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April 2014 obs and discussion


Ian

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...Coastal Flood Watch in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a coastal Flood Watch...which is in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

* Tidal anomaly...around 2 feet above normal.

* Timing...late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

* Expected impacts...potential for moderate tidal flooding near times of high tide.

Here are the times of the high tides overnight Tuesday and Wednesday morning for a few locations from north to south along the Chesapeake Bay... Havre degrace...11:15 am Wednesday... Bowley Bar...9:25 am Wednesday... Fort McHenry Baltimore...8:10 am Wednesday... Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy...6:51 am Wednesday... Chesapeake Beach...5:23 am Wednesday... Solomons Island...3:40 am Wednesday... Point lookout...2:42 am Wednesday...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for tidal flooding are expected to develop. Residents along tidal areas should be alert for later statements or warnings...and take action to protect property.

 

 

 

 

152 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2014

...Flash Flood Watch in effect from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland...the District of Columbia and Virginia...including the following areas...in Maryland...Anne Arundel...Calvert...Carroll...Charles... Harford...Howard...Montgomery...Baltimore...Prince Georges... and St. Marys. In Virginia...Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria...Fairfax...King George...Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park...southern Fauquier... Spotsylvania and Stafford...and the District of Columbia.

* From Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night

* rain will continue through Wednesday night...with the heaviest rain expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Storm total rainfall amounts will average between 3 and 5 inches with locally higher amounts likely.

* Heavy amounts of rain in short periods of time may cause flash flooding of creeks...streams and urban areas.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that there is the potential for flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. Rapidly moving water is powerful and can be a threat to vehicles as well as people and property.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should warnings be issued. A warning would mean that we have moved from the possibility of flooding to a flooding situation in a specific area.

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DCZ001-MDZ005>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-502-290200-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0001.140430T0200Z-140501T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-
CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-
FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...
ST MARYS CITY...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG
152 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA AND VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
MARYLAND...ANNE ARUNDEL...CALVERT...CARROLL...CHARLES...
HARFORD...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES...
AND ST. MARYS. IN VIRGINIA...ARLINGTON/FALLS
CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...FAIRFAX...KING GEORGE...PRINCE
WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...SOUTHERN FAUQUIER...
SPOTSYLVANIA AND STAFFORD...AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA.

* FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.

* HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME MAY CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAPIDLY
MOVING WATER IS POWERFUL AND CAN BE A THREAT TO VEHICLES AS WELL
AS PEOPLE AND PROPERTY.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. A WARNING WOULD MEAN THAT WE HAVE
MOVED FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING TO A FLOODING SITUATION IN
A SPECIFIC AREA.

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My experience here is that they almost always underestimate that.

If this were a month from now, it would be a slam dunk flash flood event for someone along the east slopes.  Not sure about late April though I think a watch is OK as someone near the warm front could easily have training of cells.  The models do often underplay upslope especially the smaller scale maxima. 

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Contrary to what I've read, we really don't need this big dump of rain, nor has it been dry lately.

Been pretty dry here since the first of the year. I will happily take the 3-5" this week.

Flood watches already up for the Opequon basin for flood stage on Thursday morning.

Currently socked in, light rain, and 53 degrees.

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