snowlover2 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 SPC hinting at the day 3 possibly needing a moderate risk in later outlooks. ...ERN SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER-MID MS...WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT ON THURSDAY WITHDAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROMTHE LOWER-MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY. PORTIONS OF THISAREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TAKE ON A POSITIVE TO SLIGHTLYNEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTOTHE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY. A MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH STEEPLAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PRECEDE THISFEATURE. FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE MAYCONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FROM ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/ERNTX. HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WARMSECTOR WHICH COMBINED WITH DIABATIC WARMING SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULDWEAKEN ALLOWING FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM ARINTO SRN AND CNTRL MO. THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHTFALLS ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION AND SHIFT EWD INTO THETN AND OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. MID-UPPER JET STREAK ATTENDING THEPROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.ANY STORMS INITIATING IN WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUPERCELLSTRUCTURES WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. POTENTIALWILL ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER-MID MSVALLEY INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATEAFTERNOON AND EVENING.OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STORMS WILLLIKELY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS OVERNIGHT WITH ACONTINUED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS...TN AND OHVALLEYS OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Yep. Looking like the first quality chase target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Looks like kind of a tricky call here. There's a chance we may not get solidly into the warm sector until later Thursday (but not like it will be cold during the day) but given the deepening system and models advertising respectable elevated instability (and possibly some surface based instability) well into the overnight hours, I think there will be some severe threat here well after dark. Best ingredients may be found farther south/west though as the SPC outlook indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 New GFS indicating that there could be action up LAF way this Thursday evening as well. Deepening the slp and a ton of moisture being pulled northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 It's a shame the timing sucks for IN. If this whole thing slowed down by ~12 hours it'd be a good local chase day, but time's pretty much up on that happening. Originally I thought maybe there would be a play in Ohio Friday, but it seems like the trend is to keep reducing instability each model cycle to the point where it's essentially nil on the GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 2, 2014 Author Share Posted April 2, 2014 Day 2 moderate risk. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1258 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014VALID 031200Z - 041200Z...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOW-MID MSVALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ERN PORTIONS OFTHE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND OHVALLEY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY WITH DAMAGINGWIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM THELOWER-MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS....SYNOPSIS...MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED ON TIMING...AMPLITUDE AND GENERALCHARACTER OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT NEWDTHROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY ONTHURSDAY. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE MID MSVALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BENEATH CORRIDOR OFINCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE. BY THURSDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILLLIKELY EXTEND FROM THE SFC LOW SITUATED OVER SERN KS SWWD THROUGHNWRN OK AND NWRN TX. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD OVERTAKING THEDRYLINE SITUATED ACROSS OK AND TX. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THEFRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKESAREA SWWD THROUGH WRN TN...LA AND THE TX COASTAL AREA. WARM FRONTEXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL/NRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEYEARLY THURSDAY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY....ERN SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT ASIT EJECTS ENEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATER THURSDAY. RICHER GULFMOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY ADVECTED INTO MUCH OFERN TX AND LA AND WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY ATTHE START OF THIS PERIOD. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEPLAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY INPRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY. A FEWELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LOWER MSVALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR MOST OF WARMSECTOR WILL SUFFER FROM EARLY CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING EXCEPT FARTHERNORTH WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM NRN MO INTO THEOH VALLEY. A FEW BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LAYER CLOUD DECK SHOULD RESULTIN AT LEAST MODEST WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARYLAYER.SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BECOME PROBABLE ACROSSTHE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CAPWEAKENS WHERE STRENGTHENING LLJ WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS WILLCOINCIDE WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS MAYINITIALLY BE DISCRETE IN CHARACTER...AND VERTICAL SHEAR ANDLOW-LEVEL HODORAPHS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FORSUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILLEVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY DURING THEEVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. OTHER STORMSWILL LIKELY INITIATE FARTHER FROM ERN KS/WRN MO...ERN OK ANDPOSSIBLY INTO ERN TX AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE...ANDSOME STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSSOVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND....OH VALLEY REGION...MOSTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLYTHURSDAY...PRIMARILY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG ANDNORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFTEAST DURING THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THESTRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND NEWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSERATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INTHIS REGION SHOULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT ASDEEP LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF MCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVEUPSTREAM ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEWTORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...DIAL.. 04/02/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Day 2 moderate risk. I overlaid the county outlines on SPC's website and the northern border of the 30% hatched cuts right through LAF/Tippecanoe county. Kinda goes with what I was saying about it being a tricky call as far as whether we get into a better threat here. Latest models look relatively similar to last night...surface based instability develops here especially during the evening/overnight hours but drops off as you go north. Can't rule out a nocturnal tornado threat but I suspect the main threat locally will be damaging wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 I overlaid the county outlines on SPC's website and the northern border of the 30% hatched cuts right through LAF/Tippecanoe county. Kinda goes with what I was saying about it being a tricky call as far as whether we get into a better threat here. Latest models look relatively similar to last night...surface based instability develops here especially during the evening/overnight hours but drops off as you go north. Can't rule out a nocturnal tornado threat but I suspect the main threat locally will be damaging wind. Yeah I agree, I do think there is a decent likelihood of a QLCS racing across IL/IN tomorrow evening and into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Just some context about the April 3 date. Everyone remembers it for the Super Outbreak but over half of the years since 1950 have had at least 1 tornado on that day. 1956, 1957, 1968, 1989 and 2012 had 20+ tornadoes. 1956 stands out the most for this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The 12z hi res NMM looks like it pops discrete storms near the warm front in central IL tomorrow evening after 0z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Tonight's NAM is looking half way decent especially over Northern MO near the low/wf. I imagine SPC may extend the moderate risk a little further NW to reflect what the NAM is showing tonight. The warm front may not get as far north as what the NAM is showing depending on how much precip is falling north of it so it may be something to watch. Am planning on chasing this system as its only about a 4.5 hour drive away and the fact this is the only event that I can chase for almost 2.5 weeks. I hate chasing in MO but at least the trees have no leaves on them attm This mornings GFS was showing another possible area over Western IL along I-72 an hour or so before sunset so will keep an eye on that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Looks like the STL area got hit this morning. And this right now in southern IL... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO623 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 700 AM CDT* AT 620 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ATORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BREESE...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUTSHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGETO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE ISLIKELY.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...BOULDER AROUND 635 AM CDT.SHATTUC AROUND 640 AM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HUEY...HOFFMAN AND FERRIN.THIS WARNING INCLUDES CARLYLE LAKE RECREATIONAL AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 The St. Louis Post Dispatch reports that the University City area was hit this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 The St. Louis Post Dispatch reports that the University City area was hit this morning Friend of mine lives down there. Said they got missed by only a block or two. http://www.stltoday.com/gallery/news/multimedia/storms-leave-behind-trail-of-damage-in-university-city/collection_0ee51322-534e-5f4a-a660-001b4138351e.html#0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 The HRRR is really keeping the front south of LAF tonight. The RAP on the other hand brings us into the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Let's play find the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 The HRRR is really keeping the front south of LAF tonight. The RAP on the other hand brings us into the game. I favor us spiking to AOA 60 but it may not happen until the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I favor us spiking to AOA 60 but it may not happen until the overnight hours. Seems reasonable based on the current front position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Forbes with a torcon of 8 for a good chunk of Arkansas and southern il today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Headed towards the St Louis Metro in about an hour if it continues on its current path. TORNADO WARNINGMOC071-073-151-032330-/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0012.140403T2306Z-140403T2330Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO606 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...GASCONADE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...* UNTIL 630 PM CDT* AT 602 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ATORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RICH FOUNTAIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Little activity in this thread, but I will post anyway... Confirmed tornado near the STL Metro moving into IL. TORNADO WARNINGILC119-163-MOC189-510-040145-/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0014.140404T0123Z-140404T0145Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO823 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...CENTRAL ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...* UNTIL 845 PM CDT* AT 816 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GLENDALE...ANDMOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SPOTTERSREPORTED A TORNADO NEAR TWIN OAKS AT 810 PM CDT.SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 large hook shape on a supercell around Jonesboro Illinois (east of Cape Girardeau MO). Tornado warning there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Anna, IL looks like it going to get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Seems reasonable based on the current front position. Front seems very sluggish. My earlier call is looking bad at this point. Temps will probably rise but doesn't look like anything close to what could've been. This also has ramifications with instability as we will be realizing little to nothing at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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