jaxjagman Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Euro 12z sped up the system on todays run towards the end of the work week.It's showing some cape of 1.5k+ in the western Valley,showalter -4 Thursday.Some wet bulbs of 10-11k ft,still looks capped.Lots of energy floating around south of the valley looking at the 500 mb.It still has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 30, 2014 Author Share Posted March 30, 2014 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014 VALID 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... DAY 4-5/ MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING TOWARD A SLOWER...MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION REGARDING THE UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AREA BY THURSDAY /DAY 5/ WITH ECMWF ALSO TRENDING SLOWER...BUT STILL REMAINS THE FASTER MODEL. PRECEDING THIS FEATURE...RICHER GULF MOISTURE /LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR UNDERNEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY /DAY 4/. IT STILL APPEARS A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE DAY 4 OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND NEAR THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION OVER NWRN OK/SWRN KS. HOWEVER...CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE DRYLINE AS WELL AS FARTHER EAST IN WARM SECTOR. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TO PLACE A 30% OR GREATER SEVERE AREA REMAINS LOW FOR DAY 4...BUT A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT DAY 3 UPDATE. GIVEN MODEL TRENDS...IT NOW APPEARS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MIGHT DEVELOP FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION THURSDAY /DAY 5/ AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ENEWD RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MERGER OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS WELL AS FARTHER EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAY 6/ SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AS WELL AS A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES BY FRIDAY /DAY 6/. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...A PORTION OF THIS REGION MAY BE INCLUDED IN A CATEGORICAL RISK IN THE NEXT UPDATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Looks like the potential is there for a rather cold month. NAO, PNA, and AO are about to flip to prime winter conditions. What does that mean here? Cold, rain, mountain snow...generally some miserable days IMO. Would guess the last hard freeze will be late. Stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Now the question...Can the rest of April erase the temp anomalies from the first four days? The 18z GFS shows a trough of some sort for the next 2 1/2 weeks. Shouldn't be entirely miserable as stated above, but it won't feel like summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 Looks like a another shot of a wide spread severe system sometimes around the next weekend time frame,both the Euro and GFS are hinting at this.To early to get in any specifics this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 6, 2014 Share Posted April 6, 2014 Euro weeklies Thursday evening hinted at an active final third of April. I was encouraged for a couple days. Unfortunately weekend ensemble runs revert back to the ridge west trough east train wreck. Best we could do is more Gulf Coastal front junk. Tough to get action up into the Mid South and the Plains can just about forget it. Hope the weekend NWP is wrong. MJO confusion seems to be driving model forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Tomorrow East Tn has a shot at seeing snow fly! This would make measurable snow in every month since October(or at least falling from the sky). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 The blistering freeze is not well timed. My apple trees just went into full bloom seemingly over night Sunday. Temps are supposed to be in the low to mid 20s here Wednesday morning. Looking like a fruitless year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 It feels like this rain could flip to snow any second now. Very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Just quit snowing here. Was coming down pretty good for a little while. Had a little dusting on the roof at one point. Temp down to 34.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Monteagle might end as snow per correlation coefficient CC on dual pole radar. Chatty will probably stay too warm. Shocking right? Meanwhile northeast Tenn (TRI) stands a good chance of ending as snow. Per CC the back end of that precip crossing the Upper Plateau is consistently staying snow. This should be it. 6-15 day pattern shows no strong cold fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 John looks like your close to changing over. Seeing anything yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 I have sleet falling right now. Pretty awesome for mid April. I'm specifically in Soddy Daisy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Finished up with a sleet/graupel mix in Cleveland. Can we actually have spring now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Sleet/Snow now mixing in with the rain. Temp 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Have had big, sloppy wet flakes here in Morristown for about the last hour now. Right now it's just about 100% snow actually and it's really been coming down hard!! It's very strange with the trees blooming an the green grass. It's pretty but it looks like things are not happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 All snow here big flakes as well. Unbelievable!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Snowed most of the morning up until around 45 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Snow is on the ground around 2500 feet. I'll try to get out and get pictures unless it melts before I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Elevation really helps especially this time of year! Around the house not a flake was sticking but at the golf course at about 500-750 feet higher it is beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Tough to beat mid April snow. I've saw it a bit later than this, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Still getting snow showers moving through occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Snowed in Kingsport for 3-4 hours. Seven straight months of snow. Incredible streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 18, 2014 Author Share Posted April 18, 2014 Maybe a shot at some severe weather towards the end of next weekend, if the Euro is right..K INDEX 38..MUCAPE 1620..LI -6..dp 66,for Nashville..700-500mb lapse rates 7-8 for all the Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 21, 2014 Author Share Posted April 21, 2014 Euro 0z is looking impressive,12z the 28TH,Nashville already has dp's at 65..LI -5..KI 38..MUCAPE 984,could be a long day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Instability parameters aren't the only ones involved in a severe setup, with the 00z Euro solution, there is a lot more making that a potent solution than just instability. For example, the trough has a broad base allowing forcing to overspread the warm sector well ahead of any boundary and allowing discrete convection to develop. In addition, the position of the surface low would be pretty favorable for a severe event in Dixie Alley and there are strong wind fields present through the column. Obviously it's a ways out and things will change, but this is a period to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 12Z Euro echos/strengthens the forecast above. Iff it is a perfect prog Monday will feature a Mid South Mauler severe wx set-up. Long way out and lots can go wrong, but confidence is good deep moisture will be in place. We have no just-in-time Plains moisture issue over in the South - it'll be juicy. Euro runs hint at new jet stream energy pushing out of TX/OK after the weekend Plains system ejects into the Upper Midwest. New surface low is shown developing in the Middle Mississippi Valley. If all the above comes together the Mid South faces all severe weather threats on Monday. It is Day 7 and it is just a forecast, but certainly interesting to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 That's some decent 850mb winds on the Euro 12z ,around 50-55kts,even more impressive down in La,E into Ms 60-70kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0351 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 VALID 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION.....SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THECENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE MSVALLEY AND MID SOUTH ON MONDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE... MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THEECMWF DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE 500MB EVOLUTION OFWRN U.S. TROUGH. CONCERNS REGARDING POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONGSWLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ABATED THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE DEEPENSLEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENTINTO WRN KS ON SUNDAY. INTENSE 500MB SPEED MAX APPROACHING 90KTSHOULD ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER THENEJECT INTO SWRN KS EARLY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT SFC LOW IS NOTEXPECTED TO ADVANCE APPRECIABLY EWD UNTIL LATER MONDAY AS SECONDARYMID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TX INTO THE LOWER OH RIVERVALLEY. MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINESATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. STRONGLYDIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE VIGOROUS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENTFROM PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO KS. VERY LARGE HAIL ANDTORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MIX SUNDAY ASLOWEST PRESSURES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRNKS. MODELS MIX DRYLINE EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK BY 18ZSUNDAY BUT THE DAY5 FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR DRYLINE NOT MIXINGACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAST AS MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT. AS ARESULT...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THEMOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR AND ANOTHER DIURNALLY-INITIATED ROUND OFPOTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE. LATER MONDAY IT APPEARS THE SFC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD ADVANCE INTOTHE MS VALLEY. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OFTHE FRONT FROM LA...NWD INTO MO AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS MIDDLETN. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WARM-SECTORCONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 04/23/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Looks like you guys might have a slight threat today for some severe weather, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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