Superstorm93 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Are you satisfied now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Currently on the storm near Arcadia, along the KS/MO border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Hook with very decent rotation NW of Denton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noxx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 TVS now north east of Decatur, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Considering the supercell in Wise and Denton counties of the DFW Metroplex is on the dryline, I'm not surprised it is already rotating. I'm looking at NBC5's regional radar and see the hook echo. There maybe need for a Tornado Warning soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Last TDWR scan 1926 UTC looked like the rotation sig weakened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Dumped the Arcadia storm. It is north of the warm front and ingesting more stable surface air. Heading down to Nevada to pick that one up again. Will follow it east out of Nevada until it intercepts the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noxx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Last TDWR scan 1926 UTC looked like the rotation sig weakened new development sw of that cell? wxground cell ID K0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 new development sw of that cell? wxground cell ID K0 Yes there's linear development forming to the SW of the original cell. TDFW shows very nicely the outflow boundary from the first cell, as the whole line slowly translates east if we were to see something pop out in front I could see it rotating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 gust frontal feature very apparent southeast of the warned thunderstorms in the northwest end of the metroplex. that gust front looks to move thru denton while the hail threat moves to the northeast of Sanger towards Collinsville, Tioga, and Pilot Point. As for the trailing storms, it looks like they'll be almost training over the same track as the initally warned storms. So I have to wonder if flash flooding may become an issue eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Yes there's linear development forming to the SW of the original cell. TDFW shows very nicely the outflow boundary from the first cell, as the whole line slowly translates east if we were to see something pop out in front I could see it rotating. The low-level wind minimum over the area and VBV profiles may complicate tornadogenesis, despite the excellent thermodynamic environment. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Tail end of the line now starting to take on a supercell appearance. We have a truck mounted radar parked in North Ft. Worth, maybe we'll get a look. edit- would be on the far northern edge of our coverage however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 Big time wording in the new D1. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MO...AR SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN TN...NW MS AND NRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY...OZARKS...SRN PLAINS...OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...POTENTIAL FOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY... A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OUT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AT THIS TIME WITH A 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. AS THIS MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ENEWD ACROSS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL AND SSWWD ALONG A COLD FRONT IN SE KS AND NERN OK WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARIES...MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF DISCRETE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM FAR ERN OK EWD ACROSS SCNTRL MO AND AR. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A 50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. WSR-88D VWPS AT SPRINGFIELD MO...LITTLE ROCK AR AND FORTH SMITH AR SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 250 TO 300 M2/S2 RANGE. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MID-LEVEL JET IN THE SRN PLAINS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS FEATURE MERGES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND THAT MULTIPLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY. SEVERAL LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...THE MOST FAVORED CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE FROM SPRINGFIELD MO SWD TO NEAR LITTLE ROCK AND EWD TO NEAR POPLAR BLUFF MO AND MEMPHIS TN. FOR AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES...SEVERAL FACTORS MUST COME TOGETHER. THE FIRST IS THAT MANY DISCRETE CELLS WOULD NEED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET COUPLET PASSES BY. A COUPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH RAISES THE QUESTION ABOUT HOW MANY DISCRETE STORMS THERE WILL BE. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT COULD IMPACT THE EVENT IS THE LARGE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING. ALSO...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE OUTLOOK AT UPPER-END MODERATE RISK MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR A OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK. THE 15 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY HAS BEEN EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NW AR. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX WHERE TORNADO WATCH 52 IS LOCATED. ALSO EXPANDED THE THUNDER AREA WWD INTO PARTS OF WEST TX WHERE HIGH-BASED STORMS HAVE INITIATED. ..BROYLES.. 04/03/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Dryline beginning to light up. Lightning showing up in places with no radar returns. How often does this happen? Overview. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Ninja'd by andy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 did somebody break the DFW radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 The low-level wind minimum over the area and VBV profiles may complicate tornadogenesis, despite the excellent thermodynamic environment. We'll see... Yeah, winds in OK have really veered and will continue so per the RAP... storms seem to have struggled to become discrete. The surging front has also not helped matters although this issue may become less prevalent as the front slows down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Flying towards Hillsboro now. I hate late set off times... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Environement directly ahead for the batch of cells in SW MO doesn't bode too well for discreteness. Deep layer shear is lacking a bit, but then again, the environment will do what it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Just had one of the cells move through here.... A brief wind gust and 3/4" hail is all that happened, but I hope we're done for the day..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Environement directly ahead for the batch of cells in SW MO doesn't bode to well for discreteness. Deep layer shear is lacking a bit, but then again, the environment will do what it wants. Environement directly ahead for the batch of cells in SW MO doesn't bode to well for discreteness. Deep layer shear is lacking a bit, but then again, the environment will do what it wants. I'm concerned about the southwest surface winds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 lol...have dropped south to several cells, and am now on one near Jasper, MO. None have looked too interesting this far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 hook echo near Denton, TX. No tornado warning, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 hook echo near Denton, TX. No tornado warning, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Large hook over Denton from broader anticyclonic/cyclonic rotation in WER. Will it tighten? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 an awfully suspicious signature right now near Denton , TX. there is a gust front there, but something seems to want to be wrapping in behind that gust front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Very unimpressive, even for linear mode. Retreating along I-44 back towards Rolla. We will wait for the line to try and mature, and hang out along the warm front further east where shear and helicity are better. Hopefully a nice QLCS spinup can save this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Along with the veering winds, moisture has mixed out along the front in eastern OK and swrn MO... dewpoints are around 60F (or even a bit lower) in the area. Best tornado potential may be in TX, but even there the low-level winds are rather weak so it's questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I believe they just fixed the FWS nexrad... seeing images again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 tornado warning near Quincy MO. This seems to be a hooking supercell in a mess of other cells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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