April 2-4 Severe Storm

[jaxjagman]

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AREAS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL CONTINUE SSEWD
   THROUGH CA BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO THE SWRN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY AND
   EMERGING ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
   PRECEDING THIS FEATURE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER
   THE SRN PLAINS AND MOST LIKELY EXTEND FROM A LEE LOW OVER THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS THROUGH NRN OK INTO SRN/ERN KS...SRN MO INTO THE OH
   VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIFT A MODEST DISTANCE NWD
   DURING THE DAY. DRYLINE WILL SET UP FROM WRN TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK
   AND MIX EWD. NRN END OF THE DRYLINE WILL INTERSECT THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NRN OK OR SCNTRL KS.

   ...OK THROUGH NRN TX AND ERN KS...

   RICHER GULF MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED
   THROUGH WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL
   500 MB TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
   /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ ACROSS THE OK AND TX WARM SECTOR. WARMER AIR
   AT THE BASE OF THE EML WILL LIKELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR TO
   SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION MUCH OF THE DAY. ZONE OF DEEP MIXING
   AND POSSIBLE DRYLINE BULGE MAY DEVELOP OVER WRN OK WITHIN CORRIDOR
   OF STRONGER 700 MB FLOW. INITIATION OF ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN
   POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THESE
   STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS
   ACROSS CNTRL OK WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STRONGLY UNSTABLE...BUT
   ALSO MORE CAPPED. GIVEN ONLY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTH OF CAP
   IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR...THE EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG THE DRYLINE REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY WITH SWD
   DISTANCE INTO TX.

   SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /40-50 KT/ AS
   WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO BECOME
   FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLY
   TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN A SMALL WINDOW AS THE LLJ INCREASES DURING
   THE EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH
   AFTER SUNSET AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.

   CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH FROM ERN
   KS INTO MO DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THETA-E ADVECTION
   AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ. ELEVATED
   SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN INITIAL
   THREAT...BUT ANY STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY MAY
   EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

   ...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION...

   WARMER TEMPERATURES AT EML BASE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CAP TO
   SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION DURING THE DAY.
   MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA ALONG THE WARM
   CONVEYOR BELT...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
   NOT BE ROOTED AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
   THE PERIOD. IT IS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF
   THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS MO WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH
   ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT...SEVERE THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL GIVEN
   CAPPING CONCERNS WHICH COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
   DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM ERN
   PORTIONS OF THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY WITHIN WARM
   ADVECTION REGIME ALONG ERN EDGE OF THE WARMER EML IN AN ENVIRONMENT
   OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   PROBABLY REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BUT MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
   MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

 

 

 

 

 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...WRN TN VALLEY AND A PORTION OF
   THE OH VALLEY...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD
   THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY ON
   THURSDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH
   THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY MORNING
   A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW SITUATED OVER SERN KS
   SWWD THROUGH NRN OK AND NWRN TX. THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD
   OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD
   STRETCH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD
   THROUGH WRN TN...LA AND THE TX COASTAL AREA. WARM FRONT EXTENDING
   EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL OR NRN MO AND THE OH VALLEY WILL LIFT
   SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY.

   ...ERN SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER-MID MS...WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS...

   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH
   DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM
   THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY. PORTIONS OF THIS
   AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TAKE ON A POSITIVE TO SLIGHTLY
   NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO
   THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY. A MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PRECEDE THIS
   FEATURE. FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FROM ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/ERN
   TX. HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WARM
   SECTOR WHICH COMBINED WITH DIABATIC WARMING SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD
   WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM AR
   INTO SRN AND CNTRL MO. THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT
   FALLS ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE
   TN AND OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. MID-UPPER JET STREAK ATTENDING THE
   PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.
   ANY STORMS INITIATING IN WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. POTENTIAL
   WILL ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER-MID MS
   VALLEY INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL
   LIKELY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS OVERNIGHT WITH A
   CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS...TN AND OH
   VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

[jaxjagman]

Memphis NAM

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Nashville NAM

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Memphis GFS

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Nashville GFS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nrgjeff]

The 12Z NAM is in; and, it shows a beautiful sequence Wed/Thu from the Plains into the Mid South. While lots can go wrong from CF surge Wednesday to other junkvection Thursday, verbatim it is a sweet model run. Regrettably work training keeps me out of the field; otherwise, I'd be driving to Oklahoma today to position for the Wed/Thu sequence back to the Mid South.

 

Day 1 thunderstorms will affect Wednesday. Worst case would promote a CF surge through Kansas, but Oklahoma would probably still be open for business. Some models indicate OK is better either way, except for chaser convergence. Won't get into much Wednesday detail here.

