Ground Scouring Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The 12z GFS just kicked up the threat to another level tomorrow. Instead of major early initiation/widespread warm sector convection (some of which would likely still be tornadic), it holds off the vast majority of initiation until 21z or later, with much lower QPF values indicative of far more discrete convection. This is in line with the OP NAM and the 4-km NAM run, the latter of which has a potent supercell signal by 00z across AR and LA. I think MO will have a decent tornado threat, but unidirectional profiles up there may favor a linear mode with widespread wind damage and QLCS tornadoes for the most part. If the GFS and NAM trends continue, though, I'd almost expect a high risk eventually from far srn MO through much of AR and into N LA. Although early convection (anvils) no longer seems to be a problem for significant severe event, a big question is how pronounced any secondary mesolow will evolve over northeastern OK tomorrow afternoon. The GFS and the NAM have trended somewhat away from that scenario a bit and have gradually moved the surface low farther north at 00Z 04 April. With more low-level veering the significant tornado threat might be lower in most of central AR, where the largest extent of high instability / MUCAPE will be. In other words, significant tornadoes would occur in a smaller area of the warm sector, up toward south-central MO and north-central AR. Still, shear is more than sufficient for supercellular modes, and there is still a hint of a secondary low on the GFS. Is there a possibility that the models sampling overnight could trend back toward the secondary-low scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Nice batch of cirrus rolling overhead. If it's going to happen, it's very soon. If not, may have to wait for the LLJ to kick in for another chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 From Tim Marshall. I think that might be the cell near Caldwell Ks? If that photo is the wind farm in Hunter OK then he is looking at the first real cell of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 As always with playing the warm front, while CI chances may be higher. The chances of them turning into elevated showers north of the front is also high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 We started to head towards the cell moving into KS, but have just dropped off of it. Headed back west towards the better looking TCU on/near the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 I think that might be the cell near Caldwell Ks? If that photo is the wind farm in Hunter OK then he is looking at the first real cell of the day.It is...Looks terrible now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 It is... Looks terrible now though. Yeah gone down to almost nothing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Although early convection (anvils) no longer seems to be a problem for significant severe event, a big question is how pronounced any secondary mesolow will evolve over northeastern OK tomorrow afternoon. The GFS and the NAM have trended somewhat away from that scenario a bit and have gradually moved the surface low farther north at 00Z 04 April. With more low-level veering the significant tornado threat might be lower in most of central AR, where the largest extent of high instability / MUCAPE will be. In other words, significant tornadoes would occur in a smaller area of the warm sector, up toward south-central MO and north-central AR. Still, shear is more than sufficient for supercellular modes, and there is still a hint of a secondary low on the GFS. Is there a possibility that the models sampling overnight could trend back toward the secondary-low scenario? What? The wind profiles are fine. Near Mena at 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 It is... Looks terrible now though. Good thing you hopped off of it. Looks pathetic on TICH. Probably gonna have to play the boundary and see if anything else can go up. Using GS4 Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Attempt at initiation in Dewey County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 New attempt near Cherokee, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Just north of Byron OK up to 34kft now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Supercells firing west of Chanute, KS. VIL values would indicate a large hail threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Warm front bulge looks better. Cap was significantly weaker towards SGF. I'm heading down 44 towards SGF as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN AND SERN KS/PART OF FAR SWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 46... VALID 022300Z - 030000Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 46 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED OVER FAR SERN KS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WSWWD ALONG A NWD MOVING WARM FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS...WHILE A TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE NRN EXTENT OF WW 46...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR INCLUSION INTO THIS WATCH. FARTHER ENE IN EAST CENTRAL KS...IF THE BOUNDARY ADVANCES A LITTLE FARTHER NWD...THEN A NEW WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NWD THROUGH FAR NORTH CENTRAL OK /NEAR THE KS BORDER/...WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD INTO FAR SERN KS /NOW JUST N OF KCNU/. VANCE OK WSR-88D WIND PROFILER INDICATED STRENGTHENING...VERTICALLY VEERING LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/ IS PRESENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-65 KT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO THE ENE TENDING TO KEEP STORMS WITHIN WW 46. HOWEVER...IF THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL KS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR ADDING TO WW 46 AND/OR NEW WW ISSUANCE. ..PETERS.. 04/02/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Supercells firing west of Chanute, KS. VIL values would indicate a large hail threat. Elevated, I don't see them doing much tornadic wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Elevated, I don't see them doing much tornadic wise. Chanute is S of the warm front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 On a developing cell near Burlington, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Chanute is S of the warm front... I take that back, thanks man, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Staying I this storm near Hazelton, KS. It's north of the boundary, but it's the only game in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Well, that is ugly, but if its the only storm, I guess it's something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 So far, the best circulation I've seen to this point is on the Mississippi River crossing into Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Actually some new storms firing in northern Osage county south of the WF. Lets see what they can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 That big hailer to the east of Yates Center is trying. Non-NWS Report -- from Logan Burress (via spotternetwork.org) @ 12:10 AM UTC -- (S) Rotating Wall Cloud -- -- Spotter is 2 miles SE of HUMBOLDT, KS ( county) [37.791/-95.411] -- Rapidly rotating wall cloud a few miles to my NW. Clear slot cutting around on right edge of core (SN#16311) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Storms crossing the KS/OK border west of Coffeyville look promising right now, have that classic elongated look that developing super cells get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 2 miles north of Humboldt, KS from Eric B'Hymer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 ICT using build 14 I see (SAILS). Far E Central KS cell doing well in the mid-levels it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 ICT using build 14 I see (SAILS). Far E Central KS cell doing well in the mid-levels it appears. I got to say I'm very impressed with SAILS on GRLevel3. Got to agree with you that the cell you're pointing at is doing pretty well so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I got to say I'm very impressed with SAILS on GRLevel3. Got to agree with you that the cell you're pointing at is doing pretty well so far. Just in the past 15 min, it's becomes less of a supercell and more of a speed sheered cell at it gets N of the front. Everything else is in temps with low 70's and dews in the low 60's. I think we're running out of time for one of these to drop a tor. Another hour at most before the show is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Nice wall cloud in that photo....first one I've seen this year. Tonight's gonna be elevated hailers...the real action will come farther east tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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