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Central PA & Fringes - Autumn dawns


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Now here is some interesting reading for all those snow lovers out there. Only potential of course but hey why not. So many questions and details to work out but certainly something to watch unfold.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014 VALID 12Z MON MAR 24 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 28 2014 ...NOR'EASTER BOMB INDICATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH THE REESTABLISHMENT OF CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BAROCLINICITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE. THE LATE-MARCH SUN CONTINUES TO WARM AREAS SOUTH OF THE POLAR FRONT, WITH THE INFUSION OF NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS THERMAL CONTRAST IS, OF COURSE, PART AND PARCEL OF THE JET STREAM, WHICH IN TURN PROVIDES THE BACKGROUND ENERGY FOR THE PERTURBATIONS WENDING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERN RECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH--THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH'S NATURAL BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY. ONCE SUCH PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AS IT LIFTS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BOMB OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE JET STRENGTHENS VIA AN INJECTION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE MIDWEST. MANY MODELS--INCLUDING THE 00Z/21 GFS--DEEPEN THE OCEAN STORM BELOW 970MB NEAR THE ATLANTIC BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THIS PARTICULAR SET OF MANUAL PROGS, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN FOR A BEARING, SINCE NOT ALL THE GUIDANCE WAS YET ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE PARTICULARS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ECENS MEAN HAS SHOWN HIGH SKILL AT THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH SURFACE PRESSURES, AND SEEMS TO OFTEN ARRIVE AT A STABLE SOLUTION A DAY OR SO SOONER THAN MUCH OF THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE EAST-COAST CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LATE-SEASON HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER A WIDE SWATH OF REAL ESTATE FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND; THAT IS A GENERALITY AT THIS POINT. MUCH REMAINS IN TERMS OF REFINING THE FORECAST STATE BY STATE. ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACT FACTOR WILL BE THE POWERFUL WINDS GENERATED BY THIS SPRAWLING, INTENSE CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS, BEACH BATTERY, COASTAL FLOODING, AND SO FORTH. AGAIN, AT THIS POINT, SUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS ARE SIMPLY ATTENDANT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUCH A STORM. THE WEST WILL BE A TALE OF TWO REGIONS, WITH THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUING A HIGH-N-DRY STREAK, AND THE NORTHWEST BACK IN THE THICK OF ONSHORE FLOW. UNTIL THE OVERALL PATTERN RELAXES OR RESHUFFLES, WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET IN THE WEST. CISCO

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Lebanon County Zone Forecast

State College, PA

NWS Weather Forecast Office

  • Tonight Mostly clear this evening...then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Southwest winds around 5 mph with gusts up to 95 mph... Becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

 

 

 

:poster_oops::o:)

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Sharp Cutoff of Doom Warning is now in effect for all areas N of 80/W of 81.

 

I'll bet this edges NW enough in the end just to spite the winter holdouts in the subforum. It's liable to be a bomb too. Central PA might not be completely missed though, model guidance has generally been supportive of some patchy snow developing statewide as the very strong shortwave comes through and the trough goes negative tilt on its way to completely bombing out well east. There'd have to be quite a significant shift west in things for us to get involved much more than that. 

 

Still looks pretty good for busting out into more of a spring pattern once we get through this mostly cold week we have upcoming. 

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Man, deathly quiet in here. Was up in Syracuse all weekend for a funeral. Started snowing there last night around 9pm and we had maybe an inch in the morning. Most of the drive home until we hit the PA border we kept hitting some pretty nice bands. So weird to drive through. White out for a mile or two and then not a spec on the ground

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Head coach insists we practice outside tonight. I told him he was nuts.

Yeah, he is. The season is just beginning, to soon for injuries. Not to mention the fact the temps aren't real good for the bats. I always found practice to be non productive when the players are to worried about freezing then the drills you're working on.

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