”; Jan 62.9”, Feb 75.6”). The fact that we had such a poor January this past season was certainly a low point, but I don’t have quite the expectations for it that I do for December, so the underperformance there, although not as egregious, certainly didn’t help. Good snow for the holiday period, like we saw in December 2012, is just a really nice plus. December can also be great with those days upon days of snowfall as you mentioned, but that just wasn’t the way the pattern went this past season. Apparently December’s got some pretty decent moisture to support snowfall though, with the average liquid for our site up near five inches.

Yeah I've been starting to wonder about January...I think looking at the Mansfield COOP, the past few January's have been lower than average, but yet it wouldn't surprise me if the month on a whole runs a little less than DEC/FEB. In January we are very prone to cold arctic air which means dry, like you said, and that could certainly be the cause with the mean jet stream reaching it's normally furthest south latitude...and that's the climo time for suppressed snowstorms (relative to NNE).

February has actually been the most consistent month I think in my Stowe data over the past 5 winters...just a reliable snow month with only small deviations lately. December seems to be more "moody" but there's usually good QPF around...whether it's ice/snow/rain, it seems to be a relatively wet month (you also pointed this out).

I think January's snowfall total is more fluff than substance most of the time, so it relies on upslope which has been a bit absent the past couple January's. That's the month that seems to do lots of small fluffs and hinges on getting on just one or two larger 10"+ events. It is the month we seem to have the most "fake snow" as folks on here would call it...inches with low QPF. Last year was just so odd in tat it was wet due to multiple rains, but snowfall was well below normal (while temperatures were below normal). The chances of that combo repeating has to be pretty small.

It'll be interesting to see where January shakes out in the next few years...we may be "due" by regressing to the mean which has to be higher than some of the past few January's aside from 2011.

[powderfreak]

Saturday of Memorial Day weekend in the Colorado Rockies...sort of looks like wxeye's property last year on Memorial Day Weekend, haha.

[wxeyeNH]

Line of showers has passed through.  Gave us about .10" and knocked the temperature back into the low 50's.  Picture from the webcam showing the scud rising up and forming low clouds, love living with a great view, always something going on.

 

By the way that plumb in the forefront is not a fire but steam rising straight up forming the cloud.

[tamarack]

I’ve only got eight seasons of data, so it’s possible that these past three Januarys are just a blip, and the month has similar average snowfall to the surrounding months, but it’s simply been more volatile than December and February in recent years.

It's more of a blip at my place. Thru 2012, Jan and Feb were essentially tied for avg snowfall, though Feb did it in 9% fewer days. The past 2 years Jan has totaled 10.8" and Feb 64.0", so they're now 3.5" apart. Jan 2013 ranked last of 15 Januarys, then 2014 came in 0.6" lower at 5.1". Only one other Jan has had under 11", 2004 with 7.7". However, Jan 2014 was different from the other two low-snow months:

Jan 2004....0.57"....7.7" Driest Jan of 16, also coldest

Jan 2013....1.32"....5.7" 3rd driest, slightly milder than avg

Jan 2014....3.77"....5.1" 13th driest (4th wettest), also 4th coldest

Ironically, prior to 2013 Jan had been the least volatile of the 4 winter months here, with 9 of 14 years' snowfall in the range 22.5" to 27.5".

[eekuasepinniW]

Two ferocious looking rounds of showers came through today while I was busily planting things.  Looked impressive but rain rates were boring.

 

.40"

 

One (1) rumble of thunder.

[wxeyeNH]

Two ferocious looking rounds of showers came through today while I was busily planting things.  Looked impressive but rain rates were boring.

 

.40"

 

One (1) rumble of thunder.

The storm that moved south around 6pm from Plymouth gave me .25".  Missed core by about 2 miles but a friend said 1/2 inch hail in New Hampton.

[dendrite]

Heavy, heavy fog this AM. Down to 46.0F.

Socked in.

[tamarack]

First full-sun morning in a week or so, temp to low 40s despite overcast for the first half of the night.

[J.Spin]

It's more of a blip at my place. Thru 2012, Jan and Feb were essentially tied for avg snowfall, though Feb did it in 9% fewer days. The past 2 years Jan has totaled 10.8" and Feb 64.0", so they're now 3.5" apart. Jan 2013 ranked last of 15 Januarys, then 2014 came in 0.6" lower at 5.1". Only one other Jan has had under 11", 2004 with 7.7". However, Jan 2014 was different from the other two low-snow months:

 

Jan 2004....0.57"....7.7" Driest Jan of 16, also coldest

Jan 2013....1.32"....5.7" 3rd driest, slightly milder than avg

Jan 2014....3.77"....5.1" 13th driest (4th wettest), also 4th coldest

 

Ironically, prior to 2013 Jan had been the least volatile of the 4 winter months here, with 9 of 14 years' snowfall in the range 22.5" to 27.5".

 

Thanks for the data Tamarack, very interesting.  It looks like these past couple of Januarys have been lean on snowfall in a lot of NNE.

[powderfreak]

Jan 2013 ranked last of 15 Januarys, then 2014 came in 0.6" lower at 5.1". Only one other Jan has had under 11", 2004 with 7.7".

That's good to know...so recently it's just been poor patterns and a bit of a fluke. It's hard to not think about given that January in most folks mind is deep deep winter...not a month that gets beat by November for snowfall. It's been a hole in winter the past three seasons, with January 2011 the last time we had anywhere near normal snowfall.

[dendrite]

1 year ago today...

[powderfreak]

Nice Dendrite, the texture of the snow shows how freakin huge those aggregates must've been. I was just looking at pictures from Whiteface in the Adirondacks, which orographics drills with NE flow. 3 feet on Memorial Day weekend still blows my mind, even if it's high elevation.

Mount Mansfield showed 13.2" of snow FWIW (latest 12"+ on record, no surprise) on 3.29" of precipitation on the 25-26th. In fact, I forget if it was all one big system, but between May 22 through May 26th Mount Mansfield picked up a whopping 8.74" of precipitation, including 3.30" on May 24th alone.

[powderfreak]

Nice day in VT.

[dendrite]

Had a weak TS just come through...only 1 tip of the bucket. Quite a few rumbles on the backside of the cell though including a "bolt from the blue."