Central PA & Fringes - Autumn dawns

[Santa Clause]

Happy birthday buddy

[Santa Clause]

It was 62 and sunny on mine lol

[djr5001]

Through March 24, Harrisburg is sitting at 28.61 as average temp for 2014... good for 5th coldest start to a year on record.  1994 averaged 28.37 degrees for first 3 months.  We may get close to that value after today and tomorrow, but remainder of the month will likely push the average to end up 6th or 7th coldest start to a year. 

 

Also, currently 10th coldest March through the 24th but final week will likely drop that to about 20th, or as the NOAA climate maps will tell you... "Slightly below normal"

[Itstrainingtime]

Snow flurries for the past hour or so here.

[Big Jims Videos]

Been flurrying in Hershey off and on all morning

[Cashtown_Coop]

Everything white in Fairfield (sw adams). Closing in on 1"

[paweather]

Light snow in Palmyra

[anotherman]

Nice light snow in Mount Joy.

[Cashtown_Coop]

Measured 1.1" at 1pm

53.1" for season

Cashtown PA

[canderson]

Snow's essentially all day here, nothing sticking to pavement thankfully.

[Santa Clause]

Flurries here now...I think our totals have probably been beaten by most of the MD/DC area now lol.

[MillvilleWx]

Most of the MD area is probably close to KIPT or has passed it by a few inches. Northern sections of MD around Westminster, Frederick, down to Clarksburg over to Baltimore and up to Parkton where Mapgirl is located are around 50-80". It truly has been a strange winter throughout the east. Due to the progressive nature of systems and the incessant PV located over the Great lakes and Hudson Bay, storm track has greatly benefited the Central Mid-Atlantic. Storms were forced to take a more southerly route around the periphery of the PV and were exiting off the coast of Va/NC and heading ENE/NE direction. You guys in true Central and North Central Pa have gotten a plethora of nickel and dime events along with a few more robust variety storms (2/13) in certain locales. I'm sure most of the area is around average for this time of year, but in terms of big snows, that area has basically received the finger from mother nature. The cold in the region was all too common this winter and that was probably the one big take away for all. For the Mid-Atlantic area east of I-81 and south of the turnpike, this winter was memorable for both snow and cold. It's a top 3 winter in my book overall for what I can remember.

[Cashtown_Coop]

as of 6pm:

 

1.3" of snow

 

0.15" liquid equiv.

 

season total 53.3"

 

Cashtown PA

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

1 inch exactly here. 29 degrees.

[MAG5035]

Most of the MD area is probably close to KIPT or has passed it by a few inches. Northern sections of MD around Westminster, Frederick, down to Clarksburg over to Baltimore and up to Parkton where Mapgirl is located are around 50-80". It truly has been a strange winter throughout the east. Due to the progressive nature of systems and the incessant PV located over the Great lakes and Hudson Bay, storm track has greatly benefited the Central Mid-Atlantic. Storms were forced to take a more southerly route around the periphery of the PV and were exiting off the coast of Va/NC and heading ENE/NE direction. You guys in true Central and North Central Pa have gotten a plethora of nickel and dime events along with a few more robust variety storms (2/13) in certain locales. I'm sure most of the area is around average for this time of year, but in terms of big snows, that area has basically received the finger from mother nature. The cold in the region was all too common this winter and that was probably the one big take away for all. For the Mid-Atlantic area east of I-81 and south of the turnpike, this winter was memorable for both snow and cold. It's a top 3 winter in my book overall for what I can remember.

 

I can't think of another winter (in my 28 years) that was as consistently cold as this one has been, but for me the "snow" option on my winter broke after February 18th. I haven't had a single measurable snow save for a couple T's since then. It really put a damper on what overall had been a very nice above average season (60" total here). But I'm ready to warm up behind this monster fish storm, which should easily exceed the strengths of the Perfect Storm and '93 Superstorm east of New England. 

[2001kx]

Everything starting to turn white...light snow.

