WxBell explained by Ryan Maue

[ACFD FIREMAN]

This video is from last month and answers many questions about WxBell that are tossed around here. Particularly the Euro snowfall maps. Around the 6 minute mark, Maue explains how the ecmwf generates its snowfall maps.

Also he describes how he buys the ecmwf data and what WxBell makes in revenue.

 

[Animal]

Interesting to watch this video.

My thoughts

• Why if we spend so much money on our domestic models, do they still bust. Call out was how the GFS is not great summer. Winter? GFS craps the bed weekly imop.
• Canadian upgrade sounds promising. Free model vs Euro. 
• Great to hear the domestic short range models & investment HRR etc
• Too much talk about the euro model and how it is superior.
• Weather Bell has big egos.
• Concern that amateurs may take over the industry. lots of code language was noted.
• Guest speaker was upset that Hurricane Schwartz (PHL on air met) called him out.
• Weather Bell understands their Euro snow models are not correct but are cool with it.

 

 

Cheers

[AlaskaETC]

Interesting to watch this video.

My thoughts

• Why if we spend so much money on our domestic models, do they still bust. Call out was how the GFS is not great summer. Winter? GFS craps the bed weekly imop.
• Canadian upgrade sounds promising. Free model vs Euro. 
• Great to hear the domestic short range models & investment HRR etc
• Too much talk about the euro model and how it is superior.
• Weather Bell has big egos.
• Concern that amateurs may take over the industry. lots of code language was noted.
• Guest speaker was upset that Hurricane Schwartz (PHL on air met) called him out.
• Weather Bell understands their Euro snow models are not correct but are cool with it.

 

 

Cheers

 

No shock to anyone

[ACFD FIREMAN]

Not sure they have big ego's....they know their upside is capped. They do have a unique product for consumers but with so much weather forecast options its unlikely they will corner the market.

[Bob Chill]

Unless I don't what I'm talking about, ecmwf data has zero to do with wxbell's screwed up snow maps. Wxbell uses the same bad math for every single model. Model data is numerical. Even "if" the ecmwf had "bad snow map data", a vendor can correct that on their own.

[Animal]

Unless I don't what I'm talking about, ecmwf data has zero to do with wxbell's screwed up snow maps. Wxbell uses the same bad math for every single model. Model data is numerical. Even "if" the ecmwf had "bad snow map data", a vendor can correct that on their own.

 

If you watch the entire video, he spins his answers alot and no direct answer. If it was a public traded company this would not occur.

Can't blame him, can't toss your own company down the drain.

[Animal]

Not sure they have big ego's....they know their upside is capped. They do have a unique product for consumers but with so much weather forecast options its unlikely they will corner the market.

 

 

I will clarify my point.

You have options such as CWG that surely can get into the local agriculture business or energy forecasting market locally. Weather Bell targets these accounts now or in the future. You don't pay for the CWG service unless you buy the local rag  or online Post etc.

NWS is free and you get almost the same product in some degree as CWG or Weather Bell. Weather Bell needs to charge a premium and have a service that you can't  get elsewhere.

From a peer perspective, he gave off the vibe that he and his staff at weather bell are the only people that know what is going on in weather and how to distribute it to the general public.

[donsutherland1]

I will clarify my point.

You have options such as CWG that surely can get into the local agriculture business or energy forecasting market locally. Weather Bell targets these accounts now or in the future. You don't pay for the CWG service unless you buy the local rag  or online Post etc.

NWS is free and you get almost the same product in some degree as CWG or Weather Bell. Weather Bell needs to charge a premium and have a service that you can't  get elsewhere.

From a peer perspective, he gave off the vibe that he and his staff at weather bell are the only people that know what is going on in weather and how to distribute it to the general public.

 

How is Dr. Maue defining "product" and "industry?" Maps are essentially a commodity. The production and dissemination of maps is only a slice of the overall weather industry. There are really no meaningful barriers to imitation with that product and in that sector except in limited cases e.g., costs associated with the ECMWF's data.

 

The value added is in developing applications/products/services that serve clients' needs. Value added can come from superior performance or customized products/services. Superior performance is not easy to imitate, especially if forecasters' talent/knowledge are the underlying basis. The latter can require significant investment in research/time to develop a meaningful application. An example of a meaningful application is the recently unveiled energy demand index used by WSI.

