CT Rain Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Who would that be? I didn't send any texts on Art. From Shabbs "I 84 gonna be in screw zone. Subsidence zone from Arthur and fgen band doesn't make it there and PRE off to the NW" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 From Shabbs "I 84 gonna be in screw zone. Subsidence zone from Arthur and fgen band doesn't make it there and PRE off to the NW"What weather model is the First Alert Weather app (android if it matters) using for it's future radar simulation? It looks like it is the same model that Intellicast uses.Then, it appears that the future radar on the NBC CT website uses a different model than the app. Which model does that simulation utilize? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 From Shabbs "I 84 gonna be in screw zone. Subsidence zone from Arthur and fgen band doesn't make it there and PRE off to the NW" Zing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 000ABNT20 KNHC 211507TWOATSPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in thecentral tropical Atlantic.Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of lowpressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and theLesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signsof organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closedcirculation could be forming and that the system is producing asmall area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depressioncould develop during the next couple of days while the system moveswestward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that timehowever, environmental conditions are expected to become lessconducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles shouldmonitor the progress of this system.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Funny. I've bee thinking 1938 watching that pattern in the late mid/extended, and even this morning it occurred to me again ... But there's nothin in the tropic. Uhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2014 Author Share Posted July 21, 2014 The system near the Leewards looks to be borderline TS now. Certainly a TD. Will be interesting to see if we can get it into or near the Bahamas early next week with the deep trough over Midwest and southerly flow up into our area. We've also got the blocking high up to the NE with the -nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2014 Author Share Posted July 21, 2014 https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/491276800996429824 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 We have a cherry 000ABNT20 KNHC 211724TWOATTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure locatedabout 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has continued toincrease and show signs of organization during the past few hours.Satellite data indicate that the circulation has become betterdefined and the system is producing a small area of winds neartropical storm force. Only a small increase in organization of theshower activity would result in the formation of a tropicaldepression as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15to 20 mph during the next day or two. After that time, however,environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive fordevelopment or strengthening. Interests in the Lesser Antillesshould monitor the progress of this system.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2014 Author Share Posted July 21, 2014 @WXRISKCOM: **US EAST COAST THREAT ** 6-10D pattern CLEARLY shows 92L threat to East coast. Huge trough over Midwest & BIG High in west. Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 @WXRISKCOM: **US EAST COAST THREAT ** 6-10D pattern CLEARLY shows 92L threat to East coast. Huge trough over Midwest & BIG High in west. Atlantic The Hurricane models are indicating that this runs a few grounds in the islands. Southeast FL, the islands and possibly even the gulf down the road need to watch this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 @WXRISKCOM: **US EAST COAST THREAT ** 6-10D pattern CLEARLY shows 92L threat to East coast. Huge trough over Midwest & BIG High in west. Atlantic Ah hahaha... That said, with this semi perm weakness and/or outright trough incursion obsession by the atmosphere, aligning episodic steering fields up the EC, it could be an interesting season going forward. The Paul Roundy Probabilities product is actually flagging a potentially active mid August for the western Atlantic Basin. For the time being, we have a weak invest out along the CV railway ... we'll see, but HPC is up to 40% ... This feature, by the way, is the same one that [according to some new reports] took out that flight over west Africa last week. Sometimes special events out in time sort of find a way of developing their lineage muah hahaha. anywho - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Ah hahaha... That said, with this semi perm weakness and/or outright trough incursion obsession by the atmosphere, aligning episodic steering fields up the EC, it could be an interesting season going forward. The Paul Roundy Probabilities product is actually flagging a potentially active mid August for the western Atlantic Basin. For the time being, we have a weak invest out along the CV railway ... we'll see, but HPC is up to 40% ... This feature, by the way, is the same one that [according to some new reports] took out that flight over west Africa last week. Sometimes special events out in time sort of find a way of developing their lineage muah hahaha. anywho - P005 is 1938 Redux and P007 has no analogs. Lol http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 @WXRISKCOM: **US EAST COAST THREAT ** 6-10D pattern CLEARLY shows 92L threat to East coast. Huge trough over Midwest & BIG High in west. Atlantic problem is DT, we need a storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2014 Author Share Posted July 29, 2014 @cshabbott: Track is troubling, Intensity models poor “@WSI_Energy: nearly all European ensemble members develop #93L, #TSBertha http://t.co/4MDzeHcFEW” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 Good bye and good luck though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 Meh, virtually all east coast threats are modeled out to sea, just as many as Caribbean cruisers end up curving early... Can't say good bye Scott. What you can say is that it's eating SAL, and that akin to eating actual real steaming hot sh t and expecting to live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 Meh, virtually all east coast threats are modeled out to sea, just as many as Caribbean cruisers end up curving early... Can't say good bye Scott. What you can say is that it's eating SAL, and that akin to eating actual real steaming hot sh t and expecting to live. If it's really weak it will probably ride west and moisture get caught up over the East Coast, so that's possible. Just going by gut and thinking a larger deal is probably off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2014 Author Share Posted August 5, 2014 Euro has some tropical mischief off the SE coast later next week. Let's get one up here before Sept torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Euro has some tropical mischief off the SE coast later next week. Let's get one up here before Sept torchCongrats,Congrats Hawaii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 If it's really weak it will probably ride west and moisture get caught up over the East Coast, so that's possible. Just going by gut and thinking a larger deal is probably off the table. Good call! ...yeah, suppose in retrospect the writing was on the wall. What I find interesting is the modeling was like perfect days in advance. Hell the GFS had that basic track some 8 days in advance. It did actually get west of Bermuda though interestingly enough. Then we go into the Pacific where the Euro nailed the double threat to Hawaii also over a week out in time. The Roundy Probabilities are lighting up the Atlantic Basin closing out the month and heading into September, taking the region above climo by a considerable margin. Another sign of the breakdown/flop of the onset El Nino?? I noticed the SOI is slightly positive, which is slightly wrong for El Nino, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 I haven't looked..but I heard later Aug looks more favorable too..taking climo into consideration as well. I'll have to take a peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 19380920_1.jpg VA capes are right where ET transition started to occur. It's also the about the lowest latitude you can possibly get a negatively tilted troff south the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2014 Author Share Posted August 13, 2014 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 6m Late summer pattern could prove warm for eastern US. But also increase hurricane risk. Newfoundland ridge forms. pic.twitter.com/gp62pt5kWd Reply 6Retweet 1Favorite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 <p> Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 6m Late summer pattern could prove warm for eastern US. But also increase hurricane risk. Newfoundland ridge forms. pic.twitter.com/gp62pt5kWd Reply 6Retweet 1Favorite Still that pattern would favor a SE landfall with a heading of NW or NNW right? You need a very amplified digging trough approaching the eastern seaboard at the right moment to capture and fling an otherwise recurving TC north or NNW into SNE......no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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