Spring 2014 Banter Thread

[bluewave]

Yep, the idea that we're anywhere close to where we were before the storm is dead wrong.

 

http://liherald.com/longbeach/stories/Sandy-victims-to-rally-on-Saturday,53913

 

Yeah, many people will end up getting priced out of living there. I was in town the other day and it was very sad to 

see all the homes that are still empty. As it was even before Sandy, the rents and property taxes are sky

high.

 

http://www.newsday.com/business/li-flood-insurance-rates-to-rise-despite-law-1.7481141

 

Nearly 60,000 policyholders in New York, including as many as 26,000 on Long Island, are among the 1.1 million nationwide who could see their federally subsidized flood insurance premiums rise as part of changes to the National Flood Insurance Program, according to a review of federal data by The Associated Press.

President Barack Obama on Friday signed into law a measure to delay steep increases from a 2012 overhaul that aimed to shore up the cash-strapped program by phasing out subsidies and requiring policyholders to begin paying risk-based rates immediately.

While the law was widely hailed as a victory for people who had seen their bills triple, quadruple or even increase 15-fold overnight, pocketbook pain for many merely has been delayed.

 

Gay Alexander of Long Beach is one of them.

Superstorm Sandy "is not over," she said, describing the cost for flood insurance on her damaged, waterfront home.

The single mother of two said she can't afford to fix a hole in her house that was left by the October 2012 storm. Alexander's flood insurance bills are rising, she said, to $2,200 this year from a pre-Sandy price of $850.

"And I can't move out because who will buy a house with insurance that keeps going up?" she said.

[IsentropicLift]

We should be good for about another 734 years, which is what models predict the return time is for a storm like Sandy. Next time a storm threat comes, I'll know it's bogus!!! Yayyy

Except that hurricanes directly effect NYC more often than you think, and it's just a matter of time before something that tops Sandy swings through.

 

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/storms_hurricanehistory.shtml

[jm1220]

Except that hurricanes directly effect NYC more often than you think, and it's just a matter of time before something that tops Sandy swings through.

 

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/storms_hurricanehistory.shtml

Yep, 734 years. I mean, don't you understand probability and statistics at all? 100 year storms are happening all over the world now like every month!!!!!!!!

[SRRTA22]

 

 

We should be good for about another 734 years, which is what models predict the return time is for a storm like Sandy. Next time a storm threat comes, I'll know it's bogus!!! Yayyy

Not in this day of age dude. The weather is changing more toward the extreme side. I don't know about "global warming" but the climate seems to be more on the violent side. Honestly no one knows what can or can't happen during our life onto the next generation.

[IsentropicLift]

Yep, 734 years. I mean, don't you understand probability and statistics at all? 100 year storms are happening all over the world now like every month!!!!!!!!

I'm not saying that the probability of a repeat of Sandy is very high. It's not likely in our lifetimes. But every time you have a strong - NAO blocking regime in late Summer you're rolling the dice.

 

Just wanted to point out that tropical cyclones affecting this area is nothing new.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

all the immediate coastal communities from maine to texas are just disasters that haven't happened yet

I live less then a mile from the bay and 2 blocks from a canal. Had zero water on the property during Sandy. House was built in 1937 when they built only in raised areas (we are at 9')

The problem was during suburban spral here in the 40s-50s they built right onto the marsh land. Those houses some of which are further from the bay got absolutely crushed during Sandy.

Take a place like the Jersey Highlands or the Hamptons that due to their higher elevation are and will be just fine.

Building right onto the marshes of Stanten Island given its surge prone location is the true "big mistake"

[jm1220]

I'm not saying that the probability of a repeat of Sandy is very high. It's not likely in our lifetimes. But every time you have a strong - NAO blocking regime in late Summer you're rolling the dice.

 

Just wanted to point out that tropical cyclones affecting this area is nothing new.

The last "perfect storm" before Sandy was in 1991, so that was 21 years before Sandy. The phenomenon that causes storms like Sandy and the Perfect Storm 1991 happens often enough, it's the combination of that plus the track plus everything else that makes it so rare. But there are many ways NYC can get hit very hard from a landfalling hurricane. The track Sandy took though was the absolute worst case scenario.

[IsentropicLift]

I live less then a mile from the bay and 2 blocks from a canal. Had zero water on the property during Sandy. House was built in 1937 when they built only in raised areas (we are at 9')

The problem was during suburban spral here in the 40s-50s they built right onto the marsh land. Those houses some of which are further from the bay got absolutely crushed during Sandy.

Take a place like the Jersey Highlands or the Hamptons that due to their higher elevation are and will be just fine.

