weathafella Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Maybe reaches nino state but this is starting to have that 12/13 false look to it, easterlies ruling the roost I think we go full basin low end moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I think we go full basin low end moderate. And hopefully full nude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 000WTNT31 KNHC 031504TCPAT1BULLETINHURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTEDNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0120141100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED IN SUMMARY BLOCK TO 10 MPH...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...32.4N 78.5WABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINAABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...NONE.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER* PAMLICO SOUND* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDA HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITYA TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHTVIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDA HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDSOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFEAND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLEWITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THELEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELYREQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THEHURRICANE WATCH AREA.A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNINGAREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THEPROGRESS OF ARTHUR.INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLEINLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOURLOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The GFS still has this coming just west of the benchmark. Cape Cod should really monitor Arthur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yes, 12z GFS would raise some eyebrows for SE MA/Cape Cod area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Pot calling the kettle black Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yes, 12z GFS would raise some eyebrows for SE MA/Cape Cod area. based on that I would think sometime today or tonight a TS warning will be issued from Block Island to Portsmouth NH with potential Hurricane Watches if the models come even farther west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Gfs has definitely beaten out the euro on this storm with regards to consistency so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Almost as common as Brice Cotton scoring in double figures. Bryce** And not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Someone is going to get deluged tomorrow where that band sets up. You probably could easily double the GFS QPF in the meat of that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Gfs has definitely beaten out the euro on this storm with regards to consistency so far Once it figured out that there was a tropical storm sitting off the coast of Florida, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Gfs has definitely beaten out the euro on this storm with regards to consistency so far You serious? Euro had this 10 days out and never really lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Someone is going to get deluged tomorrow where that band sets up. You probably could easily double the GFS QPF in the meat of that band. Models will tend to underdo precip from TCs by a factor of 2 IIRC...I think the NAM was a factor of 1.75 and the GFS was higher than 2...I cannot remember where I read that study though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 You serious? Euro had this 10 days out and never really lost it. For New England, to clarify my own position. The GFS has been advertising a benchmark track since 6/30. Now, on 6/29, it didn't have the storm at all. The Euro had one really bad run on 7/1 12z where it reached DC latitude and basically went due east from there, but it has been slowly trending west for a few days. But the Euro was also showing the storm in some form as early as the 26th, maybe earlier. With the obvious disclaimer that this is in reference to the current model guidance, we don't know what the final track will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 You serious? Euro had this 10 days out and never really lost it. And they've also been way east all along while gfs, once they picked it up, has stayed west all along. Euro picked up the threat earlier, but gfs has been more accurate and it's not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Leaving for misquamicut in the morning hoping for a trend west but its late in the game now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Where will this band set up though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 **Whoops! And OK, slight exaggeration - he was a double-digits machine. Glad to hear the Spurs are giving him a shot. But seriously, though. A gust to 40 is not all that uncommon in a nor'easter. Bryce**And not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Leaving for misquamicut in the morning hoping for a trend west but its late in the game now I'm going to point Judith tomorrow afternoon.. Should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Sure looking good on Sat/radar right now. What's the new Euro have to say about track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The 18 early cycle tracks have a cluster near or just se ack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The 18 early cycle tracks have a cluster near or just se ack Wow, that's west. If it were to go over Nantucket I would think a tropical storm watch would go up east of the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wow, that's west. If it were to go over Nantucket I would think a tropical storm watch would go up east of the canal. Probably farther west than that like maybe Watch Hill, RI to Portsmouth, NH and maybe a Hurricane watch for Nantucket but things could change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The 18 early cycle tracks have a cluster near or just se ackwe've been getting small west nudges with each new cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I'm going to point Judith tomorrow afternoon.. Should be funI will be cruising the shore from Watch Hill to Narragansett starting around 5 looking for the best surf swells, should be building all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wow, that's west. If it were to go over Nantucket I would think a tropical storm watch would go up east of the canal. Yeah, several members now pass between Nantucket and Cape Cod with the 18z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Boarding up on Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 we've been getting small west nudges with each new cycle The trend is a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Watch how quick it is destroyed by cold water, best winds east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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