nrgjeff Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Much of Texas is capped right now; however, you'll notice that complex riding the Red River. North Texas will have an outflow boundary to work with later today. Cap is forecast to erode later this afternoon. I'm a little surprised SPC TOR probabilities are so low in North Texas. One could use the hatched 30% hail as a proxy for 5-10% tor. North Texas, especially locally at low levels near that OFB, should have good shear. Adequate winds upstairs are noted over North Texas. Agree wiht SPC South Texas lacks wind shear. The main area is Arkansas and Missouri. Agree with Tony about Arkansas. East-west outflow boundary is set up to intersect dry line in Arkansas. The said OFB also gives a chance east of the DL over the flatter Delta of eastern AR. Finally southern Missouri is clearing out, but it is horrible chase terrain. Perhaps it'll be the Show Me Tornado State today. Best of luck to chasers. Everyone stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 There is no need for a tornado watch? Good catch on this. Just before 9am I noticed the cumulus clouds were forming columns punching above the surrounding cloud tops. The clouds gradually thickened and lowered until now we have a very loud thunderstorm, but no severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 SPC reports indicates tornado damage (with squall line) in St. Louis, MO (University City) at 10:23z and 10:47z. That's before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Yeah preliminary report of EF1 tornado in University City..suburb of St. Louis. Wonder what this evening will bring. The local NWS has no idea why the SPC dropped the st louis metro from the moderate risk per a conference call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 He wasn't saying you were wrong, chill out. Indeed. He was there in person but for someone who was not, that picture by itself is not terribly convincing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Jeff Piotrowski @Jeff_Piotrowski 3m I'm concerned about the following areas for tornados starting by 3:00 PM NE/ OK- SE/KS- SW/MO - NW/AR. #okwx #kswx #mowx #arwx stay safe today chasers and locals alike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 In Winfield, KS now...Heading east towards Joplin, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Convection down in AR is still of the crappy elevated type. I wouldn't expect this stuff to become rooted to the surface until much later/further east. I'm going to stick to the OFB laid down in SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 ChiStorm, We're headed towards Joplin as well. Want to meet there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 So, there's this... http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_12z_maxuphl_animate_1h.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 12Z GFS also shows more of a secondary low over eastern OK around and after 00Z 04 April. That could further enhance the tornado threat late afternoon and well into evening across central/eastern AR, northwest MS, and southwest TN. Surface temperatures in east of OKC are already a bit higher as of 21Z than forecast by the 06-12Z GFS runs. The warmer temperatures that in the wake of the convection over western AR/eastern OK could further induce a mesolow to form late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 So, there's this... http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_12z_maxuphl_animate_1h.html Yeah, nice cu field out here already. Cap is already weak (as per weak storms firing along that OFB in SW MO), Will be interesting to see the CF storms interact with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 ChiStorm, We're headed towards Joplin as well. Want to meet there?I'll let you know...We're still a little over 2hrs out, so things could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Stay safe out there everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Very impressed with the mesoscale models and what they are showing for later this afternoon. Some of them handled yesterday very well, I would be concerned for Missouri and Arkansas later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Cells firing SE of Joplin may be worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 So, everyone headed to Joplin? Reed Timmer, Jeff Piotrowski are here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Stopped in Nevada, MO for a bit. I see no real reason to continue east into that blob of unorganized crap. A few isolated towers going up over here, but the cap isn't quite broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 3500 CAPE already in se KS under that clearing per SPC meso page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Will be interesting to see if the DFW area gets a surprise this afternoon. FWD mentioned in their update that the dryline slowed down or may stall west of here a county or two. They increased our pops to 40% now instead of the 20% this morning. Very muggy here with on and off sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW MO...NE OK...FAR NW AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 031733Z - 031900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS SE KS INTO NE OK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED CU FIELD JUST AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS SE KS SWD INTO NE OK. 17Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE IF ANY CAP REMAINED ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH MODIFIED 17Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS /AT LEAST INITIALLY/. AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MIDLEVEL WAVE IMPINGES ON THE REGION...STORMS MAY TEND TOWARD UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR QLCS STRUCTURES. EITHER WAY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8 DEG C PER KM AND SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 0049 WOULD LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THREAT AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO SW MO/NW AR. ..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/03/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I would love for a storm to explode over Tulsa. Looks like this is a possibility? Going to be a fun couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noxx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Will be interesting to see if the DFW area gets a surprise this afternoon. FWD mentioned in their update that the dryline slowed down or may stall west of here a county or two. They increased our pops to 40% now instead of the 20% this morning. Very muggy here with on and off sun. that system north of the metroplex this morning also was surprisingly strong and there is definately still some potential! dews in the upper 60s! 3500 CAPE already in se KS under that clearing per SPC meso page. MD concerning that area: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0261.html Looks like se KS will be much more involved than they thought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 New Tor Watch for Eastern OK/ Western MO PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY 50/30 for tors/strong tors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 TW north of Springfield, MO. Decent couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Initiation in Rogers County OK on the dryline as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 Inflow really ramping up on the latest scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Question: Is the SPC server down? I cannot access the site or view NWS radar data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 85 degrees here in Tulsa, dew point at 64...and sunny. Feels very soupy outside, and hotter than predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Question: Is the SPC server down? I cannot access the site or view NWS radar data. Yeah, it's down again. For future reference, you can always check by using isup.me: http://isup.me/http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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