wxmeddler Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 The cell NW of Abilene, I didn't expect that. I thought the apparent frontal/dryline junction North of SPS into Oklahoma would be the initiation point. Maybe when whatever subtle feature triggered that reaches the more obvious low level features... HRRR called it... surprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Nice to see the FDR 88D has already implemented SAILS, so we're getting twice as many low-level scans as before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Alright, judging by most of today's guidance, it appears that tomorrow does have some more widespread potential, at least going off the consistent Euro and also some of the NAM-associated runs. If we do see storms fire, especially further west into OK, but also along the WF in MO/etc, they likely will have the potential for the full gambit of severe weather modes given likely adequate deep layer and low level shear, strong instability and increasingly deep low level moisture. Thursday is obviously the day with the greatest potential for a widespread, significant severe weather event. There isn't a ton really detracting from it, the dry air in the mid levels moving into the Ozarks in the morning should help reduce any leftover convection from Wednesday from west to east. Another caveat is the potential for a VBV profile to develop in AR later on, which the GFS has shown more strongly, but has also been weaker in more recent runs. The NAM has been more subtle (albeit still out of its more favorable range) and Euro basically doesn't have it at all and hasn't consistently. It's of note that the wind profile on the GFS is generally clean in MO through the whole event, where storms look to traverse the southern half of the state. The amount of instability across a very wide axis on Thursday (cold mid level temperatures, large expanse of 60˚F+ dewpoints and also deep moisture profiles to the 850 mb level) has been discussed ad nauseum and still looks impressive anyway you slice it. In addition, the forcing and deep layer shear magnitude for supercells is favorable along the entire boundary, and the low level shear will certainly become stronger as the LLJ intensifies into the evening. The entire boundary and out ahead could essentially unzip from MO southward to E TX. This all makes for the potential of a widespread severe event being quite high and it seems likely a D2 moderate will be included tonight assuming most things hold. In addition, what is really getting my attention is how the LLJ noses in and strengthens to over 50 kts post-00z into the Mid South. Areas like PAH, MEG and JAN's CWAs could see quite the problem transpire during this time as a tornadic QLCS looks to be the minimum issue that could develop. Other scenarios are a mix of supercells and the QLCS or even just straight supercells, which would certainly have the potential for strong tornadoes given CAPE still likely in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and 0-1 km shear increasing in excess of 35 kts. I think the problem is going to extend farther E than JAN. We're going to have 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE even at 12z Friday morning, shear vectors are nearly perpendicular to the convective bands, and QPF output is not very linear looking. WFO HUN is mentioning supercells predawn into the morning hours Friday, and I can't honestly blame them. This thread should go into the main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 1, 2014 Author Share Posted April 1, 2014 I think the problem is going to extend farther E than JAN. We're going to have 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE even at 12z Friday morning, shear vectors are nearly perpendicular to the convective bands, and QPF output is not very linear looking. WFO HUN is mentioning supercells predawn into the morning hours Friday, and I can't honestly blame them. This thread should go into the main forum. Yeah I saw that earlier as well. And of course MEG and LZK are barely mentioning it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 I think the problem is going to extend farther E than JAN. We're going to have 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE even at 12z Friday morning, shear vectors are nearly perpendicular to the convective bands, and QPF output is not very linear looking. WFO HUN is mentioning supercells predawn into the morning hours Friday, and I can't honestly blame them. This thread should go into the main forum. I agree on both points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 HRRR called it... surprisingly. Euro and GFS were also hinting at it, but it's still quite surprising given the neutral/rising height tendencies and weak convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 TCU field is fading north of the warned storms near Throckmorton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2014 Author Share Posted April 2, 2014 Mid level meso is intensifying with the southern most of that pair of cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Mid level meso is intensifying with the southern most of that pair of cells. LCLs are kinda high still, but wouldn't rule out a tornado, especially as temps drop a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2014 Author Share Posted April 2, 2014 Tornado warning for it. Edit: some seriously large hail also likely with it, VIL is maxed out with >70 dbz returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 This thing's not going to tornado. The hook is surging forward because of the very negatively buoyant RFD, and it's choking sfc-based inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Tornado warning for it. Edit: some seriously large hail also likely with it, VIL is maxed out with >70 dbz returns. Warning from SJT only says golf ball sized hail... Seems like it would be producing a lot larger hail than that, or it's just dropping buckets of golfballs.EDIT: Now showing tennis ball sized hail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Not going to lie, that Throckmorton cell kinda makes me wish I pulled the trigger today. Super impressive storm cell. It's been too long since I've seen something in that league. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Ended up sitting just east of Waurika, OK for a while this afternoon. Ended up with a bunch of TCU that didn't do a thing. Decided not to head south towards the TX warned storm, as we would just be making it down there now...after sunset. Given the way it's starting to look, it was probably a good decision not to go. Back to Norman for the night...Then somewhere in KS/OK tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Nice to see the FDR 88D has already implemented SAILS, so we're getting twice as many low-level scans as before. Can you post a screenshot of what that's supposed to look like? I've got the newest GR3 2.0 but can't get it working. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Can you post a screenshot of what that's supposed to look like? I've got the newest GR3 2.0 but can't get it working. Thanks. GR3 starting with version 2.16 will have it already installed. If you tune into Fredrick, it should be seamless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Meanwhile, back in Texas.. looks like we have a classic splitter going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 GR3 starting with version 2.16 will have it already installed. If you tune into Fredrick, it should be seamless. Yeah, as soon as I posted that, I noticed the extra scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Tennis ball size hail mentioned in the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2014 Author Share Posted April 2, 2014 NAM out to 24 hrs, shows 4000 J/kg SBCAPE over OKC tomorrow @ 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Pretty explosive soundings for OKC at 00z and 03z tomorrow off the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Corresponding NAM sounding for OKC at 00z (24hrs) EDIT: Ninja'd by Stebo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 OKC at 27hr (03z): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Nice supercell on NAM simultated reflectivity at 00z for OKC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 That's one nasty sickle hodograph forecasted by the NAM above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 NAM 4km/12km both look pretty sick for tomorrow evening in OK 4km NAM seems to be popping CAPE values of around 4500J/Kg 0-3KM EHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Gotta wonder if we get CI tomorrow along the dryline..not sold on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Gotta wonder if we get CI tomorrow along the dryline..not sold on it. Gonna be a hell of a show if we do get some discrete cells to fire... Pretty much no SBCIN with EHI values greater than 6 across a large part of eastern OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Yikes. /goes and hides in a underground steel re-enforced cold war bunker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Gotta wonder if we get CI tomorrow along the dryline..not sold on it. There may be just enough of a cap to prevent initiation. However, there is some indication that a hydrostatic "heat low" will form tomorrow in SW OK/ southern TX panhandle as a result of the 90+ degree temperatures in that region. That could increase low-level backing (greater SRH) and convergence (possibly greater lift). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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