IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 12z VS 00z for the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 would be cool to get TC in PEI, will be there starting July 3rd-14..will take pic if i do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Stick a fork in it. Even Pre may totally miss NESE Mass, RI could get a dumpingWelcome back Kotter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 SE Mass, RI could get a dumping Welcome back Kotter Its quickly trending a twds a complete miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Its quickly trending a twds a complete miss I don't think there is anyone that disagrees with the fact that the current guidance consensus / NHC preferred track is well offshore of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I don't think there is anyone that disagrees with the fact that the current guidance consensus / NHC preferred track is well offshore of NE. Yeah I'm not sure either why people are using global models, they are awful with tropical systems, the Euro is respectable, the GFS on the border of poor/fair, all others are useless...if the hurricane models do not substantianally come west on the next 2 runs I won't make any major forecast changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Its quickly trending a twds a complete missThat is a good possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 I don't think there is anyone that disagrees with the fact that the current guidance consensus / NHC preferred track is well offshore of NE.Well I meant even rain wise. A met said he was trending it west based on ridge pumping east , but nothing supports that thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 You can't have hurricanes in well under 80 water. Rain and trivial winds for sne maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 You can't have hurricanes in well under 80 water. Rain and trivial winds for sne maybe. Its insanely hard to get a cane up here this early in the year purely based on two things, the water isn't as warm as it is in September north of the NC/SC coast, even then its not usually over 80 but its at least closer to 80 than it is now...two, the SW'lies are not strong so the systems tend to crawl up the coast or at least go slower than they would in September...I had said back in 2011 if Irene occurred 6 weeks later it would have made it up the coast as a Cat II probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 You can't have hurricanes in well under 80 water. Rain and trivial winds for sne maybe. Not being a wise ass, just curious what you consider trivial? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Looks like a decnet NW shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Its insanely hard to get a cane up here this early in the year purely based on two things, the water isn't as warm as it is in September north of the NC/SC coast, even then its not usually over 80 but its at least closer to 80 than it is now...two, the SW'lies are not strong so the systems tend to crawl up the coast or at least go slower than they would in September...I had said back in 2011 if Irene occurred 6 weeks later it would have made it up the coast as a Cat II probably. Irene got destroyed by dry air and shear. The time of the year didn't matter-storms that track parallel to the coast typically fare very poorly. Gloria is another example of a storm that largely fell apart, and that was a September storm. Belle also fell apart when it paralleled the shore. And the argument "we don't experience the strong side of the hurricane because the coast is west of the center" doesn't apply either- I live just east of where Irene's center made landfall and it was near high tide, and the surge was moderately damaging at best and the wind/rain was nothing more than you'd experience in a strong nor'easter. And it all quit very soon after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Not being a wise ass, just curious what you consider trivial? Under 35 mph sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Here's a map of all the storms of record for June and July passing within 200 miles of Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Under 35 mph sustained. Sounds about right for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Gonna be some prime surfing conditions if you're into to that activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Irene got destroyed by dry air and shear. The time of the year didn't matter-storms that track parallel to the coast typically fare very poorly. Gloria is another example of a storm that largely fell apart, and that was a September storm. Belle also fell apart when it paralleled the shore. And the argument "we don't experience the strong side of the hurricane because the coast is west of the center" doesn't apply either- I live just east of where Irene's center made landfall and it was near high tide, and the surge was moderately damaging at best and the wind/rain was nothing more than you'd experience in a strong nor'easter. And it all quit very soon after landfall. Don't tell people in the Catskills that Irene was destroyed by dry air or that the rain was nothing more than a strong nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Don't tell people in the Catskills that Irene was destroyed by dry air or that the rain was nothing more than a strong nor'easter. Well tropical systems and high terrain don't mix. That would happen with a depression too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 If there is something to be taken from this storm in our neck of the woods, it's that yesterday, at the cusp of becoming a tropical depression, the GFS had this thing as a 1012 mb landfall in southern S Carolina. The ECMWF, meanwhile, had a bonifide hurricane (1012 mb was approximately the outer ring of the low pressure system) scraping the outer banks. It remains to be seen which global model ends up more accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Pre west.. severe to the nw.. cyclone to the Se.. sounds like a snooze potential exists for the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Forkys had a rough winter,spring and now summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Forkys had a rough winter,spring and now summer. lol, But he rips others that are working in the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looks like SNE is screw zone. West side sucking on dry air is ours as it moves way offshore. Pre fail. If we don't see rains today/ tomorrow from storms we may not see much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 overnight models came west a bit. i guess that's why this thread got quiet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I thought the early cycle stuff was east. GFS ticked SE too. I don't think it's much of anything for most outside of Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Reminds me of some of the winter storm discussions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I thought the early cycle stuff was east. GFS ticked SE too. I don't think it's much of anything for most outside of Cape.awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Seems stationary or maybe drifting NW. I imagine slower now translates to further east as it gets further north later. http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/pie_None_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Seems stationary or maybe drifting NW. I imagine slower now translates to further east as it gets further north later. http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/pie_None_anim.gif Looks more in line of a scraper for you now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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