Isotherm Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 The deepest snowpack I ever had was close to 18 inches (still very impressive for this area regardless, but to say "the coast was favored" last winter is just wrong). The coast was far from favored. In fact the best combo of deep snowpack/high totals was right through his area of interior NNJ. Anyone southeast of Sussex/Passaic Counties is simply forbidden to call last winter anything worse than "great". It was a great to excellent winter virtually areawide. 18"+ snowstorms on average occur once every several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Plus everyone on this board is in a sub tropical climate except for William and I, so no one really has a right to complain about last winter. That was once in a lifetime type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 12, 2014 Author Share Posted June 12, 2014 The coast was far from favored. In fact the best combo of deep snowpack/high totals was right through his area of interior NNJ. Anyone southeast of Sussex/Passaic Counties is simply forbidden to call last winter anything worse than "great". It was a great to excellent winter virtually areawide. 18"+ snowstorms on average occur once every several years. I definitely thought it as a very nice winter, but some of the storms were downright frustrating, especially 2/13/14. That was just brutal when 10 miles away was snowing for hours after I flipped to rain. But the snowpack and longevity of it was some of the most impressive I've seen for where I live. 10-11 had more snow where I am but the snowpack could never last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 There were plenty of months with more negative EPO's over the past several decades when we examine the data. The most impressive standard deviation that I see for winter 2013-14 is March's +1.24 (which is actually the opposite modality). We've seen months, like June of 1969 for example, with +3.2 standard deviation, +2.2 in late 1976 and +2.8 in early 1978. The winters of 1977-78 and 1978-79 had just as if not more anomalous height patterns either over Alaska or the NPAC in terms of the mid level ridging. The EPO ridges were generally more intense but less expansive in the East pacific than 2013-14. 2013-14:: 1978-79:: 1977-78:: you didn't read the paper. it focuses on a specific enso loading pattern. also, the scales are different in each image other winters prior to el nino onsets with similar patterns: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Plus everyone on this board is in a sub tropical climate except for William and I, so no one really has a right to complain about last winter. That was once in a lifetime type stuff. Last winter was one of eerie symmetry out here...71 inches of snow & 71 days with measurable snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 I definitely thought it as a very nice winter, but some of the storms were downright frustrating, especially 2/13/14. That was just brutal when 10 miles away was snowing for hours after I flipped to rain. Yeah...recall that one...picked up a quick 12.8"...biggest storm of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 I definitely thought it as a very nice winter, but some of the storms were downright frustrating, especially 2/13/14. That was just brutal when 10 miles away was snowing for hours after I flipped to rain. But the snowpack and longevity of it was some of the most impressive I've seen for where I live. 10-11 had more snow where I am but the snowpack could never last. The difference even a few miles made being south of Merrick Rd/Sunrise Highway vs near the Southern State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Weather sucks. Stuck in PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 191 days until winter http://mycountdown.org/Other/Winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 191 days until winter http://mycountdown.org/Other/Winter/ To heck with the official start—less than ten days until we start losing daylight! With this week's weather I wouldn't be upset one bit if winter showed up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 To heck with the official start—less than ten days until we start losing daylight! With this week's weather I wouldn't be upset one bit if winter showed up tomorrow. I'm counting down the days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 191 days until winter http://mycountdown.org/Other/Winter/ meteorological winter starts December 1st and a few of the recent years it started a few weeks before that with the first measurable snowfall so its possible to experience winter weather in about 138 days.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Dear Lord people its June, enjoy the summer! I love winter and hate heat but I at least try to enjoy all 4 seasons. Part of the beauty in living in this part of the country and not Duluth or Phoenix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 at people talking about winter and snow on June 12th like they can't wait. Is your life that miserable that you're incapable of going out and enjoying the beautiful weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 at people talking about winter and snow on June 12th like they can't wait. Is your life that miserable that you're incapable of going out and enjoying the beautiful weather? Do u see there are 3 people reading this stuff , but 1000 may jump on a day before an EC storm . Everyone appreciates nice weather . You will never garner the interest in mid June as you will in mid Jan . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 I hate the heat but you should enjoy every season. The best part is being able to enjoy the changes from season to season in this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 at people talking about winter and snow on June 12th like they can't wait. Is your life that miserable that you're incapable of going out and enjoying the beautiful weather? My life will never be as miserable as that of the guy who spends a week tracking half an inch of rain. Edit: and, like I said, there's nothing beautiful about this weather. It's 63F, overcast, and damp, with prospects of rain. That may be your fetish, but it's not mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 My life will never be as miserable as that of the guy who spends a week tracking half an inch of rain. Edit: and, like I said, there's nothing beautiful about this weather. It's 63F, overcast, and damp, with prospects of rain. That may be your fetish, but it's not mine. You're right, it's much better to spend ten days tracking a winter storm that hits DC instead. And besides, we both know that this is not typical June weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 you didn't read the paper. it