andyhb Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 Two pretty nasty cells in KS on the WF, one south of ICT and the other near the KS/MO border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 What time frame are we looking at for initiation in MO/AR tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Two pretty nasty cells in KS on the WF, one south of ICT and the other near the KS/MO border. What are your thoughts on tomorrow Andy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 This post here essentially sums up my thoughts, although I'm growing more confident in a sustained supercell mode for a substantial amount of time. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43332-april-1st-4th-severe-weather-thread/page-4#entry2918286 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 That supercell south of ICT right now looks pretty nice, has a hook on it... Not showing much rotation though, at least from what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 That supercell south of ICT right now looks pretty nice, has a hook on it... Not showing much rotation though, at least from what I can see. It is most likely outflow dominant at this point. Looks like it's right on the WF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 It is most likely outflow dominant at this point. Looks like it's right on the WF. yeah, I meant nice looking from a radar stand point... Just north of the WF according to wind direction, and DP's, 15 miles south and it'd be all good. Intellicast called the cell "tornadic" and I laughed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 We've been on the storm south of ICT for a while now. A wall cloud was visible a bit earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Kind of surprised the SPC put SE Kansas in a 30% hatched for hail at 01Z especially the part of SEK where there was no TSTM's or signs of development... Mentioned a potential MCS, not seeing any signs of that happening at all unless numerous TSRA start developing... Or am I missing something ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 Some things never change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 What time frame are we looking at for initiation in MO/AR tomorrow? I still think it could be an early show, possibly before noon. 00Z NAM is just coming in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Someone needs to tell the HRRR that the nighttime convection it keeps trying to pull northeast out of Mexico and into western Texas is not going to happen. It wouldn't be the first time it has erroneously shown such a solution either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 This is at 15z tomorrow just W of Ft. Smith on the NAM. If this verifies, it won't matter when initiation occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 My mother lives in central Arkansas, about 20 miles NE of Little Rock. I've already told her to at least keep an eye out...was it warranted? Is this going to make it to LR or is it staying mainly west? I remember April 2011 all too well for our area here in central NC as well as my area in central AR...and, coincidentally, my birthplace of Springfield MA less than 2 months later. I feel like these things are out to get me, so yeh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 My mother lives in Central Arkansas, about 20 miles NE of Little Rock. I've already told her to at least keep an eye out...was it warranted? Is this going to make it to LR or is it staying mainly west? I remember April 2011 all too well for our area here in central NC as well as my area in central AR...and, coincidentally, my birthplace of Springfield MA less than 2 months later. I feel like these things are out to get me, so yeh. It's definitely going to make its way to Little Rock, some activity will likely make it past the Mississippi River at least by early Friday morning, if not sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 It's definitely going to make its way to Little Rock, some activity will likely make it past the Mississippi River at least by early Friday morning, if not sooner. I'm worried. What time frame are we looking at for LR? Sorry, I'm just not so good at reading these things but want to make sure my friends out there will be safe, ya know. Our town was flattened in '76 and came close in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Turrible day today, and a turrible overforecast by yours truly this morning. Glad I at least got my first supercell of the year yesterday and it was moderately pretty. Really feel for the guys who marathoned it from IL and other distant locales for this sham of a Plains setup. Can't help but to suspect the disastrous drought played a role in the outcome. We'll never know if 2-3 F higher sfc Tds across the warm sector would have tipped the scales, but it couldn't have hurt. And with an imminent return to a god-awful northwest flow pattern unlikely to bring Plains precipitation, this will almost certainly continue to plague any setup(s) which focus over the western parts of OK/TX this spring. Bring on the NE/Dakotas season asap. As for tomorrow, I haven't been exceptionally excited about it, but it will obviously be the biggest of the three days. Hodographs are a bit more straight than I'd like to see, but that's just if we're looking for the doomsday HIGH risk scenarios being discussed in some circles. I'm sure there will be tornadoes across MO/AR tomorrow and it should be the most significant severe day of 2014 thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 Forgive me, but you're essentially throwing out the S Plains season based on one borderline busted setup in early April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Forgive