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April 2014 obs and discussion


Ian

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GFS guidance is bullish on wind around 8pm. Two hours of TS sustained winds? Seems higher than everything else. 

 

attachicon.gifUntitled-2.jpg

 

In my experience doing WxChallenge, LAMP typically overdoes sustained, though the gusts can be quite accurate. Also, it works better in open terrain. (Ie. Great plain states, not so much urban areas).

 

Edit: LAMP for IAD and BWI seem more logical with sustained in the low 20's and gust around 30.

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In my experience doing WxChallenge, LAMP typically overdoes sustained, though the gusts can be quite accurate. Also, it works better in open terrain. (Ie. Great plain states, not so much urban areas).

GFS MAV has 32kts sustained at 0z too. NAM is a good bit lower tho. Looking back, GFS has 30kts+ at 0z every run the last 4.. as high as 36kt. 

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That is strange. The deterministic run has winds sustained in the upper teens. 925mb winds only in the 40s, which means that there isn't a lot of room to transfer down.

It is odd too because the other local stations only peak in the low or mid 20kts range, on MAV only around 20kts. ADW is somewhat close getting past 30. 

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Another questionable aspect of the LAMP guidance is that it is not capturing the temperature drop associated with the front.   It has DCA at 50 at 23z.    I suspect that LWX's forecasts are tied at least partially into the LAMP output (or maybe MOS), but this just won't capture sharp fronts.    Their zone forecast for Baltimore mentions falling into the mid 50's late this afternoon, and they have Frederick falling to near 50.     Both are already colder at 3PM.

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Few flakes mixed in the rain here, down to 39.4 degrees after being 59 at 7 am.

Now a 80-20 split of 'pingers' and rain with an occasional snowflake here, temp down to 38.2 degrees. Pouring snow on western side of county near WV line (can be seen on camera 1 on I-64 ), just another April 15th.

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44 and 1.00" IMBY. Youngest daughter who went to school in a skirt was in for a shock when I just picked her up.

That was kind of silly to let her go off in a skirt knowing it would be in the 40s when school let out

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