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April 1st-4th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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The cell NW of Abilene, I didn't expect that.  I thought the apparent frontal/dryline junction North of SPS into Oklahoma would be the initiation point.

 

 

Maybe when whatever subtle feature triggered that reaches the more obvious low level features...

 

HRRR called it... surprisingly.

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Alright, judging by most of today's guidance, it appears that tomorrow does have some more widespread potential, at least going off the consistent Euro and also some of the NAM-associated runs. If we do see storms fire, especially further west into OK, but also along the WF in MO/etc, they likely will have the potential for the full gambit of severe weather modes given likely adequate deep layer and low level shear, strong instability and increasingly deep low level moisture.

 

Thursday is obviously the day with the greatest potential for a widespread, significant severe weather event. There isn't a ton really detracting from it, the dry air in the mid levels moving into the Ozarks in the morning should help reduce any leftover convection from Wednesday from west to east. Another caveat is the potential for a VBV profile to develop in AR later on, which the GFS has shown more strongly, but has also been weaker in more recent runs. The NAM has been more subtle (albeit still out of its more favorable range) and Euro basically doesn't have it at all and hasn't consistently. It's of note that the wind profile on the GFS is generally clean in MO through the whole event, where storms look to traverse the southern half of the state. The amount of instability across a very wide axis on Thursday (cold mid level temperatures, large expanse of 60˚F+ dewpoints and also deep moisture profiles to the 850 mb level) has been discussed ad nauseum and still looks impressive anyway you slice it. In addition, the forcing and deep layer shear magnitude for supercells is favorable along the entire boundary, and the low level shear will certainly become stronger as the LLJ intensifies into the evening. The entire boundary and out ahead could essentially unzip from MO southward to E TX. This all makes for the potential of a widespread severe event being quite high and it seems likely a D2 moderate will be included tonight assuming most things hold. In addition, what is really getting my attention is how the LLJ noses in and strengthens to over 50 kts post-00z into the Mid South. Areas like PAH, MEG and JAN's CWAs could see quite the problem transpire during this time as a tornadic QLCS looks to be the minimum issue that could develop. Other scenarios are a mix of supercells and the QLCS or even just straight supercells, which would certainly have the potential for strong tornadoes given CAPE still likely in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and 0-1 km shear increasing in excess of 35 kts.

I think the problem is going to extend farther E than JAN.  We're going to have 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE even at 12z Friday morning, shear vectors are nearly perpendicular to the convective bands, and QPF output is not very linear looking.  WFO HUN is mentioning supercells predawn into the morning hours Friday, and I can't honestly blame them.

 

This thread should go into the main forum.

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I think the problem is going to extend farther E than JAN.  We're going to have 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE even at 12z Friday morning, shear vectors are nearly perpendicular to the convective bands, and QPF output is not very linear looking.  WFO HUN is mentioning supercells predawn into the morning hours Friday, and I can't honestly blame them.

 

This thread should go into the main forum.

 

Yeah I saw that earlier as well. And of course MEG and LZK are barely mentioning it.

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I think the problem is going to extend farther E than JAN.  We're going to have 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE even at 12z Friday morning, shear vectors are nearly perpendicular to the convective bands, and QPF output is not very linear looking.  WFO HUN is mentioning supercells predawn into the morning hours Friday, and I can't honestly blame them.

 

This thread should go into the main forum.

I agree on both points.

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Tornado warning for it.

Edit: some seriously large hail also likely with it, VIL is maxed out with >70 dbz returns.

Warning from SJT only says golf ball sized hail... Seems like it would be producing a lot larger hail than that, or it's just dropping buckets of golfballs.

EDIT: Now showing tennis ball sized hail...

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Ended up sitting just east of Waurika, OK for a while this afternoon. Ended up with a bunch of TCU that didn't do a thing.

Decided not to head south towards the TX warned storm, as we would just be making it down there now...after sunset. Given the way it's starting to look, it was probably a good decision not to go.

Back to Norman for the night...Then somewhere in KS/OK tomorrow.

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Gotta wonder if we get CI tomorrow along the dryline..not sold on it.

 

There may be just enough of a cap to prevent initiation. However, there is some indication that a hydrostatic "heat low" will form tomorrow in SW OK/ southern TX panhandle as a result of the 90+ degree temperatures in that region. That could increase low-level backing (greater SRH) and convergence (possibly greater lift).

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