Chicago Storm Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Left not too long ago, headed south. Not sure whether or not we'll chase today (Tue), but for sure on Wed and Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Left not too long ago, headed south. Not sure whether or not we'll chase today (Tue), but for sure on Wed and Thur. Heading out with Adam? Have a safe and fun drive south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Left not too long ago, headed south. Not sure whether or not we'll chase today (Tue), but for sure on Wed and Thur. Good luck! Nice to see the chaser contingent finally at it again. I'll almost definitely be out tomorrow and Wed. During the couple hours the DL backed W of town here tonight, I could finally feel and smell it again... nothing like this time of year in the Plains, nothing even close. My hesitation on which of those two days is better chase-wise started several days ago, and isn't really any closer to a resolution tonight. Most modeling still supports supercells near or S of SPS tomorrow from the late afternoon into the early evening, and the NSSL WRF has maxed-out UH for a few hours. Isolated, great structure likely and relatively flat terrain -- but low tornado potential in any case. Wednesday is a real bear. Initiation is questionable, low-level shear is questionable, but the ceiling is obviously higher than tomorrow by a good bit. Terrain and population centers will be problems. Don't know what to think yet at all. See you out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 1, 2014 Author Share Posted April 1, 2014 So the Euro essentially shows a tornado outbreak beginning in E OK/SE KS on Thursday afternoon and continuing throughout the entire evening period through MO/AR and into the Mid South and Lower OV...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Heading out with Adam? Have a safe and fun drive south!Yes indeed. And thanks, the same to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Good luck! Nice to see the chaser contingent finally at it again. I'll almost definitely be out tomorrow and Wed. During the couple hours the DL backed W of town here tonight, I could finally feel and smell it again... nothing like this time of year in the Plains, nothing even close. My hesitation on which of those two days is better chase-wise started several days ago, and isn't really any closer to a resolution tonight. Most modeling still supports supercells near or S of SPS tomorrow from the late afternoon into the early evening, and the NSSL WRF has maxed-out UH for a few hours. Isolated, great structure likely and relatively flat terrain -- but low tornado potential in any case. Wednesday is a real bear. Initiation is questionable, low-level shear is questionable, but the ceiling is obviously higher than tomorrow by a good bit. Terrain and population centers will be problems. Don't know what to think yet at all. See you out there. Yea, it will feel great to be out there again...and it might be the last time for a while (I'm riding the CFS), so might as well take advantage of the potential.There's a better chance than not that we'll be out there Tue, but there is some question. Agree re: potential Tue...A short lived LP-ish supercell or two should just about do it, at most...Which is fine with me. Also agree with the concerns over Wed, but I feel a good bit better than I do about Tue. We'll see how it all pans out, and maybe we'll see some of you out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 It looks like the NAM blows up discrete convection in the Arklatex tomorrow evening in what would be an extremely favorable tornadic environment, especially from ~23z-04z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 24-hour calibrated severe probabilities, ending Thursday 12z (Wednesday forecast day) and Friday 12z (Thursday forecast day). I see that Wednesday has some pretty big %s in MIssouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 I like how a good deal of guidance keeps blowing storms up further south into east Texas, but wind profiles seem to be getting worse and worse with each successive model suite down here (possibly due to cold front orientation). Still holding out hope that I can get north between here and D/FW after my test Thursday, but I really hope the trend with the wind profiles reverses or I might scrap chasing altogether. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Made it to Norman...headed south in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Well, the 12z Euro for tomorrow is not what I want to see.... That's ugggggly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Well, the 12z Euro for tomorrow is not what I want to see.... That's ugggggly. You mean ugly like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 yeah at the 36 hour panel, you can see the distinct supercells across central OK. There looks to be 3 of them from north to south. Then the 42 hour panel is just nasty from SE KS south to the TX border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 4km NAM (12z run) has a bow echo type structure in Missouri at hour 28 (that is, 16z tomorrow). That's west of St. Louis, around Columbia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Like ABI to RPH today. Also southern OK could do something as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 The number one analog for Friday @ 00z is 3/12/2006, which is easily one of the most memorable outbreaks for me. There are some problems with that analog though due to the fact we had a rather cool/neutral ENSO state at the time and that system seemed more impressive aloft. Something to keep an eye on though... Current GFS: NARR 3/12/2006: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 The number one analog for Friday @ 00z is 3/12/2006, which is easily one of the most memorable outbreaks for me. There are some problems with that analog though due to the fact we had a rather cool/neutral ENSO state at the time and that system seemed more impressive aloft. Something to keep an eye on though... 