michsnowfreak Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 It actually produced 1"+ QPF amounts across IN, so the amounts verified, just not the placement. This was because of the low tracking further SE than progged, thanks to the Gulf Coast convection. yeah I was just referring to SE MI. Parts of IN and OH have had tremendous rainfall already in apr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Nice to see see cumulus clouds once again. Mid and low level lapse rates are pretty steep and meso analysis is showing 250J/kg sbcape, maybe we can get some thunder if showers develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 you could not have asked for better conditions to melt the record snowpack. It was the perfect script. Wish we could see that kind of snowpack and melt every year lol I know what your saying and it was for the best BUT you should know me as I would have preferred the heavy rains and flooding the past couple weeks Oh course it helps knowing my yard can't flood (unless Detroit is under 300'+ of water) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 I know what your saying and it was for the best BUT you should know me as I would have preferred the heavy rains and flooding the past couple weeks Oh course it helps knowing my yard can't flood (unless Detroit is under 300'+ of water) I'm in the same boat (ha!) with you. Slow melt was pretty boring, rivers haven't really jumped their banks around here and with such a prime flood setup this year I'm a little bummed. Love seeing a raging river and I've yet to shoot a really good timelapse of the Grand River, Nith River or Sixteen Mile Creek (some personal favourites) rising and falling, a personal goal of mine. Thurs-Fri system should keep river levels up with maybe another 0.5" of rain and warm temps should melt all the remaining snow which sets up the weekend system pretty well. GFS has us getting 1"+ with that system so that could do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Amazing amt of ice still on L Superior... this could be a heck of a spring/summer if we can get some NE wind in here a few times.... http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/ Clouds just came out of nowhere here in the past half hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Amazing amt of ice still on L Superior... this could be a heck of a spring/summer if we can get some NE wind in here a few times.... http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/ Clouds just came out of nowhere here in the past half hour... its amazing. I never recall the Detroit river have thismuch ice here the 2nd week of april. The upper peninsula can kiss summer goodbye this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 It will be fun to watch how long Superior stays ice covered. Be a fun place to go this summer if it gets real hot around here. NW winds really blew but temp up to 59F... really been going above guidance...tonite looks like we drop below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 8, 2014 Author Share Posted April 8, 2014 Hit 56° here today. Drove through a t-shower a little while ago in Kenosha. Very spring feeling today. Pic of the cell before I drove through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2014 Author Share Posted April 9, 2014 Lake Michigan starting its warm up. 39° at the shoreline in Chicago and 42° at the crib according to Skilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 The 00z GFS really tried it with the system early next week, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2014 Author Share Posted April 9, 2014 The 00z GFS really tried it with the system early next week, lol... 6z managed something less. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014040906&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=150 EURO turned into a mainly wet frontal passage system, except for northern lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 6z managed something less. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014040906&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=150 EURO turned into a mainly wet frontal passage system, except for northern lower MI. according to the link in use for euro it still shows measurable snow for chicago and detroit. Gem was similar to gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Some area rivers started to hit the action stage overnight after yesterday's warm temps and sunshine. More of the same today could initiate some minor flooding. Grand River at West Montrose Yesterday morning 9am: This morning 9am: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Good shot at 70F today...looks like after sat its game over...next week looks pretty nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 lol Geos is so anti cold/snow. Can read it in every post the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 snowpack is in quick retreat. Depth ranges from a few inches in open areas to 15-20" up in the backyard by the woods. Closest long term climate station to me is Petoskey. Their season total is 183.1"..... Record is 183.9"..... would like to see an inch just to break the record, then on to Spring. Such a beautiful Spring day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 00z MEX had 75 here on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 snowpack is in quick retreat. Depth ranges from a few inches in open areas to 15-20" up in the backyard by the woods. Closest long term climate station to me is Petoskey. Their season total is 183.1"..... Record is 183.9"..... would like to see an inch just to break the record, then on to Spring. Such a beautiful Spring day! I could finally see well defined water around the edges of the lake by my house ... today should help get rid of more ice and I should be ice free by the weekend!! It would be nice for them to break the record. 1" in Petoskey and 1/2" at Flint is all that is needed. Maybe just maybe with next weeks front / system. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 00z MEX had 75 here on Saturday. Next week looks like we drop into the 20Fs, so i hope nothing blooms between now and then... My grass is turning very green here..and i'm sure buds are going to start swelling...especially early blooming trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2014 Author Share Posted April 9, 2014 lol Geos is so anti cold/snow. Can read it in every post the last month. Definitely. I may not want to see snow until November of 2015! --- Up into the mid 50s now. SW winds starting to push the weak lake breeze back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Temps struggling some today... maybe mid 60Fs if we are lucky. Some haziness earlier i think stalled temps enough to beat back any thoughts of 70f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2014 Author Share Posted April 9, 2014 Been able to get into the low 60s now. Very nice out! High of 62° today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 10, 2014 Author Share Posted April 10, 2014 Still very mild at this hour near 58°. Noticed a lot more green blades of grass shooting up this afternoon. Saw quite a few people biking this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 So the NAM wants to bring 70's into the area and then blows up thunderstorms along the warm front with 1000j/kg SBCAPE on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 So the NAM wants to bring 70's into the area and then blows up thunderstorms along the warm front with 1000j/kg SBCAPE on Saturday. I would keep an eye on this one, it doesn't take much to get things interesting with a warm front, 1000 j/kg is plenty of instability this time of year, though the NAM is surprisingly lacking in the shear department along the warm front. I would suspect more shear than currently being shown. Edit: That being said when looking at a point sounding for 21z near Chicago, it does show some shear with height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 10, 2014 Author Share Posted April 10, 2014 So the NAM wants to bring 70's into the area and then blows up thunderstorms along the warm front with 1000j/kg SBCAPE on Saturday. Yeah definitely decent CAPE on the NAM. Chasera should be getting pretty excited now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 I would keep an eye on this one, it doesn't take much to get things interesting with a warm front, 1000 j/kg is plenty of instability this time of year, though the NAM is surprisingly lacking in the shear department along the warm front. I would suspect more shear than currently being shown. Edit: That being said when looking at a point sounding for 21z near Chicago, it does show some shear with height. It definitely has my interest, too bad the NAM is on its own with regards to the evolution of this weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 It definitely has my interest, too bad the NAM is on its own with regards to the evolution of this weekend system. GFS actually is pretty similar on warm frontal placement maybe a bit south. The major difference is the GFS has the temperatures grossly underdone. I think the NAM's thermodynamic profile is not unreasonable along and just south of the warm front compared to the GFS's lower temperatures. I would take these temperatures across IA/IL/S WI and probably add 5 to as much as 10 degrees to them. The main issue with the GFS is that it is too moist through the mid levels, thus prompting mid and high level cloud cover which would hold down the temperatures. Local NWS offices already have most of those areas in the upper 60s to low 70s for highs on Saturday, which would fall closer in line to my thoughts on temperatures for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 P&C shows a high of 70 for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 10, 2014 Author Share Posted April 10, 2014 Very mild here over night. Above guidance, low of 52°. Probably will be hitting 60° by 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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