[AlleghanyBlade]

I saw this and thought you guy's could use a laugh with this never ending cold.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=wkDvqQKGgDA

[CarlislePaWx]

I saw this and thought you guy's could use a laugh with this never ending cold.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=wkDvqQKGgDA

 

Absolutely hilarious!  LMAO.  Play it several times and you'll laugh harder each time.

 

Had 0.5" of snowfall on my board today (yesterday).  Didn't really accumulate on the grass except for north-facing shrubs/trees and perpetually shaded sidewalks.  Don't know what my snowfall total is for the season, but it's somewhere in the 40's.

 

Zak has nothing to complain about now since the last two events he has "cashed in" on while us up here have received practically nothing.  Last week when he got 4" in Greencastle I had zip here!  Reminiscent of 2009-2010 and those freakish gradients that were even more dramatic than this season's.

[PennMan]

I can't think of another winter (in my 28 years) that was as consistently cold as this one has been, but for me the "snow" option on my winter broke after February 18th. I haven't had a single measurable snow save for a couple T's since then. It really put a damper on what overall had been a very nice above average season (60" total here). But I'm ready to warm up behind this monster fish storm, which should easily exceed the strengths of the Perfect Storm and '93 Superstorm east of New England. 

Yeah things looked to be heading towards historic in mid-February, with 30" of snow in 15 days here, 16-22" snowpack, and promises of continued cold and snow. The cold panned out in a big way, but I've recorded 0.5" for March.  Has to be the coldest March in State College with less than 1" of snow in the records. Oh well...I'm not going to complain about nearly 60" for the season and I'm more than ready for warm spring weather.

 

Have a couple of tenths of fresh snow this morning...roads are kinda tricky with a layer of ice under the snow.

[mappy]

Most of the MD area is probably close to KIPT or has passed it by a few inches. Northern sections of MD around Westminster, Frederick, down to Clarksburg over to Baltimore and up to Parkton where Mapgirl is located are around 50-80". It truly has been a strange winter throughout the east. Due to the progressive nature of systems and the incessant PV located over the Great lakes and Hudson Bay, storm track has greatly benefited the Central Mid-Atlantic. Storms were forced to take a more southerly route around the periphery of the PV and were exiting off the coast of Va/NC and heading ENE/NE direction. You guys in true Central and North Central Pa have gotten a plethora of nickel and dime events along with a few more robust variety storms (2/13) in certain locales. I'm sure most of the area is around average for this time of year, but in terms of big snows, that area has basically received the finger from mother nature. The cold in the region was all too common this winter and that was probably the one big take away for all. For the Mid-Atlantic area east of I-81 and south of the turnpike, this winter was memorable for both snow and cold. It's a top 3 winter in my book overall for what I can remember.

 

Areas near Westminster are close to 80", the Clarksburg area just went over 60" yesterday, I went over 70" last night

[Itstrainingtime]

.3" this morning leaves me at 61.7" for the season.

[canderson]

Up to 43" for the year.

[Santa Clause]

44 imby

[sauss06]

What little fell this am certainly created havoc on the roads. I guess people forgot how to drive in 2 weeks..Back when we were hitting zero or single digits, i adjusted and 25 and 30 felt warm. After Saturday, this morings cold bitched slapped when i opened the door to let the dogs out.

The cold has hung on to long now, its time for someone to break its fingers so it lets go

[Itstrainingtime]

What little fell this am certainly created havoc on the roads. I guess people forgot how to drive in 2 weeks..Back when we were hitting zero or single digits, i adjusted and 25 and 30 felt warm. After Saturday, this morings cold bitched slapped when i opened the door to let the dogs out.

The cold has hung on to long now, its time for someone to break its fingers so it lets go

I agree. When I walked out this morning and the snow was blowing sideways, I muttered "enough already."

Now it looks like we get rain for the weekend? Maybe some snow up north?

[djr5001]

may be off topic for our region... but those obs in eastern Mass. are something you just have to be quite impressed with as a weather enthusiast...

 

a cold core system near hurricane strength... gusts over 70 mph on shore in northwest quadrant with the center of the system well out to sea... some buoy data has gusts over 100mph and sustained over 70mph!!

