prinsburg_wx Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 A variety of winter storm & blizzard watches are up for portions of MN, SD & ND for late sun thru tue. PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD445 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014A PROGRESSIVE UPPER JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL REACHCENTRAL CA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS DYNAMIC FEATURE WILL SLIDETHROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON SUN BEFORE THE SHORT WAVEEJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR MON. THE IMPULSE WILL BEGIN TOINTERACT WITH THE NRN POLAR STREAM/FRONTAL ZONE... AS A SURFACELOW TRACKS FROM NERN CO TO SWRN MN ON MON AND PROCEEDS DOWNSTREAMTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUES. THE RESULTANT WILL BE WIDESPREAD HEAVYSNOWFALL FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH THECHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.THE BULK OF THE HEAVY SNOW ON SUN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST... ASFAVORABLE UPPER JET STRUCTURE COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICFORCING FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE CA SIERRA TO THE NRNWASATCH/UINTAS AND TETONS. THEN THE FOCUS ON MON SHIFTS FROM THEFRONT RANGE OF THE NRN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES OR WY THROUGH SD/SERN NDINTO NRN/CENTRAL MN. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPENRAPIDLY... DRAW IN INCREASING GULF OF MEXICO RETURN FLOW... AS NRNPOLAR FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. THERESULTANT WILL BE A SOMEWHAT NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL FROMRAP TO DLH AND THE HEAVIEST AXIS FROM NERN SD/SERN ND TO NRN MN.THIS IS WHERE 4 TO 12 INCH HEAVY SNOW PROBS WERE ISSUED BYFOLLOWING A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THEN ON TUES ASTHE SYSTEM PROCEEDS DOWNSTREAM BUT AT A SLOWER CLIP... THE 500MBTROUGH WILL TAKE A NEG TILT AND DEFORMATION REGION WILL SWEEPACROSS MN INTO WI AND THE UP OF MI. WPC STAYED ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TOTHE GFS AND ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 This is a classic late winter/early spring storm for the N Plains. This is very reminiscent of the Feb 28th-29th storm from 2012, albeit a much weaker wave. Models poorly handled the lee ejection and rapid cyclogenesis with that low, and it busted hard south. There is potential for that here as well. Interestingly the ECMWF nailed that event, and here is it leading the way with a N solution, however. So that is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Forecast soundings off the gfs and nam showing a potential ice event on the north shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 30, 2014 Author Share Posted March 30, 2014 0Z RGEM even further north yet with a full blown blizzard for BIS/GFK & tstorms for MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 0Z RGEM even further north yet with a full blown blizzard for BIS/GFK & tstorms for MSP. This is going to be a close call, real close, especially for locations near GFK. I am STILL worried that the split flow PV ejects the Rockies and deepens too fast, and takes a S track. Living in GFK I have seen it so often. But the ECMWF has been leading the way here...with the other guidance trending to it. Still high bust potential...and there will be a solid gradient on the N end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Baro, I have a question to ask, not about this storm but the one that may follow it on April 3-4th, I'm putting it here because I don't want it to get lost in the severe thread. While I can't post maps because they are password protected, I have noticed that the operational ECMWF insists on closing off the northern stream energy, now the ECMWF ensemble mean from 03/29 12z run is showing the same thing. How much credence would you put on that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Hi early morning forecast from NWS GF.... the Euro held firm and seems to be the winner most models trending that way. GFS model remains taking the low to about MSP whereas the GEM/Euro take more from Sioux Falls to Wilmar area to near Duluth. WPC folks like the GEM/Euro and so does Environment Canada. EC Winnipeg has issued winter storm watches up to Winnipeg region south and east...though Winnipeg itself on the edge. It does seem GFK right in the broad zone of 10-12+ inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Are we just using standard 10:1 ratios for snow totals? ECMWF QPF totals are between 1.75 and 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 the 4km NAM forecasts a lot of snow for North Dakota, northern Minnesota, and Billings MT. Note that Billings is already 55.2" of snow above their seasonal-to-date snowfall (more than 200% of normal for the season). gray/white is 12-16" and yellow is 24" on this plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 15z SREF ensemble mean has 29 inches for GFK... this would cripple the city if it were to verify... interesting how the NAM/SREF/ECMWF have really converged on such a high ceiling event. Even the GFS shifted north a bit even though its further south... GFK would still get 8-10 it seems based on the GFS, but it is the outlier. Still think this system has high bust potential, at least for GFK... someone is going to get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Was just glancing at the plumes for GFK, absolutely insane with a few members over 3' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Looks like I will be eating my words on this one. ECMWF nailed this track from 3-4 days ago. A big difference here from past busts is the warm sector is completely lacking significant return flow moisture, with the usual fly in the ointment warm sector convection not even a part of the discussion. An impressive deep coupled upper level jet and a closed circulation from surface to 300 hpa and a hellacious baroclinic zone, the atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics are good for a significant crushing over the sweet spot within the WCB defo band. Honestly the only thing that may keep this from dumping 3" hr with TSSN is the lack of lower static stability return flow air from the S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Baro, I have a question to ask, not about this storm but the one that may follow it on April 3-4th, I'm putting it here because I don't want it to get lost in the severe thread. While I can't post maps because they are password protected, I have noticed that the operational ECMWF insists on closing off the northern stream energy, now the ECMWF ensemble mean from 03/29 12z run is showing the same thing. How much credence would you put on that?? Sorry for late response. I haven't been looking terribly close at that system, but all the guidance seems to be hinting at some sort of split stream trough ejecting the 4 corners. Confluent flow in the N stream and a washed out baroclinic zone wouldn't lend much confidence to a significant closed and deep low, but it will have a significant moisture tap available. Essentially it will be highly dependent upon the