Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Classic bowler... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 Also, take note of that impressive warm bulge into the Lakes, while eastern NY is probably getting parachutes on the chart above. This is only 72 hours on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 Re the flood potential... Basin numbers are up there due to recent arid weeks, however, there are a couple of extenuating aspects with this. One, I don't think the ground will be entirely thawed during the first half of this event (SNE), also, there is a lot of ice on area streams/rivers. The combination of higher than normal run-off combined with ice break ups might be enhancers for flood threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Yeah I suspect we are in good shape here. The Euro doesn't show much accumulation, but I am not necessarily buying that with the dynamics at play with a vigorous ULL. Also in the CPV we could be in good shape with the northerly component to the winds. Either way the ski areas look to get a nice late season hit. A book end winter in the North Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 Yeah I suspect we are in good shape here. The Euro doesn't show much accumulation, but I am not necessarily buying that with the dynamics at play with a vigorous ULL. Also in the CPV we could be in good shape with the northerly component to the winds. Either way the ski areas look to get a nice late season hit. A book end winter in the North Country. 2,000 ft and up a good solid high water content delivery .. maybe down to 1500... As the thing winds down, if the NAM's crack-pipe cold somehow gets drawn, then the column collapse even here, but the majority of lift is by the boards and it's probably just junk minutes at the end of the game. But again, folks' need to keep in mind that cut-offs have a certain increased uncertainty about them, too. That said, I think pretty confidently that Powder' is in for a paste, while we here get a typical cold April soaking out of the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 2,000 ft and up a good solid high water content delivery .. maybe down to 1500... As the thing winds down, if the NAM's crack-pipe cold somehow gets drawn, then the column collapse even here, but the majority of lift is by the boards and it's probably just junk minutes at the end of the game. But again, folks' need to keep in mind that cut-offs have a certain increased uncertainty about them, too. That said, I think pretty confidently that Powder' is in for a paste, while we here get a typical cold April soaking out of the deal. Where's "here"? Sorry I can't keep track of who lives where... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Re the flood potential... Basin numbers are up there due to recent arid weeks, however, there are a couple of extenuating aspects with this. One, I don't think the ground will be entirely thawed during the first half of this event (SNE), also, there is a lot of ice on area streams/rivers. The combination of higher than normal run-off combined with ice break ups might be enhancers for flood threat. Only speaking for my neighborhood, my sump pump had been running pretty consistently as the snow melted and thaw came through. Ground is not wet/spongy any longer, and after Wednesdays blow dry event it is cracking as top layers are dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Not overly concerned with any water issues here. Snow melted very slowly and had been gone for a couple weeks now. Should be a soaking, but its not on top of 15" of snow pack or soggy ground. Going to be nastt out, thata for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Big concern up here FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME329 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014...HEAVY RAIN, SNOW MELT, AND ICE JAMS MAY CREATE FLOODING LATESATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY....SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE AND A HALF TO THREE INCHES OFRAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. URBAN AND POORDRAINAGE AREAS WILL SEE MINOR FLOODING. INADDITION...RUNOFF...SOME SNOWMELT...AND POSSIBLY ICE JAMS MAYCAUSE MAINLY MINOR FLOODING ON SOME AREA RIVERS.MEZ012-018>028-NHZ004>010-013-014-290800-/O.NEW.KGYX.FA.A.0002.140330T0400Z-140331T1800Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/SOUTHERN OXFORD-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUMFORD...NORWAY...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...SANFORD...BERWICK...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS...AUGUSTA...WATERVILLE...WINTERPORT...UNITY...BIDDEFORD...SACO...OLD ORCHARD BEACH...KITTERY...PORTLAND...SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK...BATH...TOPSHAM...BOOTHBAY HARBOR...WISCASSET...WALDOBORO...CAMDEN...ROCKLAND...THOMASTON...BELFAST...LINCOLNVILLE...NORTH CONWAY...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO...OSSIPEE...CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...CHARLESTOWN...CONCORD...HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH...ROCHESTER...DOVER...SALEM...DERRY...EXETER...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON329 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAYAFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN WESTERN MAINE... ANDROSCOGGIN...COASTAL CUMBERLAND...COASTAL WALDO...COASTAL YORK...INTERIOR CUMBERLAND...INTERIOR WALDO...INTERIOR YORK... KENNEBEC...KNOX...LINCOLN...SAGADAHOC AND SOUTHERN OXFORD. IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...BELKNAP...COASTAL ROCKINGHAM...INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM...MERRIMACK...NORTHERN CARROLL...SOUTHERN CARROLL... SOUTHERN GRAFTON...STRAFFORD AND SULLIVAN.* FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON* RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT MAY CAUSE FLOODING ON RIVERS...SMALL CREEKS...AND URBAN AREAS. ICE MAY BEGIN MOVING ON SOME RIVERS ALSO...SO ICE JAMS MAY ALSO PRESENT A FLOOD THREAT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLEFLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEPREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 2,000 ft and up a good solid high water content delivery .. maybe down to 1500... As the thing winds down, if the NAM's crack-pipe cold somehow gets drawn, then the column collapse even here, but the majority of lift is by the boards and it's probably just junk minutes at the end of the game. But again, folks' need to keep in mind that cut-offs have a certain increased uncertainty about them, too. That said, I think pretty confidently that Powder' is in for a paste, while we here get a typical cold April soaking out of the deal. Yeah powder is definitely in for a paste job. I will try to get out to Bolton and get one more day out of the advance pass I bought if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Yeah powder is definitely in for a paste job. I will try to get out to Bolton and get one more day out of the advance pass I bought if it pans out. Not convinced... but the 18z NAM is something special, lol. BTV tossed it right out of the gate. ANOTHER EXTREMELY CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FCST PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION AND VERY COMPLICATED THERMAL PROFILES. