Amped Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 That is a pretty damn cold high on the day 10 euro. Alaska blocking just doesn't want to go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 We have a trough in mid week. At least it has some cold air, highs on Wednesday only around 68 F. I gotta go buy a new winter coat This week's mild trough is yet another exhibit I'd like to present towards my argument that the summer of 2014 will be historically hot in Washington DC with numerous records falling June thru October. We are now averaging normal to above normal and cold fronts with deep troughs are cooling us to 7 degrees below average. The summer of 2014 will be at least as hot as the winter of 2013-14 was cold. Expect global warmists to appear in force on the board Winter 2013-2014 was only cold on the east coast and in the Midwest. Most of the world had an average or warmer than average winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 That is a pretty damn cold high on the day 10 euro. Alaska blocking just doesn't want to go away. LOL. Deep troughs and cold highs in mid April translate to highs of 55-60. This thread is fun and all,.and also funny with HI-Z and his OMG posts, but its hard enough to get snow in March. This year was an aberration. Snow on April 10? Uh no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 LOL. Deep troughs and cold highs in mid April translate to highs of 55-60. This thread is fun and all,.and also funny with HI-Z and his OMG posts, but its hard enough to get snow in March. This year was an aberration. Snow on April 10? Uh no. Last year must have been a major aberration then. I had 60% of my total snow in March. But I am certainly hopeful that snow is done for about 7 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Last year must have been a major aberration then. I had 60% of my total snow in March. But I am certainly hopeful that snow is done for about 7 months. Most of us didn't get much snow at all last winter, so yeah that one event in late March probably was about 60% of my 9.5 inch total as well. This March was a major aberration, with places on the coastal plain of SNJ and DE getting 15-20". But I think you get my point...outside of the mountains, snow this time of year is very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Yeah. I'm just doing this for fun at this point. E2 has a widespread swaft of 8"+ throughout VA up towards NJ on day 9. 5/50 members have a trace or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 Huge GEFS support for this window. Everything is there for a threat, not using Analogs: 1. Retrograding helps boost ridge in West 2. NAO signal peaks early April and retrogrades with 50-50 low / cyclonic wave breaking in Atlantic. 3. Split stratosphere supports NAO and holds cold air source in Canada. I love this potential, I just hate the date. This came down to bad luck, basically, and me not factoring in the higher potential for s/w to wrap-up/mature quickly within the long wave trough (the long wave is actually winter-like in size). So, clearly, this method is meant mainly for the winter months. The PNA and NAO did cooperate to some extent but it led to the first 2 s/w cutting way inland and not leaving enough room for the last s/w. Low development does attempt to get going along front Tues-Wed with the final wave but that's no noreaster and a clear bust. Sorry guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 This came down to bad luck, basically, and me not factoring in the higher potential for s/w to wrap-up/mature quickly within the long wave trough (the long wave is actually winter-like in size). So, clearly, this method is meant mainly for the winter months. The PNA and NAO did cooperate to some extent but it led to the first 2 s/w cutting way inland and not leaving enough room for the last s/w. Low development does attempt to get going along front Tues-Wed with the final wave but that's no noreaster and a clear bust. Sorry guys... I'm grateful for your bust, and I usually would only say that to a lady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 This would be kind of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 This would be kind of cold. That wouldn't be that unusual. I think it was 24 last year on the 21st or 22nd of April in Winchester and had freezing temps on May 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 This came down to bad luck, basically, and me not factoring in the higher potential for s/w to wrap-up/mature quickly within the long wave trough (the long wave is actually winter-like in size). So, clearly, this method is meant mainly for the winter months. The PNA and NAO did cooperate to some extent but it led to the first 2 s/w cutting way inland and not leaving enough room for the last s/w. Low development does attempt to get going along front Tues-Wed with the final wave but that's no noreaster and a clear bust. Sorry guys... You sent poor Jeb over the edge. He's now lost all faith in winters and is preparing for a scorched earth apocolypse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 That wouldn't be that unusual. I think it was 24 last year on the 21st or 22nd of April in Winchester and had freezing temps on May 14. Record low at DCA that day is 29F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Eurrrrro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Mother of God. 12z ECMWF between Day 7 and 10. It's a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Mother of God. 12z ECMWF between Day 7 and 10. It's a monster. congrats winterwxluvr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 one of the very few ways to get an april hecs would be to have a slow rolled bowling ball up the coast and sprawling 1030-1040hp from nw-ne above us. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Lock it up and post it on facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 It would be kinda funny for Ji's facebook page if it snows. He'll have to have a resurrection GEM has the same idea as the euro but doesn't close h5 off nearly as quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Lock it up and post it on facebook. done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 It would be kinda funny for Ji's facebook page if it snows. He'll have to have a resurrection GEM has the same idea as the euro but doesn't close h5 off nearly as quick. already posted. Cant wait to see what people say lol. i actually looked at the euro today to see what weather might be like on easter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 lolzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 This is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 God nooooooo. Though would be cool to see baseball in the snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 what does it tell you though that models can still print out snow in mid april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 congrats winterwxluvr ecmwf_tsnow_ma_41.png I'm pretty sure at this point he'd rather have 95 and humid over another flake of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 what does it tell you though that models can still print out snow in mid aprilWe shouldn't be looking at them in that range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 We shouldn't be looking at them in that range? if we had that mindset, then we wouldnt of seen the Feb and March storms with long lead times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 haha here are some QPF #s for the 12z ECMWF Day 7-10: DCA: 4.2" IAD: 4.7" BWI: 3.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 We shouldn't be looking at them in that range? Inside of day 10 is the new short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 haha here are some QPF #s for the 12z ECMWF Day 7-10: DCA: 4.2" IAD: 4.7" BWI: 3.7" terrible ratios then. Im out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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