 

IMO, I don't believe amateurs pose much of a threat to the firms that rely on superior performance. Repetition of model maps as forecasts can't really compete unless professional forecasters add no value to the model forecasts. That proposition hasn't been verified. In terms of developing applications, the pooling of knowledge from multiple fields (meteorology, finance, economics, statistics, programming) can allow for the critical mass that creates top-flight applications/customized services. That combination of talent is not the same thing as amateurs taking over the industry. It is a broadening of the talent pool.

 

In short, where growth of the weather forecasting industry faces a constraint is far more a function of growth in underlying demand from industries/users of weather information than it is of possible threats of amateurs entering portions of the industry in which entry barriers are low.

[donsutherland1]

I will clarify my point.

You have options such as CWG that surely can get into the local agriculture business or energy forecasting market locally. Weather Bell targets these accounts now or in the future. You don't pay for the CWG service unless you buy the local rag  or online Post etc.

NWS is free and you get almost the same product in some degree as CWG or Weather Bell. Weather Bell needs to charge a premium and have a service that you can't  get elsewhere.

From a peer perspective, he gave off the vibe that he and his staff at weather bell are the only people that know what is going on in weather and how to distribute it to the general public.

 

Providing specialized products/services requires investment in development of those products/services. That requirement would preclude providing free customized services on a large scale to industry users (energy, agriculture, transportation, etc.). The inferred fear is that agriculture users, for example, might find that the marginal value they receive when going beyond what CWG offers is essentially negative when the costs of that value are considered. And if CWG leveraged its credibility and talent to expand its focus, that would not be inconsistent with what has happened in other industries. Consumers, in the end, benefit from competition (existing competitors, new competitors that emerge, and substitutes that develop).

 

Finally, if Wxbell truly has unique knowledge in "what is going on in weather and how to distribute it to the general public," then it has nothing to fear from existing and potential rivals who lack that knowledge.

 

In sum, at least from the descriptions of Dr. Maue's remarks, it seems that the overriding concern is that industry competition is relatively intense. Of course, intense competition characterizes numerous industries, so this really isn't a singular phenomenon.

[winterymix]

...

 

In sum, at least from the descriptions of Dr. Maue's remarks, it seems that the overriding concern is that industry competition is relatively intense. Of course, intense competition characterizes numerous industries, so this really isn't a singular phenomenon.

Don:   I'm only joining in here to elaborate on your comments with three thoughts.

 

A.  The potential market of potential customers is small to begin with and also elastic.  For instance, some folks here have no hesitation in sharing that they join commercial meteorology vendors only for the "free trial" or only during the four months of potential snow season.

How many tens of thousands of consistent fee-paying customers can a company such as WeatherBell hope to attract?  The sky is not the limit.

 

B.  It seems that the overall profession of "forecasting meteorologists" may likely support fewer full time positions and that those holding full time career spots will typically have upper echelon skills as well as refined leadership and teamwork traits.  So much of the numerical analysis and graphic presentation skills will be developed by non-meteorologists that fewer positions will be needed throughout the US and competition for those positions will flush out the marginal meteorologists.   Society doesn't need more meteorologists, it needs more meteorologists with superior skills.

 

C.  Pressure is already on within the NWS to produce superior results at current staff levels and allowing for attrition, not with increase of meteorologist staff.  My overall impression is that the NWS is generally a superior entity, the glaring vulnerability being the domestic gap of numerical forecasting products in comparison to the superior super-computer capacity at the ecmwf.int.

 

The NWS appears to have plans in place to close that gap even with budget constraints.   Commercial meteorology firms act to some extent as  resellers.  Now, before the commercial meteorologists here mount an attack, those that are sharp and innovative will find profitable markets for their skills.  Still, this market is of limited size.

 

Because of those three factors, it seems unlikely that private/commercial meteorology firms have unlimited profit potential going forward.

[donsutherland1]

Don:   I'm only joining in here to elaborate on your comments with three thoughts.

