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April 1st-4th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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What caused April 3 to be a busted tornado outlook? Almost no tornadoes occurred in the middle of the moderate risk outlook. The 15% tornado contour, on the 13z outlook, was in northeast Arkansas, and the southern half of Missouri. Overall, there were only 13 tornadoes for the day (as of now.)

 

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What caused April 3 to be a busted tornado outlook? Almost no tornadoes occurred in the middle of the moderate risk outlook. The 15% tornado contour, on the 13z outlook, was in northeast Arkansas, and the southern half of Missouri. Overall, there were only 13 tornadoes for the day (as of now.)

 

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I think it was due to too much cloudiness and messy storms going up all at once during the morning.  I had a feeling that the moderate risk wouldn't pan out.

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The cloudiness I think was a symptom rather than a cause. The subtle impulse I mentioned several pages back? It came at the wrong time, brought storms in the morning, and left behind subsidence in its wake in the free warm sector in the afternoon, when conditions were prime. The low-level flow veered terribly along the front and moisture mixed out. TX was farther away from the subsidence and the veered winds so storms did break out there, but the low-level shear profiles there were crap compared to those in the MDT risk area.

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looking back at the LZK sounding for 00z April 4, it shows a layer above the boundary layer of lapse rates near moist adiabatic, that is, no CAPE, but not much CINH either. It can be hard to get a storm going in those conditions, without CAPE just above the boundary layer.

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Interesting notes from the event, only 3 tornadoes

were confirmed in TX.  The Farmersville tornado

report was rescinded, and no tornadoes touched

down around Denton.  The Merit-Greenville

tornado was wide, but did not quite reach EF-2

on the damage scale.  The Cooper-Tira tornado

was also only EF-1.  No tornadoes were confirmed

in the Little Rock CWA, despite being in the 15%

hatched tornado area.  Paducah confirmed 5

tornadoes, and Springfield-St. Louis confirmed

zero between both, with the reported tornadoes

near Rich Fountain and Washington rescinded.

2 tornadoes were confirmed in the morning of

the 3rd as well, in Carmi and University City.

In all, just 10 tornadoes occurred on the 3rd.

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