Ginx snewx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Can a met other than Forky tell us whether Forky was right for the right reasons? He was right...right about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 right about?Omg it's a tornado, look at that couplet... He was right about wagons west. Can't argue with that in the larger scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I would still wait to see how it makes a right turn. I still think a track near the BM is probably most likely or even a tick outside. There is a chance it may turn more NE or NNE briefly as it tries to get captured and make it's closest pass to ACK right to the east of it instead of south or southeast of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Hat is screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 This is an awesome storm for early July. We're pretty lucky it's skipping east....I'm kind of amazed we're seeing something make a run at us this early. Exactly.... Very rare this time of the year, and this hurricane has definitely overperformed for a change. But yet.. people on here basically laughed at me 4 days ago when I brought it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Exactly.... Very rare this time of the year, and this hurricane has definitely overperformed for a change. But yet.. people on here basically laughed at me 4 days ago when I brought it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I would still wait to see how it makes a right turn. I still think a track near the BM is probably most likely or even a tick outside. There is a chance it may turn more NE or NNE briefly as it tries to get captured and make it's closest pass to ACK right to the east of it instead of south or southeast of it.To be fair, he never specified the Northeast. Arthur was being modeled to miss land completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 To be fair, he never specified the Northeast. Arthur was being modeled to miss land completely.yesterday? Uh no. Look at the 11 pm advisory tonight, pretty much exactly what was expected up here, there was no ridge pumping, Arthur will be flying south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 yesterday? Uh no. Look at the 11 pm advisory tonight, pretty much exactly what was expected up here, there was no ridge pumping, Arthur will be flying southThat's what I was asking wrt the ridge pumping claim, the storm was absolutely NOT modeled to make landfall at Moreshead yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 It meandered a lot too. TCs are fickle, just a small change in the angle of approach means a landfall at ILM or HSE. Not easy with an a SW-NE angled coastline. I never really focused on the southeast, but I don't know that ridge pumping was involved this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 That's fine, then the answer is no, Forky was full of it. Perfectly acceptable answer, I just didn't know it on my own. I give people the benefit of the doubt, even if they troll sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 That's fine, then the answer is no, Forky was full of it. Perfectly acceptable answer, I just didn't know it on my own. I give people the benefit of the doubt, even if they troll sometimes.well he is certainly not full of it, we bust his chops but his premise is not without validity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 That's fine, then the answer is no, Forky was full of it. Perfectly acceptable answer, I just didn't know it on my own. I give people the benefit of the doubt, even if they troll sometimes. I never said that. I was referring to what's going on now. If this thing comes near ACK then you have a case. It also depends on forward speed and this sped up a bit today too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Good news is that tomorrow could end up decent in the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I never said that. I was referring to what's going on now. If this thing comes near ACK then you have a case. It also depends on forward speed and this sped up a bit today too.I just don't recall him saying "New England" when he said he thought it would come west. It certainly came west in landfall location. Is it because of pumping the ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Good news is that tomorrow could end up decent in the afternoonTomorrow evening will be cool, breezy with low dewpoints. It'll feel so nice after the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I never said that. I was referring to what's going on now. If this thing comes near ACK then you have a case. It also depends on forward speed and this sped up a bit today too.Sometimes I post sarcatically or with humor intended, but sometimes you interpret my posts as confrontational when really I am just naive. This situation would be the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Ready in PEI for my TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Ready in PEI for my ETFYP and it should be a great storn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 5 am advisory brings the center halfway between 40/70 and ACK. getting close to nowcast time wrt to the rainfall. Three main bands at the moment, the frontal band from NW of DC-Central NH, outer shield of Arthur from Williamsburg, VA-ACY (which is trying to extend up to E LI, and the core of Arthur. Looking at WRF the frontal stuff will stay to NW. The outer shield stuff looks to get SE CT/RI/E Mass. no one gets the core other than ACK/maybe outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 Gusts to 50 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 8am. Rain, and it doesn't look like it's going anywhere anytime soon. Curious what the 24hr total is going to be here. PRE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 FYP and it should be a great storn looks like the center will go right over my head will post updates later, right now is beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 There will be a sharp cutoff with the rain from Arthur. Definitely a screw zone somewhere perhaps in central or ern MA. Tough to tell exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 Rain in FMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 Screw area is gonna be I84 in CT. Miss the fronto stuff and the moisture from Art Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Screw area is gonna be I84 in CT. Miss the fronto stuff and the moisture from Ar yeah, looks about right, check out the latest HRRR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Screw area is gonna be I84 in CT. Miss the fronto stuff and the moisture from Art Might want to credit your information to those who were discussing it with you on text message lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Might want to credit your information to those who were discussing it with you on text message lol LOL, when has that ever happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 Might want to credit your information to those who were discussing it with you on text message lolWho would that be? I didn't send any texts on Art. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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