Heisy Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Low pressure placement looks way different, ridge not nearly as pronounced. But there are some similarities. Still 10 days away, this winter I wouldn't believe it if it were 2 days away. Lol, obviously the placement of the exact Highs & Lows and the pronouncement of the ridge isn't going to be perfect, but the features are overall in similar places....Do you expect analog pattern to look 1000% identical? I posted it as a joke though anyway, but just found it funny how you initially didn't see "any" similarities until Ian posted he saw some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancostorm35 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Lol, obviously the placement of the exact Highs & Lows and the pronouncement of the ridge isn't going to be perfect, but the features are overall in similar places....Do you expect analog pattern to look 1000% identical? I posted it as a joke though anyway, but just found it funny how you initially didn't see "any" similarities until Ian posted he saw some. Dude chill out,my god. Like amped said it's hard to distinguish cape cod from ocean city on those maps. It's all in good fun. We all understand the point you were trying to make, and of course the placement of the highs and lows are not going to be exact. I'm not as knowledgable as most posters on this forum as far as interpreting maps so I shouldn't have really commented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Heh...12z GEM holds course on the wackiness on April 5th and 6th. Not that timing matters at this distance, but this run brings much of the heavy stuff during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Some more crazy 12z GGEM pics. Looks like less ice and rain, more snow than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 south trend!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 south trend!! cmc_snow_acc_washdc_41 (1).png what crazy about that pic (in addition to the date, of course) is that snowfall matches up well "proportionately" with how most of the big events went this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Euro has no inkling of a snow threat in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Euro has no inkling of a snow threat in that period. Right where we want it at this lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Right where we want it at this lead persistent trough over Asia day 10 on Euro....no lasting heat on the EC anytime soon, warmish rain at best http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014032712!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Euro has no inkling of a snow threat in that period. Ensembles no help either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 HM talkin' April snow - man this winter may NEVER EVER end. HM talkin' April snows in DC and N VA prompted me to think immediately of THIS hit from 1980. I don't know why but the song just came to mind. Man we really need to have a massive party celebrating this winter! We'd put Mardi Gras to shame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormForce Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 missed this somehow. phone is dead again. will after work. Ian get one of these: http://www.amazon.com/EasyAcc®-Brilliant-Ultra-Slim-Bluetooth-Smartphones/dp/B00H9BEC8E/ref=sr_1_8?s=wireless&ie=UTF8&qid=1395962879&sr=1-8&keywords=battery+backup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Ian get one of these: http://www.amazon.com/EasyAcc®-Brilliant-Ultra-Slim-Bluetooth-Smartphones/dp/B00H9BEC8E/ref=sr_1_8?s=wireless&ie=UTF8&qid=1395962879&sr=1-8&keywords=battery+backup They make one for 'stupid' phones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Anyone have an explanation for the 6Z NAM? http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KIAD&model=nam&time=2014032806&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 The nam doesn't have an explanation for the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 The nam doesn't have an explanation for the nam 12Z agrees with you, cold bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 The trough that plows through the C USA into the Northeast next weekend / week may possibly set up the last wintry threat. I still think 4/4-5 needs watching (the low that sets up threat toward 4/7-10) for the interior. Before the 4/7-10 event arrives here, it will likely be a prolific severe weather producer. Tropical forcing, analogs etc. all it's a "go" in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I really wish we could get a legit (i.e. 1 inch or more) early April snow event in my lifetime here. That might even bump the winter ranking up to #3. It was a lot more frequent about 80-100 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The trough that plows through the C USA into the Northeast next weekend / week may possibly set up the last wintry threat. I still think 4/4-5 needs watching (the low that sets up threat toward 4/7-10) for the interior. Before the 4/7-10 event arrives here, it will likely be a prolific severe weather producer. Tropical forcing, analogs etc. all it's a "go" in that department. I like the springtime pattern although it's not as cold, the Jet is much weaker and there is more potential for cutoffs and slow moving systems. The 12zGFS is interesting day7-10 especially north of NYC. 12z GGEM has a suppressed system day 7 followed by an apps runner day 10 with lots of rain. It's still an interesting 10 days even if the wintery and severe miss our backyard.. The GWO looks to have died down, and MJO is in Phase 2, so I'm interested to know where the forcing is coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 D7-10 definitely worth keeping casual eye on. Euro keeps the primary strong and west but there's a pretty good wall of hp in se canada. It's low confidence/low probability but a couple ingredients are seem to be consistently there. We haven't had a good mid 30's rain for a while either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Two days in the 30s at the end of the run. Sweet. Well, one has counterfeit midnight highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 NOW we get a slow moving, cutoff low. NOW we get all the qpf - RAIN RAIN RAIN. Congrats to the mountains though, as colder air wraps around this puppy - some mountain locales will get 10 inches of fresh spring snow. I'll enjoy my 3 to 5 inches of rain MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW BECOMING OCCLUDED ASIT MOVES TOWARD THE DELMARVA ERY SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILLSLOW DOWN AND HUG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLYSTACKED AND CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES. NW FLOW AROUND THEBACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO THE MTS LATE TNGT ANDON SUNDAY. 12Z NAM/GFS MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER COMPARED TOEARLIER RUNS WITH REGARDS TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR. BUFKITPROFILES SUPPORT RAIN MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOWALONG THE WRN HIGHLANDS AND ALLEGHENY FRONT DURING THE ERY MRNG HRS.A DEFORMATION BAND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL LOW WILL PRODUCE APERIOD OF MOD TO HVY SNOW ON SUN IN THESE AREAS. A WINTER WXADVISORY WAS ISSUED WITH 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED. FCST SNOWFALLACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREAS ARE LOWER THAN THE GFS/NAMAMOUNTS AND CLOSER TO THE 09Z SREF MEAN. A CONSERVATIVE FCST WASMADE WITH REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THECHANGEOVER...EXACT LOCATION OF THE DEFORMATION BAND AND WARM GROUNDTEMPS. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE MTS SUNAFTN...WITH EVEN LGT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGES. March showers bring loads of April flowers. Damn I hate spring I wanted a cutoff low SO EFFIN BAD a few days ago! DAMN DAMN DAMN DAMN man it makes me want to cry RIVERS over all the rain I am going to get. DAMN DAMN DAMN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 IF the NAM is right AND If it comes down hard enough in the North Central MD Highlands, it could be enough for a blizzard warning. Winds will meet criteria and it could fall below 1/4mi for 3 hrs. Borderline, but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 IF the NAM is right AND If it comes down hard enough in the North Central MD Highlands, it could be enough for a blizzard warning. Winds will meet criteria and it could fall below 1/4mi for 3 hrs. Borderline, but possible. Dude way to many IFs there in that post. If only it weren't the NAM, and if it wasn't Spring, then it might be winter... Blizzard warning? lol. It likely wont even snow at all in those areas you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Dude way to many IFs there in that post. If only it weren't the NAM, and if it wasn't Spring, then it might be winter... Blizzard warning? lol. It likely wont even snow at all in those areas you mentioned. 6" in Davis, WV and still snowing according to reports. 4"+ in Garrett County, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 6" in Davis, WV and still snowing according to reports. 4"+ in Garrett County, MD. Completely different world to north central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Completely different world to north central MD. True enough. A very different day than yesterday, regardless. 40, raining and windy here - yesterday was spring like, this is more mid-November like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 True enough. A very different day than yesterday, regardless. 40, raining and windy here - yesterday was spring like, this is more mid-November like. In fact, just as I post this - it is now sleeting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wlantry Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Moderate to heavy snow falling as I type in Colesville, MD. I'm shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.