[Superstorm]

may be off topic for our region... but those obs in eastern Mass. are something you just have to be quite impressed with as a weather enthusiast...

a cold core system near hurricane strength... gusts over 70 mph on shore in northwest quadrant with the center of the system well out to sea... some buoy data has gusts over 100mph and sustained over 70mph!!

Great storm. If only it phased further south and west. Still waiting for the storm that beats the Superstorm.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[skiier04]

GGEM today showed a huge snowstorm for next weekend (day 10), maybe the Jamie storm will just be delayed until April?  It seems to have the seasonal trends right with the 24"+ Jackpot right along the M/D line haha.  GFS shows a big storm around day 9 but its a cutter.

 

This really wouldn't surprise me this winter  Wonder how many years UNV has got more snow in April than March?

 

Not sure this map even deserves a single grain of salt but thats a hell of a lot of April snow!

 

 

[MAG5035]

GGEM today showed a huge snowstorm for next weekend (day 10), maybe the Jamie storm will just be delayed until April?  It seems to have the seasonal trends right with the 24"+ Jackpot right along the M/D line haha.  GFS shows a big storm around day 9 but its a cutter.

 

This really wouldn't surprise me this winter  Wonder how many years UNV has got more snow in April than March?

 

Not sure this map even deserves a single grain of salt but thats a hell of a lot of April snow!

 

 

 

 

Looks reasonable, it'll probably be a DC storm by the time we're in the short range lol. Things certainly look perilous at best as we get into the first week of April in terms of any type of extended warm weather..though we will sneak a few warmish days late this week. Teleconnection forecasts seem to want a more "traditional" -NAO/+PNA look to things as well as solid support for the MJO to traverse from phase 1-3.. and here's what those phases look like this time of the year.

 

 

While things going forward will naturally be warmer than they have been, which is a given with the time of the year, it still looks chilly and unsettled overall.. and the chance could be there for some kind of sneaky interior PA snow event if things line up right. The 12z GFS today actually achieved this as early as the end of this coming weekend.. though the CMC and Euro are warmer with that particular system.  Speaking of Jamie, where has he been?

[heavy_wx]

Looks reasonable, it'll probably be a DC storm by the time we're in the short range lol. Things certainly look perilous at best as we get into the first week of April in terms of any type of extended warm weather..though we will sneak a few warmish days late this week. Teleconnection forecasts seem to want a more "traditional" -NAO/+PNA look to things as well as solid support for the MJO to traverse from phase 1-3.. and here's what those phases look like this time of the year.

 

While things going forward will naturally be warmer than they have been, which is a given with the time of the year, it still looks chilly and unsettled overall.. and the chance could be there for some kind of sneaky interior PA snow event if things line up right. The 12z GFS today actually achieved this as early as the end of this coming weekend.. though the CMC and Euro are warmer with that particular system.  Speaking of Jamie, where has he been?

 

I agree that there doesn't look like any sustained pattern of warmth. However, nothing really looks that much below normal over a sustained period either, at least from Friday onward. On the 12z Euro ensemble mean, the omega ridge extending from the UK to Greenland decreases amplitude and negative height anomalies return by days 7-8. The PV will finally retreat back towards the north pole at that time as well, with the -EPO weakening and turning positive.

 

This past winter, the EPO appears to have been more correlated to our temperature anomalies in the east. Case in point, the AO and NAO have been positive for most of March while the PNA has been near neutral. The -EPO has been quite persistent for most of the month as have the negative temperature anomalies. This may be due to the spatial pattern of the EPO domain which has positive anomalies in eastern Canada. When the PV and its associated negative height anomalies were located over this region, they projected negatively onto the EPO loading pattern. You could also say that the ridging over Alaska allowed a direct source of cold air to enter the CONUS (or helped strengthen the PV-embedded trough downstream), which also projects negatively onto the EPO EOF.

 

We'll see what the MJO does but right now the signal looks fairly weak with only some slight negative OLR and 200 hPa VP anomalies in the northern Indian Ocean. Also, I wouldn't put too much stock in the extratropical response to the MJO based on those composites; the significance level is fairly high (higher probability of the temperature anomaly sign being opposite the observed sign).