TalcottWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Look up Arthur from 96'. I see similar track, just closer to cape, islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 4:57 PM, sbos_wx said: Look up Arthur from 96'. I see similar track, just closer to cape, islands. Pretty nice tower going up on the NW quadrant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 4:22 PM, CoastalWx said: I sort of side with the euro too, but we'll see in a couple of hours. It just all depends on how organized this gets and how far west. The more disorganzied it is, the more of a westward track probably. Either way, it's no Bermuda Blues. Low clouds will rule the day. i'm leaning west. i think arthur will keep pumping the ridge east of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I'll be in jersey inland (Princeton) which may be too far west. Should be fun nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Looks like a landfall near Wilmington, NC? That would put OBX in the NE qudrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 5:05 PM, forkyfork said: i'm leaning west. i think arthur will keep pumping the ridge east of it I go back and forth with that. Yeah a ton of convection would pump up ridge, but then you are prone to westerlies scooting it east. The cold front did slow down on the GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 This one is for you Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 5:42 PM, IsentropicLift said: This one is for you Kevin Light rain and winds 25 mph in FMH? I'd rather a miss OTS. Like i said...Give me a cane or strong TS and damage or nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 5:51 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Light rain and winds 25 mph in FMH? I'd rather a miss OTS. Like i said...Give me a cane or strong TS and damage or nothing Light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 WXRISK.COM @WXRISKCOM 9m ** US WEATHER ALERT ** MY latest forecast on ARTHUR https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/tropical-storm-hurricane-arthur-july-3-4-mostly-on-the-coast/711264982254096 … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 DT is for people who don't know anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 5:55 PM, forkyfork said: DT is for people who don't know anything Good Lord, what does that make you good for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Euro is well east with Arthur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 6:15 PM, Snow88 said: Euro is well east with Arthur West of previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 6:15 PM, Snow88 said: Euro is well east with Arthur East compared to other models. It's west of it's 0z run and much slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 6:20 PM, Brian5671 said: East compared to other models. It's west of it's 0z run and much slower. It's way SE of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 If you had taken the timing of the previous run along with the stronger ridge this would have made landfall near Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 6:20 PM, CoastalWx said: It's way SE of 00z Not down south it's not. Only once it gets up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 6:20 PM, CoastalWx said: It's way SE of 00z yeah you're right-I was looking at the hr 66 and 72 panels. Makes sense given typical climo which usually boots these things east. I'd say the Euro is likely onto something. Saves the 4th to some extent too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 6:22 PM, IsentropicLift said: Not down south it's not. Only once it gets up here. Well that's all most of us care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 And it only matters to what happens up here as far as i am concerned, It will be a rocket going by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 6:25 PM, CoastalWx said: Well that's all most of us care about. Aren't tropical cyclone tracks subject to huge error beyond 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Euro vs American models.. should be an interesting 72-96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 6:27 PM, IsentropicLift said: Aren't tropical cyclone tracks subject to huge error beyond 48 hours? No... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 On 7/1/2014 at 6:27 PM, IsentropicLift said: Aren't tropical cyclone tracks subject to huge error beyond 48 hours? Of course, but it's more a function of the trough sharpness too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Stick a fork in it. Even Pre may totally miss NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I'd have to look more at the trough alignment when I get off of being mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 No ridge pumping east of Art on Euro says it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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