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND FOR THERMAL PROFILES AND ASSOCIATED TRACK OF SFC AND ULVL FEATURES. NAM CONTS TO BE A COOL OUTLIER AND WOULD SUPPORT A MAJOR HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACRS MOST OF NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. The 18z NAM actually looks very similar to the March 6-7, 2011 event up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 Not convinced... but the 18z NAM is something special, lol. BTV tossed it right out of the gate. ANOTHER EXTREMELY CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FCST PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION AND VERY COMPLICATED THERMAL PROFILES. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND FOR THERMAL PROFILES AND ASSOCIATED TRACK OF SFC AND ULVL FEATURES. NAM CONTS TO BE A COOL OUTLIER AND WOULD SUPPORT A MAJOR HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACRS MOST OF NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. The 18z NAM actually looks very similar to the March 6-7, 2011 event up here. NAM.jpg I don't think it's too far flung, though... Spring has sprung in the S..or is trying to. Check out these DP over 60F, over a huuuuge area of the contiguous US.... This trough is amplified right along that interface axis of where the tired winter vestige kisses that mass of higher DP/relatively theta -e rich air. it's going to get ingested into the circulation of this thing, and when it does, you get comparatively prolific output from a system that's really only light to midland in intensity. I could see the WCB going over top and producing a TROWAL of sorts up near your neck of the woods ... actually, you might even be at the terminus of it's NW penetration (she said...) Anyway, spring blue bombs are big QPFers because they often have more moisture, compared to mechanically superior systems in deep cold air. There's enough consensus among the verious models for a cold evolving NW quadrant that I feel pretty confident that your getting another seasonal make-up there. We'll see... Could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Tip any thoughts on the setup showing up on the EURO for April 7-9th, especially today's OP with a +1035HP in classic position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Not convinced... but the 18z NAM is something special, lol. BTV tossed it right out of the gate. ANOTHER EXTREMELY CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FCST PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION AND VERY COMPLICATED THERMAL PROFILES. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND FOR THERMAL PROFILES AND ASSOCIATED TRACK OF SFC AND ULVL FEATURES. NAM CONTS TO BE A COOL OUTLIER AND WOULD SUPPORT A MAJOR HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACRS MOST OF NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. The 18z NAM actually looks very similar to the March 6-7, 2011 event up here. NAM.jpg I am rooting for the NAM even though it is the odd man out LOL. For a minute I read cool outlier differently than what they intended since there are skiers and riders on their staff . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Looks like GFS is playing catch up, Looks colder aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Looks like GFS is playing catch up, Looks colder aloft Yeah definitely a tick colder up here aloft. Good trend. That low tracks WAAAYYY south though. Amazing that the airmass is so poor that a low can track from south of NYC to out near the Benchmark and still rain way up into CNE/NNE, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Yeah definitely a tick colder up here aloft. Good trend. That low tracks WAAAYYY south though. Amazing that the airmass is so poor that a low can track from south of NYC to out near the Benchmark and still rain way up into CNE/NNE, lol. Yeah, It is better aloft, But as whole it still sucks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Road trip to Ashland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The hires Euro is an absolute soaker early tomorrow morning. Looks like nearly 4" of QPF near MMK. Seems like it's trying to develop some boundary layer convergence just northwest of the low path over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The hires Euro is an absolute soaker early tomorrow morning. Looks like nearly 4" of QPF near MMK. Seems like it's trying to develop some boundary layer convergence just northwest of the low path over SNE. He's bagging and ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 He's bagging and ready I'm hoping for a nice thunderstorm around dawn Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I'm hoping for a nice thunderstorm around dawn Sunday! Funny you said that...we were just talking internally about maybe some elevated stuff near the CT coastline. Definitely that low level convergence feature too enhancing the rain. SW RI is ready to go!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I'm hoping for a nice thunderstorm around dawn Sunday! Is there a decent shot at a few storms tomorrow morn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 NAM is unstable aloft early tomorrow morning down in SW CT. What a deluge too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Thats a cold depiction up here at the surface, I have a hard time believing ZR this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Thats a cold depiction up here at the surface, I have a hard time believing ZR this time of year NAM may be a little too cold...but gotta imagine the hills around 1k could grab some. That's a good high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 NAM may be a little too cold...but gotta imagine the hills around 1k could grab some. That's a good high to the north. Definitely possible up in elevation, Down this way, I think it ends up more of just a cold rain, Major flood concerns look minimal with it being as cold so the pack should be able to handle most of this with just some minor ponding on the roadways and some smaller streams leaving their banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Definitely possible up in elevation, Down this way, I think it ends up more of just a cold rain, Major flood concerns look minimal with it being as cold so the pack should be able to handle most of this with just some minor ponding on the roadways and some smaller streams leaving their banksI'm not sure my pack can take anymore water. It will probably just run off or seep through to the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I'm not sure my pack can take anymore water. It will probably just run off or seep through to the grass. NW of here certainly can handle it, It's 5' in some areas Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I'm not sure my pack can take anymore water. It will probably just run off or seep through to the grass. How much do you have left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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