Building right onto the marshes of Stanten Island given its surge prone location is the true "big mistake"

Some people assume that low probability means zero probability. Anything can happen really. Including an earthquake in the Atlantic large enough to set off a major tsunami.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Except that hurricanes directly effect NYC more often than you think, and it's just a matter of time before something that tops Sandy swings through.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/storms_hurricanehistory.shtml

That sight is missing some of the greats (not surprising)

Colonial

1893 direct hit

1944 Great Atlantic

[IsentropicLift]

The last "perfect storm" before Sandy was in 1991, so that was 21 years before Sandy. The phenomenon that causes storms like Sandy and the Perfect Storm 1991 happens often enough, it's the combination of that plus the track plus everything else that makes it so rare. But there are many ways NYC can get hit very hard from a landfalling hurricane. The track Sandy took though was the absolute worst case scenario.

We had a few "patterns" last summer that could have caused trouble but the lack of an organized tropical system off the SE coast kept things in check.

 

Patterns in the Atlantic during the late summer that would promote a late recurving track are not that uncommon. Tropical cyclones in the Atlantic during Summer and Fall are not uncommon. Getting both to sink up in unison is what makes it such a low probability.

 

Sandy was a different beast. Because of the time of year that it occurred it had the advantage of a much stronger baraclonic zone than it would have been able to tap in say July or August. Also you can't say that Sandy was a late re-curver like Irene. It tracked from south of Jamaica due north over Cuba and then into Southern NJ.

 

You can put a storm in Sandy's spot south of Jamaica and play things out 1,000,000 times and maybe one or two times it would show a similar result as Sandy.

[IsentropicLift]

That sight is missing some of the greats (not surprising)

Colonial

1893 direct hit

1944 Great Atlantic

Yeah I realized after posting that it says that Sandy made landfall in NYC, that's false too.

[bluewave]

I live less then a mile from the bay and 2 blocks from a canal. Had zero water on the property during Sandy. House was built in 1937 when they built only in raised areas (we are at 9')

The problem was during suburban spral here in the 40s-50s they built right onto the marsh land. Those houses some of which are further from the bay got absolutely crushed during Sandy.

Take a place like the Jersey Highlands or the Hamptons that due to their higher elevation are and will be just fine.

Building right onto the marshes of Stanten Island given its surge prone location is the true "big mistake"

 

My old place only a few blocks form the beach didn't have any flooding since it was in a relatively high part

of Long Beach and built on an elevated  foundation. The water started coming up into the street and rose about 6 inches 

high above the curb. It stopped a few inches below coming over the top step, but the AC unit was totaled

by the saltwater since it was right on ground level. My neighbor across the street lost their whole place

to rot and mold after the storm. The house had no elevated foundation with a step down first floor which

flooded. Parts of Point Lookout and Atlantic Beach did the best since they had the highest elevations.

You could drive a few blocks from the West End into Atlantic Beach and go from 5 feet of flooding

to about 6-12 inches above the flooding and dry.

[jm1220]

We had a few "patterns" last summer that could have caused trouble but the lack of an organized tropical system off the SE coast kept things in check.

 

Patterns in the Atlantic during the late summer that would promote a late recurving track are not that uncommon. Tropical cyclones in the Atlantic during Summer and Fall are not uncommon. Getting both to sink up in unison is what makes it such a low probability.

 

Sandy was a different beast. Because of the time of year that it occurred it had the advantage of a much stronger baraclonic zone than it would have been able to tap in say July or August. Also you can't say that Sandy was a late re-curver like Irene. It tracked from south of Jamaica due north over Cuba and then into Southern NJ.

 

You can put a storm in Sandy's spot south of Jamaica and play things out 1,000,000 times and maybe one or two times it would show a similar result as Sandy.

I keep using "Perfect Storm" to describe Sandy because it really was a perfect confluence of events to cause a huge impact. Full moon, high tide, strong west based NAO block, large hurricane in the exact spot and track to get caught up and recurved west, and then a powerful jet stream disturbance from the continental US to phase into it, increase its size and allow it to keep strengthening. And then have it track in such a way as to devastate the most densely populated urban corridor in the U.S. The one way I could think of how it could have been worse would have been for it to hit a month earlier, when much stronger winds could have mixed down and caused more damage. But from a water/surge standpoint, it was our Katrina. It also was double the strength of the 1991 storm if you consider normal as standard sea level pressure. You almost can't talk about the two in the same sentence unless you just go by how both were formed as the combination of a hurricane and mid latitude storm.

[jm1220]

Yeah I realized after posting that it says that Sandy made landfall in NYC, that's false too.

It would have been much better for us had Sandy made landfall in NYC.

 

Then we'd be talking about the horrific impact on the same spots as 1938.

[IsentropicLift]

I keep using "Perfect Storm" to describe Sandy because it really was a perfect confluence of events to cause a huge impact. Full moon, high tide, strong west based NAO block, large hurricane in the exact spot and track to get caught up and recurved west, and then a powerful jet stream disturbance from the continental US to phase into it, increase its size and allow it to keep strengthening. And then have it track in such a way as to devastate the most densely populated urban corridor in the U.S. The one way I could think of how it could have been worse would have been for it to hit a month earlier, when much stronger winds could have mixed down and caused more damage. But from a water/surge standpoint, it was our Katrina. It also was double the strength of the 1991 storm if you consider normal as standard sea level pressure. You almost can't talk about the two in the same sentence unless you just go by how both were formed as the combination of a hurricane and mid latitude storm.