 

Thursday should be in our zone, perhaps a Mid South mauler. NAM shows strong storms developing in the flat agricultural area of east Arkansas. Still has that look of mixing out best 65-68 Td air, but I suspect moisture would pool better locally on outflow boundaries, which will be there due to prior night convection. Veer back veer presents a slight challenge; however, it is not a deal breaker in stronger setups. Chaser would hope for just a little more upper energy to come out and enhance speed shear to compensate. Local low level helicity should also be enhanced on boundaries. While western Arkansas is horrible terrain, eastern Arkansas is flat and ag interests have cleared a lot of trees. DL should be back in horrible chase terrain (east OK / west AR) so I would play the WF or other boundaries in east Arkansas.

 

PS. Good discussion about both days also in Central/West pinned thread.

[jaxjagman]

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS/OK/N TX EWD INTO THE
   MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO THE
   FOUR CORNERS STATES WITH SUBSTANTIAL SWLY FLOW ALOFT PRECEDING IT
   ACROSS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE
   TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING E OF THE MS RIVER AS THE NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH
   MOVES INTO QUEBEC. IN ADDITION TO THE MAIN NRN JET...AN ACTIVE SRN
   STREAM JET WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO AFFECT TX
   INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

   AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST WED MORNING
   ACROSS NWRN TX/SWRN OK...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE
   I-44 CORRIDOR. A STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
   EARLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN KS INTO MO N OF THE WARM
   FRONT.

   LATER IN THE DAY...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS
   THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD AND THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NWWD INTO SERN
   CO. MID 60S F BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE NWD BEHIND THE
   WARM FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM NWRN OK INTO ERN KS BY
   00Z. A DRYLINE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CNTRL TX INTO WRN OK
   WITH TRIPLE POINT AROUND NWRN OK AT 00Z.

   HEATING AND MOISTENING WILL LEAD TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
   WARM SECTOR...AND WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
   ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
   INCREASES AND BACKS. THIS WILL CREATE A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL AND SRN
   PLAINS INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS.

   ...SRN KS INTO OK AND NWRN TX DURING THE DAY...
   STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3500 J/KG WILL
   MATERIALIZE S OF THE WARM FRONT AND E OF THE DRYLINE OWING TO STEEP
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S F.
   WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FARTHER W...THE DRYLINE WILL TEND TO
   REMAIN STATIONARY OR BACK SLIGHTLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
   CAPPING WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY...BUT
   CIN WILL BE ERODED IN A NARROW ZONE OF DEEPER MIXING NEAR THE
   DRYLINE FROM NWRN TX ACROSS WRN OK AND TO THE TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN
   OK. DAYTIME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
   WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DRYLINE STORMS.
   THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NWRN OK AND
   EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN/SERN KS DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE WARM
   FRONT. 

   ...AR DURING THE DAY...
   SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM BY MIDDAY
   ACROSS AR AS MOISTURE RETURNS NEWD WITH A 40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
   VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AS WELL AS COOL MIDLEVEL
   TEMPERATURES COULD FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO. THIS THREAT WILL BE A BIT CONDITIONAL AS FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY COOL BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LFC
   NEAR 700 MB.

   ...ERN KS...ERN OK...MO...AR OVERNIGHT...
   HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
   NEWD ACROSS FAR NRN OK OR SRN KS. HERE...LIFTING OF MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE PERSISTENT AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS. EVEN WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS LATE...HAIL AND WIND WILL
   STILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER SE INTO MO AND AR...THE BROAD WARM SECTOR
   AND AMPLE SHEAR WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR A FEW SEVERE WITH ANY
   STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 04/02/2014

 

 

 

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOW-MID MS
   VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ERN PORTIONS OF
   THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND OH
   VALLEY...

   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY WITH DAMAGING
   WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
   LOWER-MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED ON TIMING...AMPLITUDE AND GENERAL
   CHARACTER OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT NEWD
   THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY ON
   THURSDAY. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS
   VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BENEATH CORRIDOR OF
   INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE. BY THURSDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL
   LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE SFC LOW SITUATED OVER SERN KS SWWD THROUGH
   NWRN OK AND NWRN TX. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD OVERTAKING THE
   DRYLINE SITUATED ACROSS OK AND TX. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
   FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   AREA SWWD THROUGH WRN TN...LA AND THE TX COASTAL AREA. WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL/NRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY
   EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY.

   ...ERN SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...

   VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS
   IT EJECTS ENEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATER THURSDAY. RICHER GULF
   MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY ADVECTED INTO MUCH OF
   ERN TX AND LA AND WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY AT
   THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY. A FEW
   ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR MOST OF WARM
   SECTOR WILL SUFFER FROM EARLY CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING EXCEPT FARTHER
   NORTH WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM NRN MO INTO THE
   OH VALLEY. A FEW BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LAYER CLOUD DECK SHOULD RESULT
   IN AT LEAST MODEST WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER.

   SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BECOME PROBABLE ACROSS
   THE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CAP
   WEAKENS WHERE STRENGTHENING LLJ WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL
   COINCIDE WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS MAY
   INITIALLY BE DISCRETE IN CHARACTER...AND VERTICAL SHEAR AND
   LOW-LEVEL HODORAPHS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL
   EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY DURING THE
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. OTHER STORMS
   WILL LIKELY INITIATE FARTHER FROM ERN KS/WRN MO...ERN OK AND
   POSSIBLY INTO ERN TX AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE...AND
   SOME STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS
   OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND.

