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April 2014 General Discussion


Geos

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My rain gauge shows 2.6.  Maybe it isn't accurate since Mottster got so much more.  Roads are being closed here between Zionsville and Westfield--a little late.  I ended up driving through some higher water than I should have attempted.

For my office here in Carmel has 3.5.. 

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gonna end up well over an inch probably close to 2…definitely been a wet stretch here.

 

Yeah 0.10" here so far. Maybe some convection can fire off ahead of the cold front and swipe the area.

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Intense hydrograph from Huntington IN:

 

lrhi3_hg.png

 

I've been watching that Hydrograph all day. The river is 5 blocks from my house, which is safely on high ground. Have spent the day keeping local officials updated on the situation. Sandbagging operations have been taking place all afternoon and into tonight.

 

The river rise has actually leveled out in the past couple of hours. Keeping a close eye on radar. Another .25" or so may not be too bad. Any more than that and Katie bar the door for a record flood.

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miserable day. Cold, raw rain...yuck. Did notice another house nearby harboring some old snow still. This is the first rain of any significance this spring (0.30" at DTW) but really it is completely uneccessary as the ground is very saturated from all the snowmelt.

 

I wouldn't say completely unnecessary ... it is nice to was some of that snow mold off ... though there wasn't enough rain to get rid of it around here.  I actually had IP/ZR most of the day with minor accumulation even on trees.  I think the breeze off the frozen lake here help keep my temps down.

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I've been watching that Hydrograph all day. The river is 5 blocks from my house, which is safely on high ground. Have spent the day keeping local officials updated on the situation. Sandbagging operations have been taking place all afternoon and into tonight.

 

The river rise has actually leveled out in the past couple of hours. Keeping a close eye on radar. Another .25" or so may not be too bad. Any more than that and Katie bar the door for a record flood.

 

12ft river rise would have made for a great time lapse. Would love to capture a flash flood like that someday.

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This system turned into nothing but a 10-minute thundershower for us.  This part of Iowa got stuck in no-man's-land, between the deformation zone well to the nw and the heavy storms well to the south.

 

Yeah considering how much this storm system had to offer our areas pretty much fell between the cracks.  Areas south and east cashed in, just like they did all winter. 

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0.10" of precip through out this whole event. I thought for sure 0.50"+ at least. 

I have learned over the years that these systems the QPF never get as far north at modeled. Typically the warm front will stall well south of the Great Lakes.  Models surge it north way to fast.  This storm has done what 95% of the storms like this do in this area.  If the trend is remains the same today we will get some additional rains but the end result will be nothing close to what was originally modeled (i.e. well over 1" rains).

 

FYI ... this morning I heard a little ice crackling n the trees as my temp was 32F ... :lol: ... this is pretty localized because I am getting a breeze off the frozen lake in my area which must be helping keep me just below freezing.  As I drove away from my house the car temp went up to 33 within 2 miles.

 

EDIT:  Before I get 50 responses about other areas and that the models did great for your area.  My comments are specifically talking about DMC76 and MBY areas (i.e. Oakland and Livingston Counties in MI).  I am not trying to review model performance in other areas!!!!

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Instead of model forecasted 3 days of "real" rain here (Wed-Fri), it was in reality, about a 12 hour deal. Granted we got it good during those 12 hours.

 

And the local forecaster's call of upper 60's/low 70's for yesterday and today was a spectacular failure. Par for the course.

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I have learned over the years that these systems the QPF never get as far north at modeled. Typically the warm front will stall well south of the Great Lakes.  Models surge it north way to fast.  This storm has done what 95% of the storms like this do in this area.  If the trend is remains the same today we will get some additional rains but the end result will be nothing close to what was originally modeled (i.e. well over 1" rains).

 

FYI ... this morning I heard a little ice crackling n the trees as my temp was 32F ... :lol: ... this is pretty localized because I am getting a breeze off the frozen lake in my area which must be helping keep me just below freezing.  As I drove away from my house the car temp went up to 33 within 2 miles.

 

EDIT:  Before I get 50 responses about other areas and that the models did great for your area.  My comments are specifically talking about DMC76 and MBY areas (i.e. Oakland and Livingston Counties in MI).  I am not trying to review model performance in other areas!!!!

 

The models were wrong. It happens often.

 

It was all cold stratiform rain though, so not many people really care.

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