Tropical Disco 2014 SNE

[AvantHiatus]

Some of the early guidance came a tick NW again. It'll be interesting to see what the 00z stuff does. I kind of expected more of a NBD thing, but it could be rather interesting on the Cape and perhaps parts of SE MA.

If possible, can you post a semi decent model-plot? I know GFDL has been consistently east of the GFS. Perhaps this is why NHC is reluctant to shift west. What did the Euro Ensembles do?

[wxeyeNH]

Some of the early guidance came a tick NW again. It'll be interesting to see what the 00z stuff does. I kind of expected more of a NBD thing, but it could be rather interesting on the Cape and perhaps parts of SE MA.

I really expect it not to be a big deal with wind.  We have had Hurricane's like Bob move much closer and as long as you are on the west side the winds never are that strong.  The wild card is a predecessor rain event.  They can be sneaky and can cause huge amounts of rain. If there will be headlines after the storm that could be it.

[CoastalWx]

I really expect it not to be a big deal with wind.  We have had Hurricane's like Bob move much closer and as long as you are on the west side the winds never are that strong.  The wild card is a predecessor rain event.  They can be sneaky and can cause huge amounts of rain. If there will be headlines after the storm that could be it.

 

Well maybe this is JMHO, but a storm that can get 30-40kts and heavy rain is interesting to me anyways. It probably won't be a big deal for wind in most places...but ACK probably has the best chance of getting stronger winds.  For a place like BOS, this probably isn't much of anything except maybe some heavier rains if that convergence area (almost a semi coastl front) sets up there.

[CoastalWx]

If possible, can you post a semi decent model-plot? I know GFDL has been consistently east of the GFS. Perhaps this is why NHC is reluctant to shift west. What did the Euro Ensembles do?

 

The euro ensembles looked close to the BM...maybe a hair outside of it. 

 

There are a bunch of good sites. 

 

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2014/al012014/

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2014070218/

 

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/modelsOLD/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2014&storm=01&display=googlemap&latestrun=1

[IsentropicLift]

The 21z SREF came pretty far west. Nails the Cape.

[CoastalWx]

I still would take SREFs with a grain of salt with these things. 

[BrianLaverty]

If you said gusts to 40 in January we'd all yawn. 

 

I was in the gusts to 30 today striper fishing. Washing machine.

 

Where do you guys get gusts over 40 in January?

 

I always hear people say this, but here in Cumberland?  Very rare to get anything over 20 MPH.

[weathafella]

Where do you guys get gusts over 40 in January?

 

I always hear people say this, but here in Cumberland?  Very rare to get anything over 20 MPH.

Nor'easters frequently produce in an around boson not too far from the eastern coast. We sometimes go over 40 in southerly gusts ahead of cold fronts.

[CoastalWx]

Where do you guys get gusts over 40 in January?

 

I always hear people say this, but here in Cumberland?  Very rare to get anything over 20 MPH.

 

When do we not get gusts over 40? I disagree with your "barely over 20." You most certainly get gusts higher than that, even in CAA days.

[CoastalWx]

There should be a nice convergence band setting up from Arthur first probably in CT and central MA before moving east. Where that sets up for a time..could be a ton of rain. Best chance might be ORH-IJD on east I think. This is sort of separate from a PRE.

[ackwaves]

Noticing a sharp trough digging into the states west of the great lakes on WV loop. Any chance that starts to tug on Arthur and allows for a slightly more westward track?

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

[moneypitmike]

There should be a nice convergence band setting up from Arthur first probably in CT and central MA before moving east. Where that sets up for a time..could be a ton of rain. Best chance might be ORH-IJD on east I think. This is sort of separate from a PRE.

 

Any place west of there will need to take what we can get from yesterday/today for our fun.

[Damage In Tolland]

Noticing a sharp trough digging into the states west of the great lakes on WV loop. Any chance that starts to tug on Arthur and allows for a slightly more westward track?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

Hopefully a tug and pull right over the Cape. Tie it to your barge and tug it west

[Zeus]

Noticing a sharp trough digging into the states west of the great lakes on WV loop. Any chance that starts to tug on Arthur and allows for a slightly more westward track?

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

 

No.