Probability says that the chances of it occurring again this millennium are very low. But we all know that sometimes the same person can win the Mega Millions JP twice.

[MJO812]

Except that hurricanes directly effect NYC more often than you think, and it's just a matter of time before something that tops Sandy swings through.

 

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/storms_hurricanehistory.shtml

 

The last "perfect storm" before Sandy was in 1991, so that was 21 years before Sandy. The phenomenon that causes storms like Sandy and the Perfect Storm 1991 happens often enough, it's the combination of that plus the track plus everything else that makes it so rare. But there are many ways NYC can get hit very hard from a landfalling hurricane. The track Sandy took though was the absolute worst case scenario.

How did the models do with the storm? I think the Euro and GGEM were the first models to show a hit to our south. I remember everyone saying that this wasn't going to happen like that. Who would have thought.

[jm1220]

 

How did the models do with the storm? I think the Euro and GGEM were the first models to show a hit to our south. I remember everyone saying that this wasn't going to happen like that. Who would have thought.

The Euro did the best and was adamant about a landfall south of NYC for days. Other models waffled and some even landfalled over E LI or New England for a number of runs. I remember thinking that if the storm made it east of 70W that a hit on Long Island was more likely because I just couldn't believe myself that it would bend back west that much, but alas it did.

 

I would have taken in a second 6"+ of rain and offshore winds vs. 1" of rain and a catastrophic surge.

[IsentropicLift]

Three days out the GFS was still looping Sandy around Cape Cod, it was the very last model to give in.

[Stormlover74]

The Euro did the best and was adamant about a landfall south of NYC for days. Other models waffled and some even landfalled over E LI or New England for a number of runs. I remember thinking that if the storm made it east of 70W that a hit on Long Island was more likely because I just couldn't believe myself that it would bend back west that much, but alas it did.

I would have taken in a second 6"+ of rain and offshore winds vs. 1" of rain and a catastrophic surge.

Its much more likely we get 10 more Irene/Gloria repeats before we see another Sandy..and those are generally overrated from NYC on west with regards to wind or surge

[IsentropicLift]

Its much more likely we get 10 more Irene/Gloria repeats before we see another Sandy..and those are generally overrated from NYC on west with regards to wind or surge

Dealing with a recurving TC or post tropical cyclone is nothing unusual in this area.

[jm1220]

Its much more likely we get 10 more Irene/Gloria repeats before we see another Sandy..and those are generally overrated from NYC on west with regards to wind or surge

Irene and supposedly Gloria (wasn't born yet for that) were overrated in Long Beach and Irene hit west of us at high tide. Gloria just about made landfall here but at low tide.

[REDMK6GLI]

Three days out the GFS was still looping Sandy around Cape Cod, it was the very last model to give in.

IIRC isnt the ECMWF a superior model when it comes to tropical systems in the atlantic region? I know it had sandy in the landfall region for several days pretty much making its crowning moment for its forecasting superiority

[forkyfork]

nyc didn't even get hurricane force gusts from the 1938 storm. the west side of recurving TCs is always underwhelming

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

nyc didn't even get hurricane force gusts from the 1938 storm. the west side of recurving TCs is always underwhelming

That's one of the worst statements you have made yet. 125mph at the top of the Empire State Building. Minimal sampling and the fact that winds increased rapidly when moving twords the center. I would put the chances of the Rockaways receiving at least hurricane force gusts (more likely sustained) at 100 percent.

[doncat]

With the heavy rains from Irene and an earlier tropical system I measured an incredible 25.03 inches of rain over a 31 day period.

[forkyfork]

That's one of the worst statements you have made yet. 125mph at the top of the Empire State Building. Minimal sampling and the fact that winds increased rapidly when moving twords the center. I would put the chances of the Rockaways receiving at least hurricane force gusts (more likely sustained) at 100 percent.

of course the top of the empire state building had high winds

central park didn't

[AvantHiatus]

of course the top of the empire state building had high winds

central park didn't

Forky, it was blocked by buildings....

[forkyfork]

sandy hook's highest gust was 70 mph

[NycStormChaser]

sandy hook's highest gust was 70 mph

Robins reef in NY harbor had higher.

[L.I.Pete]

Hi all. Maybe I should wait for the "Summer Banter Thread" for this, but I work out at Brookhaven Lab (Suffolk County), and we do a series of open houses each summer. This year, one of our "Summer Sundays" will include a tour of the National Weather Service Upton Forecast Office, which is located on our site. The date is July 27, 10 a.m. to 3 p.m.  Admission is free. So come on out if you'd like to see the NWS office!