Ian Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 No offense but we're talking about an op that's too warm 9 days out. Even in winter talking about specific accum at this range is kinda silly.. let alone April 8 or whatever it is. Plus Dulles averages 0.3" in April, probably including some big rainers that dropped a little bit of snow on the end. DC has also seen light snow on the cherry blossoms in 2 recent years and no one really talks about that. Even giving climo a huge pad the most likely "snowy" event is probably like a dusting or so in the city. And while yesterday was fun it showed how very hard it is to get snow to stick in any widespread fashion outside elevation this late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 No offense but we're talking about an op that's too warm 9 days out. Even in winter talking about specific accum at this range is kinda silly.. let alone April 8 or whatever it is. Plus Dulles averages 0.3" in April, probably including some big rainers that dropped a little bit of snow on the end. DC has also seen light snow on the cherry blossoms in 2 recent years and no one really talks about that. Even giving climo a huge pad the most likely "snowy" event is probably like a dusting or so in the city. I don't think anyone is reading the model verbatim at this distance out, we sure are not but the potential pattern and signal is something that needs to be watched. It triggered an interest, that is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 climo says no, but this season has been weird in some ways. Certainly wouldn't be shocked to see folks west of the fall line get something. 95 and East and in both cities, I'd say the chances are fairly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 I'm always weary of the "Black Swan"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 No offense but we're talking about an op that's too warm 9 days out. Even in winter talking about specific accum at this range is kinda silly.. let alone April 8 or whatever it is. Plus Dulles averages 0.3" in April, probably including some big rainers that dropped a little bit of snow on the end. DC has also seen light snow on the cherry blossoms in 2 recent years and no one really talks about that. Even giving climo a huge pad the most likely "snowy" event is probably like a dusting or so in the city. And while yesterday was fun it showed how very hard it is to get snow to stick in any widespread fashion outside elevation this late.Our average high is almost 70 by the time this storm may roll around.Oops, more like 65/66 but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 climo says no, but this season has been weird in some ways. Certainly wouldn't be shocked to see folks west of the fall line get something. 95 and East and in both cities, I'd say the chances are fairly low. I think we get bogged down in climo conversations that aren't even terribly realistic about what it is. This isn't about it not being able to snow in April or something. Clearly it can. But even the bounds of climo make it extra difficult by this point to get anything of note. 2-3" in DC would be the biggest April snow in almost 100 years. Could it happen? Sure anything can happen.. but hedging toward climo will beat a d9 op like 8 out of 10 times... and as good as this day 9 op is, it's still basically a cold rain storm. Obv there is support beyond that.. though even in perfect storm scenario we're going to need perfect timing in the lowlands. Getting April snow in the mtns is much less interesting an event even if not necessarily an every year thing in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 I think we get bogged down in climo conversations that aren't even terribly realistic about what it is. This isn't about it not being able to snow in April or something. Clearly it can. But even the bounds of climo make it extra difficult by this point to get anything of note. 2-3" in DC would be the biggest April snow in almost 100 years. Could it happen? Sure anything can happen.. but hedging toward climo will beat a d9 op like 8 out of 10 times... and as good as this day 9 op is, it's still basically a cold rain storm. Obv there is support beyond that.. though even in perfect storm scenario we're going to need perfect timing in the lowlands. Getting Aptril snow in the mtns is much less interesting an event even if not necessarily an every year thing in these parts. Very good points here, Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BHweather Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 It kind of did snow outside of elevation yesterday... saw a solid 2" out in Dickerson, MD along the Potomac-- elevation is only like 300 feet there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BHweather Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 granted it is N/W and west of fall line, but the elevation is low there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 It kind of did snow outside of elevation yesterday... saw a solid 2" out in Dickerson, MD along the Potomac-- elevation is only like 300 feet there. Well I said in a widespread fashion. Yesterday was at least somewhat impressive but most of the accumulation was in a fairly narrow band. Neither DC or Dulles got official accumulation. Plus it was like -25 departure in the afternoon which is about the max we've been able to pull all season and is probably about the max we can pull. There is some breathing room at night or early morning. It won't keep snowing into May despite climo being beaten a few times lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 A surprise we've been watching for 2 weeks? Could be a cold rain storm too or a event in the hills no one will talk about a week later. Exactly. As nice as the surprise snow was yesterday. We are getting too late for anything very meaningful at this point. As modeled it is snow out here. But its not like its gonna last regardless. Edit: 2 more inches would tie the 2nd snowiest winter ever here. So F it. bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Anything can happen at night. Starting or carrying thru daylight is really hard. More later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Anything can happen at night.Starting or carrying thru daylight is really hard.More later Can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Lol euro day 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Lol euro day 9-10 Very informative post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Very informative post. Can't wait for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Very informative post. I'll expand. 850's @ -4 and mid 30's surface @ 8pm on Fri the 11th: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 I'm in too. We need this storm. I want to see every flower crushed under the weight of a foot of heavy wet snow and frozen into solid chunks of dead vegetation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 I'm in too. We need this storm. I want to see every flower crushed under the weight of a foot of heavy wet snow and frozen into solid chunks of dead vegetation. But.....what about the cherry blossoms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 People in Dale City stated that we had half an inch of snow on grass and on car tops at the height of Sunday's snow, before it changed back to rain. What are the odds that I would be busy right at that peak and I missed the peak accums in Dale City? All I ever personally witnessed last Sunday was when the snow was just starting to stick to grass and to cars. This has sure been one ANOMALOUS winter!!! Oh wait, it is spring now. Just amazing the signaling! Could we get an April snow this year? Winter just LOVES the Mid Atlantic in 2013-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Awesome storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Too early to be in a "bullseye" per say? I hate to see this thing shift off towards the east. GFS 6z looks like a field day for snow/storm bros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Awesome storm. we were under a warning and it crapped out here..IAD got 3"....NW of Baltimore 3"+...but nothing here..I got maybe a cartopper in Silver Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 we were under a warning and it crapped out here..IAD got 3"....NW of Baltimore 3"+...but nothing here..I got maybe a cartopper in Silver Spring I was actually east of the main def band. Had about 6" of pure glop, but had some tree damage with it. This has to be one of the best winters in terms of longevity for you guys. Snow from Dec through late March. I understand other seasons may have had more snow, but there is something to be said about longevity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 I was actually east of the main def band. Had about 6" of pure glop, but had some tree damage with it. This has to be one of the best winters in terms of longevity for you guys. Snow from Dec through late March. I understand other seasons may have had more snow, but there is something to be said about longevity. Most of us got 1-2" on 11/14, and there aren't too many seasons that got more snow...lol....it is #3 at DCA going back to 1888 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Most of us got 1-2" on 11/14, and there aren't too many seasons that got more snow...lol....it is #3 at DCA going back to 1888 I forgot about that....the areas to my south had 1-2" as well. Sorry, dumb comment about the other snowier seasons...lol. I was thinking '09-'10 in my head because I know others have stated how this season can't beat that....but you have to weigh in the 4 months or so of winter you guys have had, especially just west and north of DC proper. Winter grading obviously is subjective, but I would think that factors in significantly. Hopefully this month redeemed the brutal bust of last March. Some sweet revenge for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Damn euro and it's blizzard of 96 setup. Where was this 3 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Damn euro and it's blizzard of 96 setup. Where was this 3 weeks ago. On the Euro hour 704? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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