[ineedsnow]

Wouldnt surprise me but not likely

Noticing a sharp trough digging into the states west of the great lakes on WV loop. Any chance that starts to tug on Arthur and allows for a slightly more westward track?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

[ackwaves]

Hopefully a tug and pull right over the Cape. Tie it to your barge and tug it west

I wouldn't mind that one bit.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I had been hoping Arthur would speed up, but it seems that would not be the case

I will be flipping doggy burgers while 13 relatives destroy my house

[Ginx snewx]

Hatteras will be rocking, great page by Newport Morehead

Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 78. East wind 30 to 35 mph increasing to 60 to 80 mph. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EM_Brief.php

[ROOSTA]

Arthur tracking NNE, wind field tightening, pressure dropping. This will be the closest New England comes to a tropical system this year.

[Ginx snewx]

SE_RTMA_2014070312Z.png

Arthur tracking NNE, wind field tightening, pressure dropping. This will be the closest New England comes to a tropical system this year.

pretty bold call in July. I was actually thinking the first storm of the year can be a precursor to the season trend.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

pretty bold call in July. I was actually thinking the first storm of the year can be a precursor to the season trend.

With the tropics looking so dreadful I was thinking if anything we may see more "home brew" style systems this year which could offer us better chances for an impact than the vast majority of CV storms would.

[ROOSTA]

A tropical system passing close to the BM. Granted its the first, thinking I have a greater chance of verifying than a direct hit or any other system coming closer. 

[ORH_wxman]

With the tropics looking so dreadful I was thinking if anything we may see more "home brew" style systems this year which could offer us better chances for an impact than the vast majority of CV storms would.

 

 

That was certainly the case in 1991 durng that developing Nino.

 

But for the most part, El Ninos have been a wasteland for tropical systems up here. The ENSO sweespot for SNE tropical cyclones seems to be weak La Nina or cold-neutral.

 

2011 (Irene), 1996 (Bertha, Eduard close miss), 1985 (Gloria), 1971 (Doria), 1960 (Donna), 1954 (Edna, Carol), 1944 (Great Atlantic Hurricane), and 1938 (Long Island Express) all fall within weak La Nina or cold-neutral developing ENSO.

 

Hurricane Bob was the only significant storm to occur during a full developing El Nino...but it was a homebrew storm, so that's probably how to get them this season.

[Wonkis]

Almost as common as Brice Cotton scoring in double figures. 

 

Where do you guys get gusts over 40 in January?

 

I always hear people say this, but here in Cumberland?  Very rare to get anything over 20 MPH.

[Ginx snewx]

That was certainly the case in 1991 durng that developing Nino.

 

But for the most part, El Ninos have been a wasteland for tropical systems up here. The ENSO sweespot for SNE tropical cyclones seems to be weak La Nina or cold-neutral.

 

2011 (Irene), 1996 (Bertha, Eduard close miss), 1985 (Gloria), 1971 (Doria), 1960 (Donna), 1954 (Edna, Carol), 1944 (Great Atlantic Hurricane), and 1938 (Long Island Express) all fall within weak La Nina or cold-neutral developing ENSO.

 

Hurricane Bob was the only significant storm to occur during a full developing El Nino...but it was a homebrew storm, so that's probably how to get them this season.

nino is in trouble

[weathafella]

nino is in trouble

Bold call. I don't see it.

[ORH_wxman]

nino is in trouble

 

 

Maybe the calls for a strong Nino are...but I would be surprised if we did not get at least a weak/moderate El Nino.

[Ginx snewx]

Maybe reaches nino state but this is starting to have that 12/13 false look to it, easterlies ruling the roost

[ackwaves]

New map. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/115906.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

That was certainly the case in 1991 durng that developing Nino.

But for the most part, El Ninos have been a wasteland for tropical systems up here. The ENSO sweespot for SNE tropical cyclones seems to be weak La Nina or cold-neutral.

2011 (Irene), 1996 (Bertha, Eduard close miss), 1985 (Gloria), 1971 (Doria), 1960 (Donna), 1954 (Edna, Carol), 1944 (Great Atlantic Hurricane), and 1938 (Long Island Express) all fall within weak La Nina or cold-neutral developing ENSO.

Hurricane Bob was the only significant storm to occur during a full developing El Nino...but it was a homebrew storm, so that's probably how to get them this season.

True, our record in ninos is pretty underwhelming, but a Bob redux would get no complaints from me. Even "just" a TS impact would spice things up nicely. Severe season might as well be a fanciful unicorn in my locale.