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Tropical Disco 2014 SNE

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
  On 7/1/2014 at 7:21 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Its quickly trending a twds a complete miss

 

I don't think there is anyone that disagrees with the fact that the current guidance consensus / NHC preferred track is well offshore of NE.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
  On 7/1/2014 at 7:39 PM, JC-CT said:

I don't think there is anyone that disagrees with the fact that the current guidance consensus / NHC preferred track is well offshore of NE.

Yeah I'm not sure either why people are using global models, they are awful with tropical systems, the Euro is respectable, the GFS on the border of poor/fair, all others are useless...if the hurricane models do not substantianally come west on the next 2 runs I won't make any major forecast changes.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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Posted
  On 7/1/2014 at 8:14 PM, weathafella said:

You can't have hurricanes in well under 80 water. Rain and trivial winds for sne maybe.

 

Its insanely hard to get a cane up here this early in the year purely based on two things, the water isn't as warm as it is in September north of the NC/SC coast, even then its not usually over 80 but its at least closer to 80 than it is now...two, the SW'lies are not strong so the systems tend to crawl up the coast or at least go slower than they would in September...I had said back in 2011 if Irene occurred 6 weeks later it would have made it up the coast as a Cat II probably.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
  On 7/1/2014 at 8:22 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

Its insanely hard to get a cane up here this early in the year purely based on two things, the water isn't as warm as it is in September north of the NC/SC coast, even then its not usually over 80 but its at least closer to 80 than it is now...two, the SW'lies are not strong so the systems tend to crawl up the coast or at least go slower than they would in September...I had said back in 2011 if Irene occurred 6 weeks later it would have made it up the coast as a Cat II probably.

Irene got destroyed by dry air and shear. The time of the year didn't matter-storms that track parallel to the coast typically fare very poorly. Gloria is another example of a storm that largely fell apart, and that was a September storm. Belle also fell apart when it paralleled the shore. And the argument "we don't experience the strong side of the hurricane because the coast is west of the center" doesn't apply either- I live just east of where Irene's center made landfall and it was near high tide, and the surge was moderately damaging at best and the wind/rain was nothing more than you'd experience in a strong nor'easter. And it all quit very soon after landfall.

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chietanen

chietanen

Posted
Posted
  On 7/1/2014 at 8:35 PM, jm1220 said:

Irene got destroyed by dry air and shear. The time of the year didn't matter-storms that track parallel to the coast typically fare very poorly. Gloria is another example of a storm that largely fell apart, and that was a September storm. Belle also fell apart when it paralleled the shore. And the argument "we don't experience the strong side of the hurricane because the coast is west of the center" doesn't apply either- I live just east of where Irene's center made landfall and it was near high tide, and the surge was moderately damaging at best and the wind/rain was nothing more than you'd experience in a strong nor'easter. And it all quit very soon after landfall.

 

Don't tell people in the Catskills that Irene was destroyed by dry air or that the rain was nothing more than a strong nor'easter.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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  On 7/2/2014 at 12:45 AM, chietanen said:

Don't tell people in the Catskills that Irene was destroyed by dry air or that the rain was nothing more than a strong nor'easter.

Well tropical systems and high terrain don't mix. That would happen with a depression too.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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Posted

If there is something to be taken from this storm in our neck of the woods, it's that yesterday, at the cusp of becoming a tropical depression, the GFS had this thing as a 1012 mb landfall in southern S Carolina. The ECMWF, meanwhile, had a bonifide hurricane (1012 mb was approximately the outer ring of the low pressure system) scraping the outer banks. It remains to be seen which global model ends up more accurate :axe:

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