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Central PA & Fringes - Autumn dawns


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Happy January 86th!  Wow 18.3 here this morning.  Hard to believe that 86 days out from the first of January we are still hitting the teens this week.  I can honestly say that this by far is the most brutal winter I have ever experienced.  I have lived here for 12 years, and before that I lived in Baltimore near I-95.  Nothing compares to it in my 12 years here, or my prior life in Baltimore.  Cold and persistent snow for months has been relentless.  I agree that we are done with the teens, but that fact that we still have them today is a testament to the thype of winter we have had. 

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Looks like the official low for Harrisburg will be 20 degrees... once again we are 1-2 degrees off of breaking a record low in 2014...

 

Through the 26th:

Pittsburgh currently with 7th coldest March on record

 

Harrisburg currently with 9th coldest March on record - 5th coldest start to the year

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Bottomed out at 15.8F this morning. According to the records at MU this is the coldest start to a calender year since 1994 (20 years). This month will make 3 straight months with significant negative temperature departures for our area. With such a cold start to the year it is very likely that we finish the year with negative temp departures.

 

http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/climo/t-anomaly.htm

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Looks like there could be some wet snow with the storm upcoming this weekend if enough dynamic cooling can happen with heavy enough precip. The NAM tonight has a burst of wet snow for most of the high elevations west of the Susquehanna for a while, enough for some accumulation maybe. Predominantly though this is a rain storm.

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Looks like there could be some wet snow with the storm upcoming this weekend if enough dynamic cooling can happen with heavy enough precip. The NAM tonight has a burst of wet snow for most of the high elevations west of the Susquehanna for a while, enough for some accumulation maybe. Predominantly though this is a rain storm.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see a few flakes, maybe early Sunday morning.

 

Monday is looking quite nice with temperatures getting into the 50s with full sunshine. Tuesday may be substantially warmer depending on how much mid-level cloud cover moves in during the afternoon. Southern areas will likely get into the 70s with more sun and ideal mixing conditions.

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I wouldn't be surprised to see a few flakes, maybe early Sunday morning.

 

Monday is looking quite nice with temperatures getting into the 50s with full sunshine. Tuesday may be substantially warmer depending on how much mid-level cloud cover moves in during the afternoon. Southern areas will likely get into the 70s with more sun and ideal mixing conditions.

Do you mind giving me a little snapshot of next Wed and Thurs? We have tix for Boston's games in Baltimore which is always incredibly tricky the first week of April, ha. :)

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Do you mind giving me a little snapshot of next Wed and Thurs? We have tix for Boston's games in Baltimore which is always incredibly tricky the first week of April, ha. :)

 

Maybe a few showers Wednesday, potentially more widespread on Thursday. A 500 mb shortwave will move over the plains into the Great Lakes region Tuesday, followed by more amplified trough with a track maybe farther south and east by Thursday. The associated system for Thursday could bring a warm front through (slowly perhaps) so the chance of rain would probably be a bit higher. It's still pretty far out in time so the important specifics are of course subject to change.

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Maybe a few showers Wednesday, potentially more widespread on Thursday. A 500 mb shortwave will move over the plains into the Great Lakes region Tuesday, followed by more amplified trough with a track maybe farther south and east by Thursday. The associated system for Thursday could bring a warm front through (slowly perhaps) so the chance of rain would probably be a bit higher. It's still pretty far out in time so the important specifics are of course subject to change.

Thank you - yeah it's 5-6 days out just hadn't looked at any pattern yet at all. If temps are decent I can deal with showers.

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Go O's! LoL

+1. I'm going to my 17th home opener on Monday. Greatest opening day memory was Cal taking the Rocket deep for a 3-run blast back in '89.

The '03 opener against Cleveland was delayed by an insane snow squall. My wife and I were in left field and for a few moments we lost sight of the light standards in left. All but zero visibility at the yards.

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+1. I'm going to my 17th home opener on Monday. Greatest opening day memory was Cal taking the Rocket deep for a 3-run blast back in '89.

The '03 opener against Cleveland was delayed by an insane snow squall. My wife and I were in left field and for a few moments we lost sight of the light standards in left. All but zero visibility at the yards.

Cool wish I was there. I do have tickets for both Chicago series in August. One game against white sox and other against cubs in wrigley field. Should be awesome.

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Winter Weather Advisory


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

302 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...A COATING OF FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF

SNOW EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL PUMP DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA

LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE AN INITIAL...SHALLOW LAYER OF

SUB-FREEZING AIR SEEPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO

RAIN...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO

SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS

EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...THEN SNOW

OF VARYING INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

PAZ010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042-300715-

/O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0019.140330T0700Z-140330T2000Z/

ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-

SOMERSET-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...

RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...JOHNSTOWN...

SOMERSET...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE

302 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EDT

SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT

FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...TOPPING A

THIN LAYER OF ICE UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* LOCATIONS...THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATE

TONIGHT...THEN PERIODS OF WET SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES

POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM ICE...THEN SNOW-COVERED ROADS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH

WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ON SUNDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING LATE TONIGHT...THEN

REMAINING BETWEEN 32 AND 35 DEGREES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

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Looks to be a classic late season winter storm unfolding the next 12-18 hours with an area wide moderate to heavy rainfall eventually transitioning to freezing rain and marginal wet snow event in the higher elevations of central and northern Penn. Wouldn't be surprised to see some of the highest Laurel's locations (above 2400') manage 6+ of snow if we have enough precip lingering around. Just off the Laurel's in AOO and UNV could manage an inch or so, with the tops of the local ridges (Brush, Tussey, Seven Mountains, etc) possibly managing several inches.

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I think the problem with any significant snow would be the dynamics of this event, which appear to be focused further to our east (forecasts of 3"+ if you look toward the Poconos, NJ, NYC/HV/LI). Naturally, the uppers (2,000'+ as noted above) would have a shot at something noteworthy, but I am wondering if we will have enough precip leftover to allow for such a changeover and snow event for those upstairs.

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Amazing how, even in a rain storm, Schuylkill County finds itself in one of the "dry zones". I don't know how others fared today, but I only have 0.41" in the gauge, and all of the heavier rain is both east and west of my location per the current radar depiction.

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Well it took all month but finally something on the ground that's somewhat measurable, a whopping 0.7" of snow. Heavy burst a bit ago has some of the road by the house covered in slush. It's enough that some of the roads are dangerous in spots, listening to the scanner the last 15-20 min I've heard 2 wrecks with one on the other side of town unfortunately being fatal. East of here in the next valley over and around US 22 near the Blair/Huntingdon line seems to be getting hit pretty hard this morning.

 

post-1507-0-01129200-1396187671_thumb.pn

 

Bulk of the lingering precip shield looks to be residing just south of State College and covering most of the region from Altoona east into the Sus Valley. With the changeover trying to work its way east, some of the ridges in the south central might end up with some accumulations. 

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