andyhb Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 Yea it was from video footage. Took a still so quality is bad. Also had to play with contrast. Lightning wasnt helping us. It was a tornado. Sick of people doubting us. We had many respectable chasers with us and all of them agreed. The terrain didnt help either. So believe what you want man. It is your opinion and you are entitled He wasn't saying you were wrong, chill out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Lol defensive. People act like its a competition^ Who gives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 More in response to lack of action West of I-35 and commentary on drought/DP relationship, an additional negative factor for DPs. 4 days old or not, I doubt >1ºC temp anomalies disappeared just like that, and SSTs are closer to or even above normal father East in the Gulf, so better dew points further East on the coast isn't unsurprising. And I chose the NHC anomaly map over the daily updated AOML sat derived SST maps because I was discussing the anomaly. And nowhere did I mention any opinions on what happens tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if the combination of the below-avg Gulf SST's and the drought will make quality moisture hard to come by west of I-35 for a little while longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 It's only one high-res model and it's only out 27h, but the NSSL WRF is really something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 It's only one high-res model and it's only out 27h, but the NSSL WRF is really something else. post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 NSSL WRF 10-m reflectivity loop: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/refl_loop.html Max 1-6km updraft helicity loop: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/uhmx16_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 NSSL WRF 10-m reflectivity loop: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/refl_loop.html Max 1-6km updraft helicity loop: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/uhmx16_loop.html Wow that updraft helicity loop is unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 Not sure if I've ever seen the NSSL WRF go that bullish for widespread supercells/strong UH signatures like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 Moderate risk with near the max probabilities for one. 15% sig hatched tornado/45% sig hatched hail/45% wind. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1258 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014VALID 031200Z - 041200Z...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR AR...CNTRL/S MO...S IL...WKY/TN...NW MS...FAR N LA......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE WRNGULF COAST......SWATHS OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLETHIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT......SYNOPSIS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARDSTHE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY FRI. A SUBTLE LEAD IMPULSE EVIDENTOVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL PRECEDE THISTROUGH AND SHOULD RACE NEWD TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. AS THE FORMERTROUGH TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT DURING THE LASTHALF OF THE PERIOD...CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE ALONG AQUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO THE QUAD CITIES.ATTENDANT W/E-ORIENTED WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NWD ACROSS THEMIDWEST...BUT ITS ADVANCEMENT WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY ABUNDANTCONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FARTHER W...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWDACROSS ERN OK INTO S-CNTRL TX....BEING PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKEN FROMTHE N BY A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE E/S THU NIGHTAND SHOULD REACH THE MID-MS VALLEY TO WRN GULF COAST BY 12Z/FRI....MIDWEST TO WRN GULF COAST...A MESSY/COMPLEX SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED WITH MORNING CONVECTIONAPPEARING POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF A BROAD WARM/MOISTSECTOR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA.TWO DISTINCT 700 MB JETS ATTENDANT TO THE LEAD IMPULSE AND THE MOREVIGOROUS UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON.IN ADDITION...AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU ACROSSPARTS OF THE LOWER MO/MID-MS VALLEY. THESE FEATURES RENDER LOWCONFIDENCE IN HOW THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT AT PEAKHEATING INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ERN/NRN EXTENT ACROSS THEMS/OH VALLEYS. RELATIVELY LARGE DISAGREEMENT IS ALSO EVIDENT IN 00ZCONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. NEVERTHELESS...A LARGEWARM/MOIST SECTOR...EXTENSIVE PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSERATES...AND STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST ANY MAJOR CHANGES TOINHERITED MODERATE RISK ARE PREMATURE ATTM.GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS INTHE LATE AFTERNOON EXISTS INVOF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTIONACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. HERE...PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING NEARTHIS INTERSECTION SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVELHEIGHT FALLS. AMIDST LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...STEEPLAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLSCAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW SIGNIFICANTTORNADOES. AS CONVERGENCE/WIND FIELDS NEAR THE MERGING FRONT/DRYLINESTRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MOREMCS/S APPEARS LIKELY WITH RISK TRANSITIONING TO PREDOMINANTLYDAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL INTENSITY WITH ERN EXTENT SHOULD BEMODULATED BY THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OFEARLY-PERIOD CONVECTION NEAR THE WARM FRONT.FARTHER S INTO ERN TX...MORE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONGTHE DRYLINE WITH VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILES A POTENTIAL LIMITINGFACTOR TO SUSTAINABILITY OF SUPERCELLS. FARTHER E TOWARDS THE LOWERMS VALLEY...PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE WITHIN A PLUME OF MIDDLE TO UPPER60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND GLANCING INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHTFALLS SHOULD AID IN A CLUSTER OF TSTMS FORMING THIS EVENING. ALLSEVERE HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTTORNADOES IN INITIAL SUPERCELLS AS WELL. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ANEXTENSIVE MCS MAY YIELD A PREDOMINANT AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREADDAMAGING WIND RISK OVERNIGHT...GRAMS/KERR.. 04/03/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Another subtlety of the NSSL-WRF run is that is has discrete convection popping right ahead of the squall line overnight tomorrow night across northern AL (right on top of Huntsville/Madison, in fact, but that doesn't mean much). The point is that it's possible we may see a nasty sup or two ahead of the line overnight, and I'm guessing they'd probably be tornadic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Sorry. Just had a bunch of FB drama bout it. Was irritated. But you are right it isnt a competition. I chase for the love of weather and had a great day. But onto tmrw. Looks very potent. My gut says play wf but warm sector sups are tempting. Im just afraid low level winds might veer too much. Esp as cf overtakes dryline. Multiple targets. Not sure what to do yet. Lots of nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 For posterity, the 00z 3 April Euro QPF at 00z 4 April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Looks like a very active day but I can't motivate myself to go chase in the trees/hills in MO/AR today. Good luck to those chasing and be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 This is a tough one... hard to tell which areas to focus on and the wind profiles are pretty fragile... low-levels veer quite a bit thru the day. Certainly potential is there. Not sure what to think about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 So I'm on the line tomorrow. Initiation could take place anywhere from just west of here to just east of here. Naturally I'm hoping for the just east of here option. For those that are chasing.......It's still fairly early in the season and we had a cold winter, so the trees are just starting to bud and blossom and many still remain bare so you won't necessarily be chasing in the jungle yet in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Ended up staying with that one main supercell that moved from far N. Oklahoma, into Kansas...and eventually south of ICT. It was elevated most of the time, but did provide some photogentic structure, and also nickel size hail. Early target for tomorrow is somewhere in C. Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgidd8 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I lurk here quite often to get a feel for what days to chase since most of y'all are far more adept at forecasting than I'll ever be. I just wanted to give a report of my chase tonight. I had to wait for my chase partner to finish an exam so we had a late start, but arrived towards the Kansas border from Norman via 35 around 6:30. We decided to head towards the two cells that originated around Hundtley sp? Kansas, but decided to head west towards the late blooming cell that was nearing 35 from the southwest in south central Kansas when it became apparent the other two were weakening. Before reaching 35 from the west we stopped and witnessed a funnel that quickly dissipated as the cell was reaching 35. Long story short we tracked this storm as it moved ene for an hour or so as it produced successive wall clouds and regenerated multiple times. Once it was about 20-30 miles east of 35, it sped up drastically to the point we couldn't get in front of it, so we watched it speed off to the ne. Without a doubt, the view of this cell about 3 miles to its se was the most amazing weather scene I've witnessed to date. Using the lightning to frame it's massive height all the way down to its wall cloud only a couple hundred feet from the ground can only be described as surreal. Even though it was nighttime, it maintained a beautiful structure for hours and while I rarely get the opportunity to chase it was probably my most fun storm to date. I apologize cluttering this thread with a somewhat useless story on a night most would deem a "bust", but I just wanted to share with you guys. Good luck to everyone who gets to go out tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Anyone noticing the strong dry air intrusion (on 2m DP map) showing up on the HRRR/RAP the last few hours? What's causing that? It's not showing up on the 06z NAM. It's strongly punching in from southern OK into NE OK at around 19z tomorrow. EDIT: SGF noticed it as well: There are a few tidbits worth mentioning regardingthe tornado threat. First off, the last several runs of the RAP andto some point the NAM indicate some sort of dry line bulge comingout of northeast Oklahoma. If this were to happen, we may see alocalized increase in low level shear which would enhance tornadopotential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 That MCS moving through central MO is likely bad news as it will likely lay out an OFB for supercells to interact with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 09z HRRR at the end of its run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 4k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I'm torn about venturing out into east Texas for a chase today. Most parameters actually don't look too bad, but wind profiles are pretty mediocre and trees quickly become a problem the further east you go. I'll have a few hours to mull it over before I decide to pull the trigger or not. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Nothing major changed: .NEAR-TERM CONCERNS INITIAL MCS OVER SRN IL AND ERN MO MAY POSE SHORT-TERM RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS...AND ANOTHER BRIEF/SMALL QLCS-TYPE TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS LEADING EDGE ROLLS DOWN VORTICITY-ENHANCED WARM FRONT. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 255 FOR DETAILS. COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER E ALONG WARM FRONT THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...WITH AT LEAST MRGL WIND-DAMAGE RISK. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER SW...OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX. ACTIVITY INITIALLY APPEARED ROOTED IN LAYER OF ELEVATED INFLOW BELOW VERY STEEP EML-SUPPLIED/DCVA-ENHANCED LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OFFER RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 256 FOR MORE DETAILS. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO WEAKER-CINH REGIME DESCRIBED BELOW...IT MAY ERODE CAPPING FROM ABOVE WHILE FOREGOING/INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS HEATS DIABATICALLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Although it's somewhat more unlikely than likely, what are some key indicators in this situation that might make the difference between a MDT and a HIGH risk at 1630Z today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 There is no need for a tornado watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 There is no need for a tornado watch? Not at 9 am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I know I'm just outside of the region being in far western Illinois but we had some insane frequent lightning last night for about two hours. Also got a good 2.5 inches of rain. Nice burst of hail too. That was some serious mcs action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Tornado watch just issued. MO/AR ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 These storms in AR don't appear to have massive instability-destroyed cold pools. If anything, this bodes for a worse outcome due to the likely establishment of tornado-favorable boundaries for this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noxx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 is this outbreak today depending on sun radiation? Seems quite cloudy in the region and more to come as the system over nrn tx fall apart... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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