 

A.  The potential market of potential customers is small to begin with and also elastic.  For instance, some folks here have no hesitation in sharing that they join commercial meteorology vendors only for the "free trial" or only during the four months of potential snow season.

How many tens of thousands of consistent fee-paying customers can a company such as WeatherBell hope to attract?  The sky is not the limit.

 

B.  It seems that the overall profession of "forecasting meteorologists" may likely support fewer full time positions and that those holding full time career spots will typically have upper echelon skills as well as refined leadership and teamwork traits.  So much of the numerical analysis and graphic presentation skills will be developed by non-meteorologists that fewer positions will be needed throughout the US and competition for those positions will flush out the marginal meteorologists.   Society doesn't need more meteorologists, it needs more meteorologists with superior skills.

 

C.  Pressure is already on within the NWS to produce superior results at current staff levels and allowing for attrition, not with increase of meteorologist staff.  My overall impression is that the NWS is generally a superior entity, the glaring vulnerability being the domestic gap of numerical forecasting products in comparison to the superior super-computer capacity at the ecmwf.int.

 

The NWS appears to have plans in place to close that gap even with budget constraints.   Commercial meteorology firms act to some extent as  resellers.  Now, before the commercial meteorologists here mount an attack, those that are sharp and innovative will find profitable markets for their skills.  Still, this market is of limited size.

 

Because of those three factors, it seems unlikely that private/commercial meteorology firms have unlimited profit potential going forward.

I strongly agree, Winterymix. That's why competition is relatively intense.

 

I don't believe marketing products to those who view weather as a hobby can generate significant profitability. Revenue from such sales can help defray the costs of firms' paying for the underlying product e.g., ECMWF data, that they need to provide superior or customized services to industrial users. The growth in demand for weather-related services from those industrial users has the largest impact on the weather industry's overall growth. Rapid growth within the weather industry likely requires providers of those services to take customers away their rivals or, in other words, to grow their market share, because the growth in demand for weather information from industrial users is relatively modest, though it varies from user industry to user industry. In turn, gaining market share requires a degree of innovation/improvement, customization, and consistently superior performance.

[MetalCapsFan]

This is a link to a post back @ the end of Feb from DT/WxRisk where he explains that the Eurowx.com snow maps use a different algorithm that does not include sleet/freezing rain in the snowfall totals...

http://m.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/-about-march-6-7-possible-big-snowstorm-sc-nc-va-/654311491282779/?refid=17

Anyone know if their maps ended up w/ a higher verification rate than WxBell?

[Animal]

How is Dr. Maue defining "product" and "industry?" Maps are essentially a commodity. The production and dissemination of maps is only a slice of the overall weather industry. There are really no meaningful barriers to imitation with that product and in that sector except in limited cases e.g., costs associated with the ECMWF's data.

 

The value added is in developing applications/products/services that serve clients' needs. Value added can come from superior performance or customized products/services. Superior performance is not easy to imitate, especially if forecasters' talent/knowledge are the underlying basis. The latter can require significant investment in research/time to develop a meaningful application. An example of a meaningful application is the recently unveiled energy demand index used by WSI.

 

IMO, I don't believe amateurs pose much of a threat to the firms that rely on superior performance. Repetition of model maps as forecasts can't really compete unless professional forecasters add no value to the model forecasts. That proposition hasn't been verified. In terms of developing applications, the pooling of knowledge from multiple fields (meteorology, finance, economics, statistics, programming) can allow for the critical mass that creates top-flight applications/customized services. That combination of talent is not the same thing as amateurs taking over the industry. It is a broadening of the talent pool.

 

In short, where growth of the weather forecasting industry faces a constraint is far more a function of growth in underlying demand from industries/users of weather information than it is of possible threats of amateurs entering portions of the industry in which entry barriers are low.

 

Don,

 

Amateurs are the future. Unless I am mistaken, you are a professional.  Are you not respected? Do you not focus your studies on the same data the others do too? The need of a person having to have a degree in the science or a specific focal point are done. 

Yes, NOAA may require 3 years of math, 2 years of public speaking, but what they don't require is 10 years of being smart.

Proof is in the delay of tax payer money again.

 

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2014/04/03/military-weather-satellite-ready-to-launch-after-15-year-wait/

 

 

 

Best.