strength of the leeside PV anomaly, and that at 4.5 days can be somewhat variable. But it is definitely plausible, and it seems the GFS has caught on to the idea the ECMWF is still hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 The radar is starting to fill in nicely now. Latest MD from SPC mentioning the possibility of 2 in/hr rates later this afternoon for E ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Very sharp cut-off here in southern Manitoba. Getting light snow in the southern RRV of MB but not much more yet. Will see how the heavier bands south of the border do as they continue feeding north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 North Dakota --- NDZ004>008-012>016-024-026-027-054-311700- NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS GRAND FORKS HVY SNOW 18 14 84 N28G33 29.85F VSB 1/4 WCI -1 GRND FRKS AFB SNOW 14 10 85 N30G40 29.90S VSB 1/2 WCI -7 DEVILS LAKE CLOUDY 9 0 66 N38G44 29.94F VSB<1/4 WCI -16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 31, 2014 Author Share Posted March 31, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL SD AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN ND TO NORTHWEST MN CONCERNING...BLIZZARD VALID 311708Z - 312245Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR AND AT LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SD AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN. DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS/WEST-CENTRAL NEB AS OF MIDDAY...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /AROUND 992 MB/ LOCATED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE YANKTON/SIOUX FALLS VICINITIES AS OF 17Z. SNOW IS ALREADY ONGOING ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN ND...AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS PROBABLE AS THE PARENT CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD/MODESTLY DEEPEN. FURTHERMORE...STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS /45+ KT/ WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THOUGH THE AFTERNOON. INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER JET EXIT REGION/WARM ADVECTION ASIDE...THE RELATIVE COLLOCATION OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/WEAK STATIC STABILITY AND EVEN SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ARE INFLUENCING THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS HIGHLY-ORGANIZED/CONTRACTING SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED INTENSE SNOW BANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME LIGHTNING RECENTLY /1645Z/ NOTED BETWEEN JAMESTOWN AND FARGO IN SOUTHEAST ND. SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR AND AT LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SNOW RATES APPROACHING 2 IN/HR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME OF THE MOST INTENSE/CONVECTIVE BANDS INTO EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 03/31/2014 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Light freezing rain just north of Duluth now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 West of GFK continues to get dumped on while GFK proper is sitting between bands. Several lightning strikes NW of Fargo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 31, 2014 Author Share Posted March 31, 2014 on the warm side of the storm there have been several tornado sightings in w MN. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN425 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...* UNTIL 445 PM CDT* AT 422 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANBY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...PROVIDENCE AND DAWSON.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO ANINTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOIDWINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THECLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 West of GFK continues to get dumped on while GFK proper is sitting between bands. Several lightning strikes NW of Fargo Shows how rare this storm is. I never once saw TSSN in GFK, and this storm has unimpressive moisture feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 on the warm side of the storm there have been several tornado sightings in w MN. Insane baroclinic zone over you prins. mid 60s ahead of the front...teens 100 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Awesome sat presentation on the single storm, then there is this. Rare indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 1, 2014 Author Share Posted April 1, 2014 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 711 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014 0500 PM HEAVY SNOW THIEF RIVER FALLS 48.11N 96.18W 03/31/2014 E9.0 INCH PENNINGTON MN BROADCAST MEDIA 0631 PM HEAVY SNOW ROSEAU 48.85N 95.76W 03/31/2014 M10.0 INCH ROSEAU MN TRAINED SPOTTER 0700 PM HEAVY SNOW GRAND FORKS 47.92N 97.07W 03/31/2014 M9.5 INCH GRAND FORKS ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 644 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0640 PM HEAVY SNOW JAMESTOWN 46.91N 98.71W 03/31/2014 E10.0 INCH STUTSMAN ND PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Just got back inside after driving around a bit in town here. We were in a stock 2002 Cherokee and had no problems cruising around but the roads were awful still and we didn't see one maintenance vehicle. We encountered numerous autos that had become stuck in drifts and whatnot. I'll be surprised if they don't just cancel classes on campus tomorrow, even though we're already delayed until 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Well, they cancelled classes until 4:30pm today. It's tough to tell but I estimate we have about 12" in front of my apartment, which fits with some other reports here in town of anywhere between 9.5"-13". Places just west and NE of here saw higher accumulations, some as much as 18". All hail the Euro I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 some radar images with obs and storm reports from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Well, they cancelled classes until 4:30pm today. It's tough to tell but I estimate we have about 12" in front of my apartment, which fits with some other reports here in town of anywhere between 9.5"-13". Places just west and NE of here saw higher accumulations, some as much as 18". All hail the Euro I guess. UND has really gotten "soft" compared to my days. There was a time they wouldn't close for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 UND has really gotten "soft" compared to my days. There was a time they wouldn't close for anything. They tried their hardest not to. They cancelled Monday morning at 5:30 and then Tuesday morning at about 8:30. It's not like any out of town students or faculty would have been able to get here anyways ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 UND has really gotten "soft" compared to my days. There was a time they wouldn't close for anything. It does sound like they've gone soft compared to the stories I've heard. But I know there's no way I could have even attempted to get out of my parking space until about 4:00pm Tuesday, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.