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Central PA & Fringes - Autumn dawns


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Everett, PA has a tornado report from 7:06pm (Source:  NWS Chat)

 

That cell has definitely maintained itself quite well as it has traversed most of Bedford County. The rotation signature on velocity hasn't really been showing up strongly since it was more in the southern end of the county but the reports on the ground appear to be suggesting otherwise. This cell has also had a nice hail signature to it too. Couple captures when it was over Everett.

 

post-1507-0-13966700-1402528777_thumb.pn

 

Same image with CC

post-1507-0-43990100-1402528888_thumb.pn

 

Otherwise, attention starting to shift to the significant line in western PA and developing activity in the south. Mesoanalysis indicates a region of elevated EHI values in the west central part of the state with 0-1km values of 1-2.

 

post-1507-0-15371200-1402529113_thumb.gi

 

Would watch for potential rotation in any other activity that pops up in that particular region ahead of the line and potentially with the line as things progress toward the central part of the state. The line itself means business, brand new warnings from PIT for Indiana, Homer City, etc are of the 70mph wind variety 

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Mag, how's that line of storms out your way?

 

The worst of the line appears to be taking aim at Clearfield County to the NW instead of my county (Blair). However we are experiencing some torrential rainfall from some of the other storms that have developed. 

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The worst of the line appears to be taking aim at Clearfield County to the NW instead of my county (Blair). However we are experiencing some torrential rainfall from some of the other storms that have developed.

Seems like the Harrisburg area is in for a rainy night with some thunder. Lots of rain to the south moving up.

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Two Flash Flood Warnings issues by CTP.  Anybody experiencing flooding?

 

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1218 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
  SOUTHWESTERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
  EAST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
 
* UNTIL 315 PM EDT
    
* AT 1214 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF HEAVY 
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING IS 
  AFFECTING THE REGION FROM NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTY UP TO THE AREA IN 
  AND AROUND HARRISBURG. AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY 
  FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  HARRISBURG...LOWER ALLEN...PROGRESS...MECHANICSBURG...MIDDLETOWN...
  CAMP HILL...NEW CUMBERLAND...ENOLA...STEELTON...LEMOYNE...
  LAWNTON...VALLEY GREEN...BOILING SPRINGS...WORMLEYSBURG...
  BRESSLER-ENHAUT-OBERLIN...PENBROOK...LAKE MEADE...DILLSBURG...
  MARYSVILLE AND HIGHSPIRE.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.
 

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1252 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
 
* UNTIL 345 PM EDT
    
* AT 1250 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF HEAVY 
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING IS 
  AFFECTING THE REGION FROM EASTERN LEBANON COUNTY DOWN INTO 
  NORTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY. AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS  
  ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  LANCASTER...LEBANON...EPHRATA...ELIZABETHTOWN...LITITZ...MOUNT
  JOY...MANHEIM...ANNVILLE...EAST PETERSBURG...CORNWALL...AKRON...
  MYERSTOWN...SALUNGA-LANDISVILLE...DENVER...ROTHSVILLE...PLEASANT
  HILL...SAND HILL...NEWMANSTOWN...LEBANON SOUTH AND CLEONA.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.
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The GFS is showing some pretty high mixed-layer CAPE values for Wednesday afternoon-evening in central PA. It also some marginal deep-layer of around 35 kts, resulting from being on the northern edge of the 500 mb ridge. This suggests we could have some kind of mcs with a fairly widespread damaging wind threat.

 

CAPECINMLgfs212F66.png

 

The Euro has a similar idea as well with PA in the axis of high instability and enhanced 500 mb winds.

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Pretty nice sounding for UNV on the 12z GFS, especially with regards to the thermodynamics. There's a remnant EML between about 700 and 550 mb which helps increase CAPE above 2500 J/kg. This feature also may cap the environment until late afternoon, allowing for greater instability when storms initiate later.

 

The slight clockwise curvature to the hodograph between 0 and 3 km and 40 kt 0-6 km shear suggests the possibility of some supercells. Even so, there still isn't too much environmental helicity and any discrete activity will likely need to form prior to the development of an MCS.

 

post-869-0-74763300-1402939198_thumb.png

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Looks like some semi-discrete storms have fired along the surface trough from northern Indiana to CNY. The mesoscale models are suggesting that those cells will eventually merge into a linear feature and progress southeastward roughly parallel to the 0-6 km shear vectors. Speaking of which, the greatest deep layer shear is closer to the 500 mb shortwave in southern Ontario and upstate NY. By the time the MCS reaches central PA it will have less instability to work with as well as weaker shear, though the 0-1 km shear is still fairly high with a significant component parallel to the storm motion.

 

The relatively fast, anticyclonic mid-level flow has been bringing warmer temperatures into central PA and looks to bring the remnant EML depicted by yesterday's 12z GFS in a bit earlier. As a result, there will likely be less instability vs. that which had been forecast by the 12z GFS. There should still be some chance of severe with the axis of instability generally near the mid-section of PA. The exact placement of this boundary will depend somewhat on the development of tonight's convection and subsequent outflow boundaries. There should be more multi-cell clusters and maybe some linear segments based on the unidirectional 0-6 shear around 35 kts with lower values farther south into PA.

 

Warmest day of the year so far with 87F here as the high.

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Seeing frequent lightning flashes in the sky to the west. Actually some decent velocities with that line; there's even a small area of 70+ mph inbound just west of Clearfield.

 

Impressive indeed, that bow segment means business. Looks like that portion is gonna pass me by just to the north..gonna be close though.

 

post-1507-0-57280600-1403064175_thumb.pn

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