   ...OH VALLEY REGION...

   MOSTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY
   THURSDAY...PRIMARILY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND
   NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT
   EAST DURING THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND NEWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN
   THIS REGION SHOULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
   DEEP LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF MCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
   UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW
   TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ..DIAL.. 04/02/2014

 

 

 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SERN
   STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH
   THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL
   OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TRAILING FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH
   THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND SERN STATES...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
   AND CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

   ...PORTION OF THE SERN STATES THROUGH TN AND OH VALLEYS...

   A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE OH...TN AND
   LOWER MS VALLEYS EARLY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT PRE-CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
   WILL EXIST IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS FOR A THREAT
   OF DAMAGING WIND AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD DURING THE MORNING INTO
   THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR MOIST AXIS TO
   EVENTUALLY BE PINCHED OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY...WHILE THE STRONGER
   LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND DEEPER FORCING GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM
   THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR PRESENT OVER THE SERN STATES. THIS
   SUGGESTS GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM MORNING INTO MID
   AFTERNOON.

[jaxjagman]

 

 

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/NORTHERN LA/MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHERN
   MS/WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY/SOUTHERN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   VALID 022020Z - 022245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED
   ANYWHERE WITHIN A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN AR/NORTHERN LA TO
   NORTHERN MS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF TN/KY...AND SOUTHERN IL. WHILE THE
   DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED PENDING
   INCREASING SIGNS/CONFIDENCE OF STRONGER TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AT LEAST A
   CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES.

   DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
   MO TO ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER OH RIVER INTO PARTS OF KY. TO
   THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...AMPLE CLOUD COVER HAS GENERALLY PERSISTED
   WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS. IN SPITE OF THESE
   CLOUDS...THE WARMING/MOISTENING NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
   LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INITIALLY
   ELEVATED SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED FROM EASTERN AR
   NORTHEASTWARD TO AROUND THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS IN CLOSE
   PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

   ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS...INCLUDING THE EXACT MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF
   ANY SEVERE RISK...ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A MOIST
   ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH MASS CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE IS MODEST
   AWAY FROM THE WARM FRONT...THESE STORMS COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
   SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
   SUPERCELLS GIVEN MORE THAN ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR. PROVIDED THIS
   SCENARIO...SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WOULD
   BE POSSIBLE.

 

[Jon]

 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   0227 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SERN

   STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH

   THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL

   OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TRAILING FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH

   THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND SERN STATES...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC

   AND CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

   ...PORTION OF THE SERN STATES THROUGH TN AND OH VALLEYS...

   A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE OH...TN AND

   LOWER MS VALLEYS EARLY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT PRE-CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY

   WILL EXIST IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS FOR A THREAT

   OF DAMAGING WIND AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD DURING THE MORNING INTO

   THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR MOIST AXIS TO

   EVENTUALLY BE PINCHED OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY...WHILE THE STRONGER

   LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND DEEPER FORCING GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM

   THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR PRESENT OVER THE SERN STATES. THIS

   SUGGESTS GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM MORNING INTO MID

   AFTERNOON.

Expanding on Day 3

 

Latest CIPS analog guidance based on GFS is pretty interesting this time period...

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

Memphis around noonish tom

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BamaChemE]

So... Bad news for Huntsville, huh?

[Stovepipe]

That was a nice booming frog strangler that came through around 5am this morning.  I'll take more of those, thanks.

[ladyjmayo]

Yeah, that made a nice complement to my thunderstorm sound effects track that I play all night to help me sleep.  :-D   I hope it is still looking good for a nice stormy afternoon tomorrow.

[jaxjagman]

 

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 55
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   830 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
     EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA
     WESTERN KENTUCKY
     SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
     NORTHWEST TENNESSEE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 830 PM
     UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
   CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DYERSBURG
   TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

 

[BamaChemE]

Just thought I'd share with my fellow Valley brothers... 

 

[Stovepipe]

 

[nrgjeff]

MRX apparently agrees with high-res NWP forecasting new development this afternoon. We have a lot of high and mid level clouds to dissipate for such a scenario, but it can happen. Short wave is forecast out of MS/AL but might pass too soon. Looks like a smaller feature in Louisiana, a convectively induced vort max CIV, but forecast to move straight east through the Deep South. Timing of the CIV is late afternoon, but south of the Valley. 12Z NAM does see that CIV and SPC must as well per the Gulf Coast slight. I'm not seeing a strong encore, but much has over achieved starting in winter.

[jaxjagman]

I woke up around 5 in the morn by the clap of thunder,pretty decent rainfall the dbz on my radar was in upper 50's, as it left us in Rutherford county just east of us was placed under a tornado warning but i didnt see any hook