grinch1989 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 I'll be sure to go with a RPM/NAM combo from now on for all winter forecasting. Just let Kev write the forecast...you'll be good to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 I'll be sure to go with a RPM/NAM combo from now on for all winter forecasting. As Scooter said..the Euro/GFS had this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 I'll be sure to go with a RPM/NAM combo from now on for all winter forecasting. The NAM had like nothing on the 18z run..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Amy Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Still SN+ in Middletown CT, quarter-mile viz. Flakes are still big phatty, but less water content with a slower vertical speed. No evidence of relenting...and based on what I see on top my trash can we're looking at potentially 4 inches since it started around 7AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 As Scooter said..the Euro/GFS had this They had the arc of precip. That's different. GFS was a bit too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 As Scooter said..the Euro/GFS had this suprised more outlets didn't have it given the Euro's superiority. Interestingly, my wife said our local news channel, (News12) had it b/c she asked me if it was true last night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 32.4. Looks like we're about to bang out some sleet/snow shortly I doubt that. 29 and freezing rain/sleet in Norfolk - even there they can't get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Why do people on here have to always complain and ridicule after something happens that either wasn't forecast or doesn't happen when it was forecasted? People on here should know better that forecasting isn't an exact science. There is more to than forecasting something "just because a model showed it". While I didn't do much looking into models and haven't lately, I've been reading posts the past several days and I saw numerous posts by mets and others stating they thought there was a good likelihood of a situation like this unfolding but determining where that zone would setup exactly was absolutely nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 As Scooter said..the Euro/GFS had this All we said was that it will be haves vs have nots and that's defined by mesoscale processes that are tough to nail. I mean there was a 10 mile wide area near HFD with 2-3"+. That cannot be nailed down...but you know something like that is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 I'll be sure to go with a RPM/NAM combo from now on for all winter forecasting. RPM was nailing the band at its hour 18 for quite a few runs actually. Probably was a good hint that it would be more east based on its NW bias. Edit: meaning it had it around the CT valley or just a tad west, but it was east of the Berks/Litchfield hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 I'll be sure to go with a RPM/NAM combo from now on for all winter forecasting. I was thinking when I was walking up the stairs...thank God the RPM got something now as we are pretty much near the end as opposed to the beginning of winter...otherwise every storm we'd get if the RPM showed a major hit people would try to justify...it will be right this time b/c it nailed that one storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Absolutely NOTHING here. Ironic that those professing warmth are getting dumped upon. I want 70-75°F perhaps the most gratifying part lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Absolutely NOTHING here. Ironic that those professing warmth are getting dumped upon. I want 70-75°F lovely raw day out there with light drizzle. viva la spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 suprised more outlets didn't have it given the Euro's superiority. Interestingly, my wife said our local news channel, (News12) had it b/c she asked me if it was true last night.... Euro was too dry. Again, it comes down to mesoscale features that aren't easy to predict. Earlier yesterday it looked like NW CT and the Berks, but 12z runs shifted east a bit. That's why we started talking about this after the 12z runs because it became a little clearer..but to ridicule mets is completely unfair, especially when we said the areas getting snow are tough to nail down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 All we said was that it will be haves vs have nots and that's defined by mesoscale processes that are tough to nail. I mean there was a 10 mile wide area near HFD with 2-3"+. That cannot be nailed down...but you know something like that is possible. Its the reverse phenomenon when people complain that the norlun didn't give them 6" of snow while 20 miles north of them got plastured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Euro was too dry. Again, it comes down to mesoscale features that aren't easy to predict. Earlier yesterday it looked like NW CT and the Berks, but 12z runs shifted east a bit. That's why we started talking about this after the 12z runs because it became a little clearer..but to ridicule mets is completely unfair, especially when we said the areas getting snow are tough to nail down. I don't see anyone ridiculing mets on here. maybe on Twitter and FB I saw it today..but on here we are discussing what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Euro was too dry. Again, it comes down to mesoscale features that aren't easy to predict. Earlier yesterday it looked like NW CT and the Berks, but 12z runs shifted east a bit. That's why we started talking about this after the 12z runs because it became a little clearer..but to ridicule mets is completely unfair, especially when we said the areas getting snow are tough to nail down. Agree-tough call. Surprises like this are going to happen from time to time even with today's model's. But the general public will still gripe that it was a blown call. If you were to go out today anywhere, I'm sure you'd hear it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Why do people on here have to always complain and ridicule after something happens that either wasn't forecast or doesn't happen when it was forecasted? People on here should know better that forecasting isn't an exact science. There is more to than forecasting something "just because a model showed it". While I didn't do much looking into models and haven't lately, I've been reading posts the past several days and I saw numerous posts by mets and others stating they thought there was a good likelihood of a situation like this unfolding but determining where that zone would setup exactly was absolutely nowcasting. "science" (for the Brian and the DBM crowd to post on their AMX complaint thread.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Light snow falling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Why do people on here have to always complain and ridicule after something happens that either wasn't forecast or doesn't happen when it was forecasted? People on here should know better that forecasting isn't an exact science. There is more to than forecasting something "just because a model showed it". While I didn't do much looking into models and haven't lately, I've been reading posts the past several days and I saw numerous posts by mets and others stating they thought there was a good likelihood of a situation like this unfolding but determining where that zone would setup exactly was absolutely nowcasting.like I said yesterday all sources could have easily covered this by mentioning the chance of a heavy band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Page 5 on this thread discussed the possibilties. Lets not go too crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Its the reverse phenomenon when people complain that the norlun didn't give them 6" of snow while 20 miles north of them got plastured. It happens all the time. People on the s-shore are complaining about snow too. There was some really interesting things going on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Page 5 on this thread discussed the possibilties. Lets not go too crazy. Page 1 and 2 also discussed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Ermahgerd. A couple of inches of snow in CT at the end of March. Stop the presses. I don't think I've ever complained about road conditions. If it's snowy or icy you just go slower. Sincere condolences to the soccer mom that can't go 70mph with her 4x4 SUV through the slush in the passing lane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Why do people on here have to always complain and ridicule after something happens that either wasn't forecast or doesn't happen when it was forecasted? People on here should know better that forecasting isn't an exact science. There is more to than forecasting something "just because a model showed it". While I didn't do much looking into models and haven't lately, I've been reading posts the past several days and I saw numerous posts by mets and others stating they thought there was a good likelihood of a situation like this unfolding but determining where that zone would setup exactly was absolutely nowcasting.agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Got 1.5 inches with heavy sleet now and some zr that is actually coating the trees. Lock in the pack for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Ermahgerd. A couple of inches of snow in CT at the end of March. Stop the presses. I don't think I've ever complained about road conditions. If it's snowy or icy you just go slower. Sincere condolences to the soccer mom that can't go 70mph with her 4x4 SUV through the slush in the passing lane. Amen. That's part of my argument--granted it's rush out in congested parts of the state, but folks just don't slow down as conditions warrant even after a winter that was full of snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Page 1 and 2 also discussed it. Yep...forgot to mention that. You brought it up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Got 1.5 inches with heavy sleet now and some zr that is actually coating the trees. Lock in the pack for today That will melt this aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Got me up past 70 inches for the season. Hopefully the 5th or the 9th events work out for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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