WEATHER53 Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Can it snow again????? When does it not snow. Recap-Few sleet pellets started mixing in around 12:30 but then at 3:50 the snow mixed in and by 4:10 it was all snow. Currently 33.5* with moderate snow, 1/2" on grassy and snowbard and street just starting to slush up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Euro no longer shows any real blocking in central Canada like it did on the 28th. However it still establishes a strong ridge in western Canada around 240hrs so there is is still the possibility of another cold outbreak. Not seeing a snowstorm except for the day 6 thump in New England. Severe outbreak in the Tenesee Valley and Gulf coast still looks like a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 I thought the gfs looked very interesting around april 8-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 31, 2014 Author Share Posted March 31, 2014 Again, all the warm talk last week was premature as NWP has trended significantly colder after the inland-runner. A -NAO to -EPO transition mid-month will keep the warmth shorter in-duration through 4/20, despite flat SE ridge look. There is still very much a nor'easter threat 4/7-10. While this one will likely not get below 960mb like the last one, lol, it will likely be more impacting to our coastal communities. And yes....snow is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Again, all the warm talk last week was premature as NWP has trended significantly colder after the inland-runner. A -NAO to -EPO transition mid-month will keep the warmth shorter in-duration through 4/20, despite flat SE ridge look. There is still very much a nor'easter threat 4/7-10. While this one will likely not get below 960mb like the last one, lol, it will likely be more impacting to our coastal communities. And yes....snow is possible. I posted about this in the April thread. Very strong coastal signal on the euro ensembles last night. Rain verbatim but a lot of it. Some members in the 2-3" liquid range and almost an inch on the means. h5 anom mean panels definitely look supportive of a big storm. Our climo down here will fight hard against any snow chances. Maybe something on the tail if it bombs but the period is interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 31, 2014 Author Share Posted March 31, 2014 I posted about this in the April thread. Very strong coastal signal on the euro ensembles last night. Rain verbatim but a lot of it. Some members in the 2-3" liquid range and almost an inch on the means. h5 anom mean panels definitely look supportive of a big storm. Our climo down here will fight hard against any snow chances. Maybe something on the tail if it bombs but the period is interesting for sure. Yes, what everyone has to keep in mind is that it is freakin spring. Most major snow events in late-season have at least SOME rain. Look at what happened yesterday! So, the fact that we have a dynamic, wet system with cold air to work with is all you can ask for in April. Then it will come down to short-range details. I'm worried about coastal flooding this go-around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Yes, what everyone has to keep in mind is that it is freakin spring. Most major snow events in late-season have at least SOME rain. Look at what happened yesterday! So, the fact that we have a dynamic, wet system with cold air to work with is all you can ask for in April. Then it will come down to short-range details. I'm worried about coastal flooding this go-around. for a 9 day lead, this is a pretty big signal even with inherent spread. I'm interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Can't wait for more cold rain. At least the blossoms won't get torched off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 31, 2014 Author Share Posted March 31, 2014 There's no way we can predict any type of accumulating snow at long leads when you lose climo. But, we definitely have a good first step here in a signal for something that could produce an anomalous snow. How this manifests could range anywhere from a slow-moving cut-off to a quick hitting nor'easter that clips us. But all ensemble trends are definitely signaling this time frame for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 There's no way we can predict any type of accumulating snow at long leads when you lose climo. But, we definitely have a good first step here in a signal for something that could produce an anomalous snow. How this manifests could range anywhere from a slow-moving cut-off to a quick hitting nor'easter that clips us. But all ensemble trends are definitely signaling this time frame for something. Exactly. I would expect our only slim chance to come on the tail. It's interesting to see the ops having the storm at this lead. GFS op has shown a coastal solution 3 runs in a row. GGEM showed a coastal solution @ 0z last night. At the very least, the window holds promise for a decent to significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 OMG, anyone see this?! free image host Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Talk about a signal, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 OMG, anyone see this?! free image host There is a real signal now on the 12z OP GFS for a winter storm next week...especially just west of 95. It showed up on the 6z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Higher elevations a bigger threat for sure but the potential is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 the ops was pretty nice.. tho not particularly cold.. well cold for snow.. cold for april sure. for most of the event. maybe ends as snow everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 EURO looks like its going to blow up here.... photo share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 the ops was pretty nice.. tho not particularly cold.. well cold for snow.. cold for april sure. for most of the event. maybe ends as snow everywhere. gfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif 850s drop to -3 toward the end. It would really be impressive if this panned out with the Cherry Blossom festival. Scenario would be written in a children's textbook somewhere :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 EURO looks like its going to blow up here.... photo share big ole lakes low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 850s drop to -3 toward the end. It would really be impressive if this panned out with the Cherry Blossom festival. Scenario would be written in a children's textbook somewhere :-) eh, might be a little wet snow to end with temps above freezing as is. even if climo burned in march no way i'm getting excited about april snow till it's like an hour from starting.. and after yesterday maybe an hour after it starts instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 eh, might be a little wet snow to end with temps above freezing as is. even if climo burned in march no way i'm getting excited about april snow till it's like an hour from starting.. and after yesterday maybe an hour after it starts instead. Could be the surprise event lol. We will see. Still too early and ground temps will be way up there but this one would be talked about for a long time if it happened. Big If though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Eff this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 There's no way we can predict any type of accumulating snow at long leads when you lose climo. But, we definitely have a good first step here in a signal for something that could produce an anomalous snow. How this manifests could range anywhere from a slow-moving cut-off to a quick hitting nor'easter that clips us. But all ensemble trends are definitely signaling this time frame for something. ...and the signal has been strong and consistent for over a week now. It's hard to ignore this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Quote: EURO looks like its going to blow up here.... Did you mean: EURO looks like its going to blow, up here OR Euro looks like its going to blow up, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 The last 8 weeks have been anything but climo. Apart from intermittent periods of shortwave ridging and warm ups there really isn't any signal that this active pattern and favorable storm track ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Could be the surprise event lol. We will see. Still too early and ground temps will be way up there but this one would be talked about for a long time if it happened. Big If though...A surprise we've been watching for 2 weeks? Could be a cold rain storm too or a event in the hills no one will talk about a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 The last 8 weeks have been anything but climo. Apart from intermittent periods of shortwave ridging and warm ups there really isn't any signal that this active pattern and favorable storm track ends.Climo matters in that we probably can't get a -35 high. If it is at night and perfect maybe not as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 A surprise we've been watching for 2 weeks? Could be a cold rain storm too or a event in the hills no one will talk about a week later. Snow going into mid April isn't a common occurrence and that's what I'm getting at. If the event turned out to be colder and it snowed during the Cherry Blossom festival it would be talked about and people would remember this winter for a long time. Not a matter of whether I think it will happen or not just that if it did happen this late in the season it would be an impressive event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 12z GFS looks interesting. I'd wager that with the current trend this season, climo isn't the most dominant factor. I like our chances, even if it 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 12z GFS looks interesting. I'd wager that with the current trend this season, climo isn't the most dominant factor. I like our chances, even if it 2-3 inches. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/03/april-9-15-multiple-potentially.html This guy has been on top of analyzing potential east coast storms this year. Does interesting analysis of the link between Japan storms and a east coast storm. Thinks the same will occur as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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