Ji Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 wants to give the western/far western suburbs 3-10 inches of snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 God Love WeatherBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Ahh the fake GFS bullseye is back. Our early season friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I could be wrong but a 12mb difference between lp and hp might be an issue in manufacturing cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 The worm has turned. It's spring now. I can feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 God Love WeatherBell Ha. Right over my house. That could never happen. Not in a million years. But I'd be super happy if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I hope Ryan Maue is getting filthy rich...and I am sure he is...someone should be benefiting from duping the masses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I didn't know how much I missed JI's 6Z GFS threads until I saw this one.....ahhh, the memories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Maybe we should start a new thread for how weatherbell engages in deceptive practices to make money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Maybe we should start a new thread for how weatherbell engages in deceptive practices to make money and LWX is in cahoots with them....check out the obs lol http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 and LWX is in cahoots with them....check out the obs lol http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/ Lol, it is just dumping here right now. I am worried though i will go above freezing soon and the sun angle will wipe it all away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 and LWX is in cahoots with them....check out the obs lol http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/ LWX is a mistake obviously, obs from the other day.....weatherbell is a purposeful attempt to make money knowing their algorithms are deceptive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 LWX is a mistake obviously, obs from the other day.....weatherbell is a purposeful attempt to make money knowing their algorithms are deceptive no, I know re LWX I almost "soiled" myself when I saw it and wasn't expecting it as for wxbell, I'm sure they'll just hide behind some discrete warning on their site that p-type is not always accurately depicted on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 LWX is a mistake obviously, obs from the other day.....weatherbell is a purposeful attempt to make money knowing their algorithms are deceptive I'm not sure the deception is intentional. It could be. IMO- it's simpleton math. I would expect them to fix it for next year. Even if they don't take all variables into consideration they should at least get the precip type correct through the 6 hour panel. It's pretty stupid when it's -.2 at hr 1 and +300 at hr 6 and it's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 63 hours, which is when DC would have to be getting its snow, it is 45 degrees (raw temps) and the entire column is below freezing from 750mb to the surface..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 LWX is a mistake obviously, obs from the other day.....weatherbell is a purposeful attempt to make money knowing their algorithms are deceptive I'm amazed at how many people buy their services that don't actually need it and/or don't forecast professionally. It's really something. Snow accumulation maps, wxbell aside, have always been useless. Not too long ago, you were either ridiculed, made fun of and/or bashed if you posted them (outside of having a good laugh). I never thought I would see the day when they became acceptable with no repercussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I'm not sure the deception is intentional. It could be. IMO- it's simpleton math. I would expect them to fix it for next year. Even if they don't take all variables into consideration they should at least get the precip type correct through the 6 hour panel. It's pretty stupid when it's -.2 at hr 1 and +300 at hr 6 and it's all snow. I wouldn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I'm amazed at how many people buy their services that don't actually need it and/or don't forecast professionally. It's really something. Snow accumulation maps, wxbell aside, have always been useless. Not too long ago, you were either ridiculed, made fun of and/or bashed if you posted them (outside of having a good laugh). I never thought I would see the day when they became acceptable with no repercussions. most of us know they are useless, but they get posted anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I'm amazed at how many people buy their services that don't actually need it and/or don't forecast professionally. It's really something. Snow accumulation maps, wxbell aside, have always been useless. Not too long ago, you were either ridiculed, made fun of and/or bashed if you posted them (outside of having a good laugh). I never thought I would see the day when they became acceptable with no repercussions. I don't mind them for 1 specific reason. They show exact precip totals to the 100th spread throughout the area. That's what I use them for. QPF maps are more broad brushed with contours and numerical stamps. I also don't mind them for entertainment. It's prolific moronic social media posting that bugs the crap out of me. They have no place in the general public's eyes. It's become an total embarrassment. It's been really bad this year when posters KNOW they completely flawed but pimp them like a street hooker for attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 most of us know they are useless, but they get posted anyway A lot of you guys do it as a joke, which I suppose is okay from time-to-time. But that still ends up as free advertising, and the less-knowledgeable I guess could be the casualties here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I don't mind them for 1 specific reason. They show exact precip totals to the 100th spread throughout the area. That's what I use them for. QPF maps are more broad brushed with contours and numerical stamps. I also don't mind them for entertainment. It's prolific moronic social media posting that bugs the crap out of me. They have no place in the general public's eyes. It's become an total embarrassment. It's been really bad this year when posters KNOW they completely flawed but pimp them like a street hooker for attention. Good post, sounds about right overall. A lot of you guys are also forecasters that need detailed information, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Good post, sounds about right overall. A lot of you guys are also forecasters that need detailed information, too. One of my favorite exercises with Matt and co is discussing inter panel details when it's not clear how much of what type falls or sticks during a period. Basically it's fun debunking snow maps with a slightly complex mental exercise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 most of us know they are useless, but they get posted anyway I love posting snow maps. I hope the 12z GGEM gives us 50" again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 One of my favorite exercises with Matt and co is discussing inter panel details when it's not clear how much of what type falls or sticks during a period. Basically it's fun debunking snow maps with a slightly complex mental exercise. March 3rd comes to mind. Trying to figure out the changeover etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Maybe we should start a new thread for how weatherbell engages in deceptive practices to make money Colors attract the masses. Yellow, orange, red, pink, purple. They have done their research. People like color and they jump on it then it goes viral whether wrong or right. It's deceptive. Best to hold those colors for extreme events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Problem with snow maps now is they are much more detailed and pretty. In the past they looked like atari graphics in general or were too tiny to say much other than there's a blob over such and such zone. They are used all the time in major articles as well as the proliferation on social media. Partly because if you have the option of showing what a model is printing out in liquid v snow and you expect snow... you're going to run to snow, because the other will require explanation etc. Most come with disclaimers in that fashion but I think a growing number of forecasters are relying on them even with caveats more than they used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Colors attract the masses. Yellow, orange, red, pink, purple. They have done their research. People like color and they jump on it then it goes viral whether wrong or right. It's deceptive. Best to hold those colors for extreme events. meh, they are doing nothing wrong. We can't fault every contributor of filth when consumers feed off hype, colors and warnings. This is a small example of a much larger issue --stupid people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Problem with snow maps now is they are much more detailed and pretty. In the past they looked like atari graphics in general or were too tiny to say much other than there's a blob over such and such zone. They are used all the time in major articles as well as the proliferation on social media. Partly because if you have the option of showing what a model is printing out in liquid v snow and you expect snow... you're going to run to snow, because the other will require explanation etc. Most come with disclaimers in that fashion but I think a growing number of forecasters are relying on them even with caveats more than they used to. I say keep 'em pretty but change the algorithm to make them more accurate...Though I doubt that will happen..these guys are mets...they know exactly what they are doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 meh, they are doing nothing wrong. We can't fault every contributor of filth when consumers feed off hype, colors and warnings. This is a small example of a much larger issue --stupid people. Good point. What tends to happen is the public gets a hold of these products a week out and expect 20" of snow then the event comes and they get 3". They didn't look into the facts or follow the forecast then they turn around and complain that we can't forecast out way out of a paper bag or that we get paid alot of money to be wrong all the time. I hate to even tell people what I do for a living unless they are involved with the emergency management community, a fellow fed or a media person or aviation customer. Part of it is laziness. I have friends and family sprawled throughout the NYC metro area that I have told for 15 years where to go for information yet when something could happen they all start texting and contacting on social media that these maps are flying around and they want my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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