CT Rain Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 GFS is very close to the coast... all the models have been trending west. I could see a track over SNE if this thing wjnds up scraping the coast the whole way up... As in a a SC landfall vs OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 GFS is very close to the coast... all the models have been trending west. I just don't see an HWRF scenario right now. I do see heavy rain potential with this , but as far as wind goes....probably not a big deal. Maybe ACK if it comes close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 At least I got a conversation going on it.. It's nice to have a tropical storm to follow in late June.. Seems rare, hopefully a sign of better things to come this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 We now have TD1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Always exciting to be in the cone.. Even if chances are we won't get much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 We get stronger systems with bigger wind threats in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 We could use the rain. Timing blows though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Still weird to see in early July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 GFS is close to ACK, Euro, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Gfs moved closer 12z models should be interesting now that we actually have a td Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Do both euro and gfs show the pre? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 GFS is close to ACK, Euro, not so much. Where's the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Could use the rain, this isnt what i had in mind lol. Hopefully we can salavage friday night for fireworks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Latest GFS rockets it through overnight Fri night. All gone by Sat afternoon. At least here on ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 That is at least one good thing on these remnant TS, They are usually hauling once they get to this lat and are out of here fairly rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Could use the rain, this isnt what i had in mind lol. Hopefully we can salavage friday night for fireworks We getting closer to a better consensus on timing, so what's the latest thinking for the brunt of the rain, and how far into the region from the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 We have Art http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0114W5_NL+gif/145625W5_NL_sm.gif … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 wheeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 GFS has a whole looked a hair west on this run. Gives the Cape a deluge Friday evening. Probably decent wind too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 GFS has a whole looked a hair west on this run. Gives the Cape a deluge Friday evening. Probably decent wind too.With the progressiveness of that front you have to think Euro is more correct. It won't shock me to see everything tickle east the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 With the progressiveness of that front you have to think Euro is more correct. It won't shock me to see everything tickle east the next few days The front slowed 3 hours on the GFS. I think tropical storm conditions are a good bet from Montauk point to Cape Cod Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 The front slowed 3 hours on the GFS. I think tropical storm conditions are a good bet from Montauk point to Cape Cod Friday night.I don't think anyone on SNE sees anything more than some rain and waves on south facing beaches. Euro will prob go east again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The front slowed 3 hours on the GFS. I think tropical storm conditions are a good bet from Montauk point to Cape Cod Friday night. Tough to get winds when you're on the NW quadrant of a minimal hurricane that goes well SE of Nantucket. Unless it begins extra-tropical transition much sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I don't think anyone on SNE sees anything more than some rain and waves on south facing beaches. Euro will prob go east again A majority of the 00z ECMWF individual ensemble mebers were inside of the OP last night and quite a few are coastal huggers evenutally passing inside or near the 40/70 benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 With the progressiveness of that front you have to think Euro is more correct. It won't shock me to see everything tickle east the next few days I sort of side with the euro too, but we'll see in a couple of hours. It just all depends on how organized this gets and how far west. The more disorganzied it is, the more of a westward track probably. Either way, it's no Bermuda Blues. Low clouds will rule the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 A majority of the 00z ECMWF individual ensemble mebers were inside of the OP last night and quite a few are coastal huggers evenutally passing inside or near the 40/70 benchmark.That would deliver rain and zero wind on west side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 That would deliver rain and zero wind on west side Either way you'll be spending Friday night indoors on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Either way you'll be spending Friday night indoors on the Cape.Well I wasn't planning on sleeping outside either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The 12z GGEM hooks Arther back towards the coast and brushes the Maine Beaches on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Interesting trends so far today. Obviously raises an eyebrow. Was bound to happen as the storm actually had not even really formed yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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