me, but you're essentially throwing out the S Plains season based on one borderline busted setup in early April? C'mon now, that's not even close to what I said. My only point is that the southwestern corner of the Great Plains tends to have problems with greater BL mixing during drought, which has shown time and time again over the past several years. Those problems can be overcome in really good setups, and furthermore, it becomes less of a problem as you get closer to the more tree-covered I-35 corridor (though that's coincident with less desirable chase territory). Still, it's a bit of a handicap, if you will, anytime things are borderline. I'm not even claiming that the more vigorous mixing was responsible for today's bust (I guess I'll bold it next time, if that's what it takes to avoid confusion and an unnecessary tangent of OT posts?). But when surface dew points verify 3-5 F lower than the GFS/NAM indicated over a wide portion of the warm sector, it doesn't help, to say the least. When I say "bring on the northern season," that doesn't mean I'm discounting the southern season, and busts like today aren't the only reason I'm saying it. We could very well have another 5/24/11 type setup in a few weeks, for all we know. I'm just tired of it happening around this area is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Meh... it was a slight risk day for a reason. People have been discussing a potential dearth of convection today for days, so I'm hesitant to call today a "bust". It was a slowish start to the season, and folks are antsy, but I see no reason for disillusionment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I think colder than usual waters in the NW Gulf after an unusually cold Winter may affect the quality of moisture return as well. I know locally the sub 20ºC water along the Upper Texas Coast means higher DP air from farther South tends to form fog on the coast and low clouds that often don't burn off until well in the day in Houston, and a cooler Gulf can't help moisture quality in airmasses that didn't start farther South, but are instead partially modified polar airmasses returning inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 Anyway, some pretty strong rotation aloft on the cell east of ICT and south of Eureka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Moving on to tomorrow... 00z 4km NAM has MO getting lit up with supercells tomorrow. Maxes out the 2-5km UH at some points during the evening. Basically has convection from MI to LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I think colder than usual waters in the NW Gulf after an unusually cold Winter may affect the quality of moisture return as well. I know locally the sub 20ºC water along the Upper Texas Coast means higher DP air from farther South tends to form fog on the coast and low clouds that often don't burn off until well in the day in Houston, and a cooler Gulf can't help moisture quality in airmasses that didn't start farther South, but are instead partially modified polar airmasses returning inland. That is 4 days old, and I think moisture return is absolutely fine for tomorrow Lots of upper 60s and lower 70s dew points already in place that will be lifted northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 Most of the models that are in so far (hi-res/convection allowing or otherwise) are really suggesting that a high risk is becoming more likely tomorrow, and they seem to be all consistent with blotchy VV/precip signatures indicating discrete convection over a large area of the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 That is 4 days old, and I think moisture return is absolutely fine for tomorrow Lots of upper 60s and lower 70s dew points already in place that will be lifted northward. More in response to lack of action West of I-35 and commentary on drought/DP relationship, an additional negative factor for DPs. 4 days old or not, I doubt >1ºC temp anomalies disappeared just like that, and SSTs are closer to or even above normal father East in the Gulf, so better dew points further East on the coast isn't unsurprising. And I chose the NHC anomaly map over the daily updated AOML sat derived SST maps because I was discussing the anomaly. And nowhere did I mention any opinions on what happens tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Most of the models that are in so far (hi-res/convection allowing or otherwise) are really suggesting that a high risk is becoming more likely tomorrow, and they seem to be all consistent with blotchy VV/precip signatures indicating discrete convection over a large area of the warm sector. It's possible, but I definitely wouldn't expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 We saw a brief tornado tonight near Hale, KS. A lot of chasers are givin us hell but i know what we saw. Look at our page for info. facebook.com/MesoscaleMadness pic was from a screen grab from gopro footage by Kholby Martin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 We saw a brief tornado tonight near Hale, KS. A lot of chasers are givin us hell but i know what we saw. Look at our page for info. facebook.com/MesoscaleMadness pic was from a screen grab from gopro footage by Kholby Martin That pic is pretty grainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Yea it was from video footage. Took a still so quality is bad. Also had to play with contrast. Lightning wasnt helping us. It was a tornado. Sick of people doubting us. We had many respectable chasers with us and all of them agreed. The terrain didnt help either. So believe what you want man. It is your opinion and you are entitled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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