2006031318_024_ptsvr.png Current GFS: gfs212_4pSYN1b_F060.png NARR 3/12/2006: NARR4pSYN1b_2006031306.png Let me assure you that the "shortcomings" of this system compared to that one will likely be offset by the much better moisture quality and likely better instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Like ABI to RPH today. Also southern OK could do something as well. The HRRR has concurred with that all day. Encouraging consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Tomorrow could be a tough call for some out chasing. I'm not sold on the I-44 corridor and locations N being a slam dunk but it has enough thermodynamically to be dangerous. The best dynamics however, appear to be along and S of I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 The 18z RGEM has an impressive look for wednesday evening across E OK, SW MO and NW AR w/ backed flow at the surface and strong veering through the sounding(SRH values in access of 450 from E TX through most of AR and into OK east of TUL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Anyone have experience with the 4 KM NAM in severe situations? Is it ever anywhere close to being correct? The warm frontal placement is much farther south than pretty much all the other models tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Heading west towards Wichita Falls currently. TCU is clearly visible to the west along the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Reports from SW OK saying that TCU are forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Quick look at vis satellite suggests just North of the Red River is probably the place, if anything is going soon at all, Near the dry line/old frontal junction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 TCU... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 The number one analog for Friday @ 00z is 3/12/2006, which is easily one of the most memorable outbreaks for me. There are some problems with that analog though due to the fact we had a rather cool/neutral ENSO state at the time and that system seemed more impressive aloft. Something to keep an eye on though... 2006031318_024_ptsvr.png Current GFS: gfs212_4pSYN1b_F060.png NARR 3/12/2006: NARR4pSYN1b_2006031306.png Not sure ENSO state matters when you're looking at a particular system this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Not sure ENSO state matters when you're looking at a particular system this close in. The H5 pattern has that nina look anyways with the MJO in phase 3 and low/mid level easterlies over the tropical pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Cell taking off pretty quickly near Stamford TX. Already over 40kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 1, 2014 Author Share Posted April 1, 2014 Alright, judging by most of today's guidance, it appears that tomorrow does have some more widespread potential, at least going off the consistent Euro and also some of the NAM-associated runs. If we do see storms fire, especially further west into OK, but also along the WF in MO/etc, they likely will have the potential for the full gambit of severe weather modes given likely adequate deep layer and low level shear, strong instability and increasingly deep low level moisture. Thursday is obviously the day with the greatest potential for a widespread, significant severe weather event. There isn't a ton really detracting from it, the dry air in the mid levels moving into the Ozarks in the morning should help reduce any leftover convection from Wednesday from west to east. Another caveat is the potential for a VBV profile to develop in AR later on, which the GFS has shown more strongly, but has also been weaker in more recent runs. The NAM has been more subtle (albeit still out of its more favorable range) and Euro basically doesn't have it at all and hasn't consistently. It's of note that the wind profile on the GFS is generally clean in MO through the whole event, where storms look to traverse the southern half of the state. The amount of instability across a very wide axis on Thursday (cold mid level temperatures, large expanse of 60˚F+ dewpoints and also deep moisture profiles to the 850 mb level) has been discussed ad nauseum and still looks impressive anyway you slice it. In addition, the forcing and deep layer shear magnitude for supercells is favorable along the entire boundary, and the low level shear will certainly become stronger as the LLJ intensifies into the evening. The entire boundary and out ahead could essentially unzip from MO southward to E TX. This all makes for the potential of a widespread severe event being quite high and it seems likely a D2 moderate will be included tonight assuming most things hold. In addition, what is really getting my attention is how the LLJ noses in and strengthens to over 50 kts post-00z into the Mid South. Areas like PAH, MEG and JAN's CWAs could see quite the problem transpire during this time as a tornadic QLCS looks to be the minimum issue that could develop. Other scenarios are a mix of supercells and the QLCS or even just straight supercells, which would certainly have the potential for strong tornadoes given CAPE still likely in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and 0-1 km shear increasing in excess of 35 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 The cell NW of Abilene, I didn't expect that. I thought the apparent frontal/dryline junction North of SPS into Oklahoma would be the initiation point. Maybe when whatever subtle feature triggered that reaches the more obvious low level features... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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