AvantHiatus Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 12z GFS is about 3.5" for DC, slightly less east, more north/west. Map containing all of Mid Atlantic/Northeast coming soon Also a couple warm days in there, before the front moves thru. Lower to mid 70's, upper 60's for the coast. Dew points look pretty high, which has been rare this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 26, 2014 Author Share Posted April 26, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0408 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...ERN WV PANHANDLE...MD...DE...DC...SERN PA...SRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 262021Z - 262200Z CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...DIURNAL HEATING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WHILE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY INTENSE...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 50-60 KTS OF FLOW AT 3 KM WILL FAVOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CORES. WHILE ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE...THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW FOR WATCH ISSUANCE. THE WIND THREAT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COMMENCES. ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2014 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 37857572 38067750 38247870 38627902 39317896 40027837 40497716 40787509 40607417 40217403 39667419 39037475 38587503 37857572 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 I can't believe it would rain to end such a great day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Rain? Sunny here with some major winds. Not good timing for trying to install a new deck canopy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 26, 2014 Author Share Posted April 26, 2014 Stuff popping up south of the city. Can see the bubblies. Everything else looks like it's getting sheared to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 feels like my house is goinna blow over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Nice gusts with the showers moving through . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 5" of rain on the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 0z Euro advertising 4.5"+ for all of NoVA east of the Blue Ridge with the 6.5" jackpot in Madison County. 0z GGEM is quite different with a 5" bullseye in northern MD and 1.6-2" in NoVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Seems odd to see potential for so much liquid in a few days at this time of year. I'd expect that more in late summer and into fall with tropical remnants than in late April, early May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 I could go for some flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 I would like some storms please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Absolutely beautiful day out! Spent the morning at a horse show in Berryville, VA then came home and the girls have not been back in the house since. Currently 68 out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 GFS has been preety consistent with showing heavy rainfall, it has shown 3+ inches for at least one location in Maryland since the 4/25 6z run. I think the latest 18z run is more realistic overall, it lost the 6 inches it was showing for Northern MD/Southern PA, and also expanded the 3 inch plus zone. Oh and WPC says get your arks out. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif EDIT: Do you think we need Flood Watches? Since it looks like Wednesday could bring heavy rain in a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Absolutely beautiful day out! Spent the morning at a horse show in Berryville, VA then came home and the girls have not been back in the house since. Currently 68 out. Allows you to get some things done around the house, I'm sure. Beautiful day indeed! I spent all afternoon planting annuals, a lilac bush, and a rhododendron bush in the front. Thank God for beer and iTunes Radio Top 50 Country to enjoy while gardening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 GFS has been preety consistent with showing heavy rainfall, it has shown 3+ inches for at least one location in Maryland since the 4/25 6z run. I think the latest 18z run is more realistic overall, it lost the 6 inches it was showing for Northern MD/Southern PA, and also expanded the 3 inch plus zone. Oh and WPC says get your arks out. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif EDIT: Do you think we need Flood Watches? Since it looks like Wednesday could bring heavy rain in a short period of time. No. The rain is spread out over a long period of time, it has been dry recently and vegetation is leafing out which means the rainfall can get soaked up quicker. If we go back to the 6"+ regime, then possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 GFS has been preety consistent with showing heavy rainfall, it has shown 3+ inches for at least one location in Maryland since the 4/25 6z run. I think the latest 18z run is more realistic overall, it lost the 6 inches it was showing for Northern MD/Southern PA, and also expanded the 3 inch plus zone. Oh and WPC says get your arks out. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif EDIT: Do you think we need Flood Watches? Since it looks like Wednesday could bring heavy rain in a short period of time. GEFS actually increased from 12z. OP is the driest. All the other members show 4"+, two show 8"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 No. The rain is spread out over a long period of time, it has been dry recently and vegetation is leafing out which means the rainfall can get soaked up quicker. If we go back to the 6"+ regime, then possibly. Agree that flooding isn't that big of a concern here, but it hasn't been that dry recently. I have over 6" in the last 30 days, and from digging in the yard the soil is wet down to at least a foot. If we saturate the top level on mon night/tuesday and then go big on Wednesday there could be some problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Also with the east / southeast fetch off the Atlantic perpendicular to the eastern facing apps I would think areas along and just east of I81 would be the prime areas with this added enhancement. Models sometimes underestimate this I've seen . My experience here is that they almost always underestimate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Wettest NAM run so far, now in the GFS's 3"+ ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Contrary to what I've read, we really don't need this big dump of rain, nor has it been dry lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I see State College issued a Flood Watch for some of their zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Contrary to what I've read, we really don't need this big dump of rain, nor has it been dry lately. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Prior to last week, BWI had a 6 day stretch of dry weather that came on the heels of a 2.42" rain event on the 15th. And we got nearly another inch last week....more in spots. 3-5" is too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 GFS is 3-4". The 3" area is huge, giving more confidence to the big rain forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 LWX contemplating Flood Watch issuance per late morning AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 It appears you might be wrong......again. No. The rain is spread out over a long period of time, it has been dry recently and vegetation is leafing out which means the rainfall can get soaked up quicker. If we go back to the 6"+ regime, then possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I think we're right on the edge here in terms of surface flooding. Obviously the area's that get train'd over will have issues with small creeks and streams. Overall though, a widespread surface waterway flooding event is not likely. That doesn't mean however that people's basements won't get flooded, some most very likely will. So if your one of those houses that gets water in their basement or sump pumps run when it rains hard; Make sure to get those drains cleared out and test your pump after a looong winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 ICYMI, my forecast FLASH FLOOD WATCHES NOW OUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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