JoMo Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Same model (4km NAM) keeps most of the storms along or north of the warm front though. It has hardly been consistent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Same model (4km NAM) keeps most of the storms along or north of the warm front though. It has hardly been consistent though. It also blew chunks with today's initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Starting to see some things that may me believe tomorrow may surprise us. Earlier today I had discounted the tornado threat and believed it was primarily just a hail threat. But now the tornado threat seems to be kicking up just a bit. Helicity values are high, shear is reasonable, soundings are looking fairly impressive. Not sold on the NAM yet, I think the GFS has a better handle.If moisture return is ample and the system is a bit stronger than anticipated we could see the threat amplify a bit. Thursday could be interesting for the Tulsa metro, especially if the dryline winds up a bit west of current model predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The GFS is bad news, scattered discrete convection up and down the dry line by 0z. Even further west this run. Really deepens the sfc low in the afternoon. 65 dews along dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The GFS is bad news, scattered discrete convection up and down the dry line by 0z. Even further west this run. Really deepens the sfc low in the afternoon. 65 dews along dryline. Yeah, for as scary as the NAM is, the GFS is even scarier. Just as much instability and the winds are more backed at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2014 Author Share Posted April 2, 2014 Aside from the string of pearls on the dryline tomorrow, the GFS looks really volatile in MO on Thursday, and I mean across the whole state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Yeah, for as scary as the NAM is, the GFS is even scarier. Just as much instability and the winds are more backed at the sfc. I'd argue that the GFS even might be a touch low on the instability especially in coverage, which isn't surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Yeah, for as scary as the NAM is, the GFS is even scarier. Just as much instability and the winds are more backed at the sfc. Yep. And I can name a bunch of events when the GFS did better with CI over the NAM the night before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 I'm new here and just follow you all to stay informed and learn but why is everyone's post time way off? Also, I live in NW OKC/Edmond...tomorrow looking bad bad or just stay aware? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 I'm new here and just follow you all to stay informed and learn but why is everyone's post time way off? Also, I live in NW OKC/Edmond...tomorrow looking bad bad or just stay aware? Check your settings to make sure your time zone is set correctly. Just click on your username on the top of the page and go to My Settings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Check your settings to make sure your time zone is set correctly. Just click on your username on the top of the page and go to My Settings.[/quot Thanks. That's what it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 00Z NSSL WRF absolutely nailed timing and location of CI today in TX. The new 00Z run is coming in, so I am curious to see what it has. Tomorrow definitely has some ugly potential as does Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2014 Author Share Posted April 2, 2014 00Z NSSL WRF absolutely nailed timing and location of CI today in TX. The new 00Z run is coming in, so I am curious to see what it has. Tomorrow definitely has some ugly potential as does Thursday. It also completely nailed 5/19 last year (Carney/Shawnee) down to the actual location of the storms. Another thing, correct me if I'm wrong but the convergence and ascent today wasn't as strong as it is forecast to be tomorrow, and we did get CI (especially the convergence along the dryline with strongly backing surface winds forecast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Surprise surprise, a huge day 2 moderate for AR/N LA/S MO/W TN/S IL/W KY/N MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2014 Author Share Posted April 2, 2014 Surprise surprise, a huge day 2 moderate for AR/N LA/S MO/W TN/S IL/W KY/N MS. Check out the size of the 30% hatched encompassing it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderhall Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Check out the size of the 30% hatched encompassing it... http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/day2.prob.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2014 Author Share Posted April 2, 2014 Still certainly a supercell dominant storm mode on the Euro for Thursday, all the way from Northern MO south into E TX/LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderhall Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Still certainly a supercell dominant storm mode on the Euro for Thursday, all the way from Northern MO south into E TX/LA. FWIW, WRF holds cap in OK tomorrow, then pops supercells in N. TX at 00z http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/OUN/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2014 Author Share Posted April 2, 2014 FWIW, WRF holds cap in OK tomorrow, then pops supercells in N. TX at 00z http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/OUN/ I believe this is the run prior for today (Tuesday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderhall Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 I believe this is the run prior for today (Tuesday). Ah - yes, you are correct. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 I believe this is the run prior for today (Tuesday). By 01z there is initiation in North Texas and then it looks like north of I-40 in Oklahoma, but not much else on the NSSL WRF. Edit: Besides the one cell it shows in North Texas, the dryline looks rather quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The 00z NSSL WRF is currently out to 28 hours which is 04z. Not much happening through that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderhall Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 I believe this is the run prior for today (Tuesday). The 00z NSSL WRF is currently out to 03z which is 27 hours. Not much happening through that hour. Yes - doesn't look all that different from my previous post. Valid 00z 03 April this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 None of the high-res models I've seen (NCEP'S NMM and ARW, EMC WRF, NSSL WRF, 4-km NAM) pop the dryline tomorrow. However, the GFS, 12-km NAM, and Euro all do. This is the reverse of what I'm used to and, honestly, I'm at a bit of a loss as to explain why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2014 Author Share Posted April 2, 2014 This forecast for tomorrow is the devil for anyone in the OKC area, given how high the potential is if storms do fire and the inconsistencies with the models. It's kind of frightening knowing that this could be a nowcast event where significant tornadoes might not have a whole lot of preparation time in advance, considering that appears very likely if the dryline does light up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 None of the high-res models I've seen (NCEP'S NMM and ARW, EMC WRF, NSSL WRF, 4-km NAM) pop the dryline tomorrow. However, the GFS, 12-km NAM, and Euro all do. This is the reverse of what I'm used to and, honestly, I'm at a bit of a loss as to explain why. Any ideas at all? You're usually pretty damn spot on so I'd be very interested if you had any thoughts on that. The hi-res models seem to have been performing rather well in recent times so I would think some weight has to be given to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 None of the high-res models I've seen (NCEP'S NMM and ARW, EMC WRF, NSSL WRF, 4-km NAM) pop the dryline tomorrow. However, the GFS, 12-km NAM, and Euro all do. This is the reverse of what I'm used to and, honestly, I'm at a bit of a loss as to explain why. Agreed. Very reminiscent of 4/14/12 in terms of an extremely volatile environment and negligible CINH by late afternoon, but many models showing no CI. However, that was a much more potent trough than this one. It's anybody's guess until noon tomorrow. One of the oddest setups I can remember in OK in terms of such high potential, but so little confidence in initiation. The 5% tor probs seem like an appropriate compromise between the significant likelihood of a cap bust and the 10-15% hatched that would be warranted if we knew sustained convection would evolve. EDIT: I see the 00z ECMWF isn't screwing around with weak or short-lived convective signals... explosive development at the triple point that goes bonkers between 21z-03z. Tornado potential would be high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Agreed. Very reminiscent of 4/14/12 in terms of an extremely volatile environment and negligible CINH by late afternoon, but many models showing no CI. However, that was a much more potent trough than this one. It's anybody's guess until noon tomorrow. One of the oddest setups I can remember in OK in terms of such high potential, but so little confidence in initiation. The 5% tor probs seem like an appropriate compromise between the significant likelihood of a cap bust and the 10-15% hatched that would be warranted if we knew sustained convection would evolve. EDIT: I see the 00z ECMWF isn't screwing around... explosive development at the triple point that goes bonkers between 21z-03z. Tornado potential would be high. I don't see any good reason why there shouldn't be isolated initiation by late afternoon/early evening before the dryline begins retreating again. CINH should be minimal, OK won't be under any large or small-scale ridge axis, and there should be plenty of convergence along the dryline while it progresses E, especially near the triple point. It may only be one supercell, but I just don't know why nothing should form tomorrow. I see no distinct reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 None of the high-res models I've seen (NCEP'S NMM and ARW, EMC WRF, NSSL WRF, 4-km NAM) pop the dryline tomorrow. However, the GFS, 12-km NAM, and Euro all do. This is the reverse of what I'm used to and, honestly, I'm at a bit of a loss as to explain why. As does the 10 km Canadian RDPS. And I agree, very rare where you see the convective allowing models and parameterized guidance in completely different camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderhall Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 As does the 10 km Canadian RDPS. And I agree, very rare where you see the convective allowing models and parameterized guidance in completely different camps. Just an observation, on that 05z RAP, (valid at 23z Wed) when you get east of I-35, you get an area between 850-700mb w/ pretty uniform temperature. This doesn't translate to a ton of -CINH, if you're looking at that map. But if you get a little closer to the dry line, you get something more like this, which is a nicer ride for our theoretical parcel friend... Is there enough speed shear to sustain an updraft, or will the updrafts in that environment be strong enough to sustain themselves, if they can get going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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