focuses on a specific enso loading pattern. also, the scales are different in each image other winters prior to el nino onsets with similar patterns: Ok, I read through the study and I agree with its conclusions overall. It makes some very good points. The winter seasons prior to ensuing El Nino events tend to feature enhanced mid level ridging in the NPAC/AK and there's definitely a connection to increased Rossby wave activity in the northern hemisphere. The upward propagating waves in the WPAC are probably the primary cause of the development of the 500mb ridge, while the +SSTA to the south of Alaska aid in creating a positive feedback cycle to maintain said ridge. The AO effect on strengthening the dipole and potentially aiding the +ENSO development a year later is also an interesting point. I think their argument is weaker for the connection to anthropogenic GHG's and more debatable. The other factors they noted were more than sufficient to induce anomalous ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 You're right, it's much better to spend ten days tracking a winter storm that hits DC instead. And besides, we both know that this is not typical June weather. There are plenty of Junes that have had days like these, it's almost how they are able to produce a near normal month since most sunny days in June create above normal temperatures. And we're still above normal so far this month with some over +1 despite these cooler days and lack of "real heat" or temps 90+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 There are plenty of Junes that have had days like these, it's almost how they are able to produce a near normal month since most sunny days in June create above normal temperatures. And we're still above normal so far this month with some over +1 despite these cooler days and lack of "real heat" or temps 90+. 90+ in June is still well above normal. I think the past few years of mostly above normal warm season temps has distorted views of what is normal and what is not. The same can be said about our snowier and colder winters spoiling people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 90+ in June is still well above normal. I think the past few years of mostly above normal warm season temps has distorted views of what is normal and what is not. The same can be said about our snowier and colder winters spoiling people. Not to pick on you , but didn`t you say a day ago , last winter was just " good " ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Plus everyone on this board is in a sub tropical climate except for William and I, so no one really has a right to complain about last winter. That was once in a lifetime type stuff. What was so great about this past winter. Nothing historical in my area. Getting kind of silly how people call it a great winter because there area was well above normal for snow. The far reaches of NW NJ and the Hudson Valley we were about normal for snow and slightly below normal for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Not to pick on you , but didn`t you say a day ago , last winter was just " good " ? I did say that and I stand by what I said. It was extremely cold which does nothing for me personally. We had a lot of small and moderate events but no real blockbuster storms. And I missed a lot of events that went to my south. It's not a knock on last winter, just for my backyard I've had better. It's like the Boxing Day storm. I only had 14" while places ten miles to my east had 24"+. Does that mean I didn't enjoy it? No. But some posters experienced it as the most intense ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 What was so great about this past winter. Nothing historical in my area. Getting kind of silly how people call it a great winter because there area was well above normal for snow. The far reaches of NW NJ and the Hudson Valley we were about normal for snow and slightly below normal for temps. Exactly, people down in Monmouth County were the jackpot for last winter in our greater region. At least a few storms hit that area hard while places north of I-80 saw little or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 I did say that and I stand by what I said. It was extremely cold which does nothing for me personally. We had a lot of small and moderate events but no real blockbuster storms. And I missed a lot of events that went to my south. It's not a knock on last winter, just for my backyard I've had better. It's like the Boxing Day storm. I only had 14" while places ten miles to my east had 24"+. Does that mean I didn't enjoy it? No. But some posters experienced it as the most intense ever. So in other words you were spoiled by snowier and colder winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Lets make a winter thread like SNE did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 So in other words you were spoiled by snowier and colder winters? No, I'm not sure you're getting my point. Let's go back to the winter of 2010-2011 which many here regard as the best of all time in this area. Then look at 2011-2012. Still a good winter for many but not as good. The winter of 2012-2013 was unbearable here because people had become so accustomed to regular storm threats and KU's always on the horizon that a normal winter was no longer normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 There were so many piss poor forecast the past winter in my area, it makes you wonder how some forecasters have jobs. I would guess we had around 5-8 winter storm warnings that busted. Root casues for the bad forecast - poor snow growth, dry air, low moved to far south at the last minute etc. Euro still owes me over 50 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Last winter was a GREAT winter by many metrics. Almost EVERYONE on this board finished with a top 10 seasonal average and top 10 out of 150 years of record keeping is GREAT when you live at 40- 70 . Just look at what normal is .... Most doubled there yearly average Most finished in the top 10 in the record books Nov Jan Feb March , were all COLDER than normal . And if it didn`t hit 72 on Dec 22, adding 1 full degree onto the average we would have been normal in most areas for DEC too . Either people`s idea of what normal is is skewed or a winter without a 2 foot snowstorm gets discarded in ones mind . There were winters that were colder and with more snowfall , with bigger single events and they are considered great as well . But the amount of continued cold shots and nickel and dime events added up to a top 10 year . If you think last year was just " good " . you have that right , but if you ask me , you are missing what TRUE normal is in you`re area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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