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Central PA & Fringes - Autumn dawns


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Hard to believe we're still getting misses to the south in mid-late march... it's definitely a bit frustrating.  Despite above average snowfall and the best season total in several years it still feels like a winter of missed opportunity.  These cool temps and gusty winds are brutal... looks like several weeks to go before any sort of warm up with no real storm threats on the horizon :(

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53 in Altoona too...beautiful sunny sky...winds have died down....wicked gusts here this morning.  Whats the story for tomorrow with the snow????

 

Barring any kind of major last minute shift back in our direction can't rule out maybe sneaking in a brief period of light snow tomorrow night in the Altoona area and a coating if we're lucky. Otherwise models are generally in agreement with keeping any notable accumulation south of the turnpike and probably mainly south of the PA border. Mid Atlantic gang swipes another one.

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This is a really random question, but it's bugging the heck outta me because I want to remember the date. Does anyone remember, specifically people who have lived in York county/LSV for a long time now, that massive wind storm that took place sometime in the early 2000s? Maybe like 2003 or 2004? If I remember correctly, it happened on a Sunday evening in late May or early June. I just can't remember the year for the life of me.

I just remember, the wind was really bad...like the worst I've experienced here in York before. Tons of trees, power lines, roofs blown over...you name it!

Any help would be greatly appreciated lol. Thanks guys...

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Hard to believe we're still getting misses to the south in mid-late march... it's definitely a bit frustrating.  Despite above average snowfall and the best season total in several years it still feels like a winter of missed opportunity.  These cool temps and gusty winds are brutal... looks like several weeks to go before any sort of warm up with no real storm threats on the horizon :(

You are absolutely right.  It is frustrating.  Its either to our north to our south.  We seem to be sandwiched in the middle of missing out on most of these nice storms all winter.  Yeah we got some decent snows but no blockbusters.  We'll probably get a monster storm on March 31...opening day for MLB and the opener at PNC.  

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SREF plumes are bullish this morning in the southern tier. 4-5" means for places like AOO and Harrisburg with a pretty heavy distribution of members above that mean. They're assuming generally above 10:1 though.. which may not be a stretch, but snow may initially fall for awhile and not accumulate too fast.  Either way, there's still a mean of a few tenths of liquid equiv in these places..with more in the stations closer to the PA/MD border. Still that very tight northern cutoff of course, with the mean at State College (PSB) being around an inch. Probably a bit overzealous on the amounts, but the southern-most tier of counties might sneak a half decent event (2-3 inch type deal). GFS has been consistently getting some precip into the southern tier and last nights Euro and this mornings NAM has some light stuff back into the southern tier. Will have to see how things evolve this afternoon as we get into HRRR/RAP time. 

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It looks really chilly in the long range unfortunately to me it also looks like more of the same. Storms cut to our west then we get cold and dry for a week. The southern stream just doesn't want to phase in this pattern so when it's cold systems stay south of us. I am not buying any if the long range storms that require phasing.

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Had 2 inches last time, think we might pull off 3 down here this time.  Hope it is the last of it! Been a very snowy season here and I am in Spring mode! Unless some sort of once in a century or so anomalous late season HECS pops up my interest in snow this late in the game is zero :gun_bandana:

I didn't think you accepted any storms under a foot. :-)

Keep them storms south. Ready for spring.

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It looks really chilly in the long range unfortunately to me it also looks like more of the same. Storms cut to our west then we get cold and dry for a week. The southern stream just doesn't want to phase in this pattern so when it's cold systems stay south of us. I am not buying any if the long range storms that require phasing.

No signs of spring at all in the long range???

Im so ready!!! :sun:

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No signs of spring at all in the long range???

Im so ready!!! :sun:

me too ready to hike, gold, tennis ext but no march 23-30 looks pretty cold. I would rather nice and warm but if its going to be cold either way I'd like it to at least snow unfortunately I expect a repeat of cutters followed by cold and storms staying weak and south. Rinse and repeat.
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me too ready to hike, gold, tennis ext but no march 23-30 looks pretty cold. I would rather nice and warm but if its going to be cold either way I'd like it to at least snow unfortunately I expect a repeat of cutters followed by cold and storms staying weak and south. Rinse and repeat.

Looks like my birthday's going to be miserable weather-wise. :(

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You think that's bad? Try being on the wrong side of the 2/5-6/10 storm. :axe:

 

Yea i'd be mad for a long time if i missed that one in the fashion you had to up in the Scranton area. This current storm doesn't appear to be too much of a slouch judging by the obs thread down south. They lucked out with good rates to get accums going quickly and this event happening almost exclusively at night. I did a bit of a double take when I saw WPC snow probs earlier today but their bullishness ended up being the way to go.

 

Pretty much how I look at it is if it's going to continue to be chilly and unsettled in March it might as well snow and pad the stats. Was hopin for a great late ski/snowboard season like last year. It still doesn't look particularly great at all through the end of the month for any extended warm weather. Some MJO forecasts have been suggestive of a possible tour through 1,2, and 3 (aka the 3 coldest phases this time of the year) the next 10-14 days or so. 

 

BTW the Euro control had the ultimate lol-worthy storm around 228-246 at 12z today. A storm starting around 980 moving off of Hatteras to somewhere in the mid 940s (940s!!) on the SNE coast. The catch? It was mainly a NYC-BOS type deal, lol. 

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