Ji Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 So DCA hasn't seen an inch or greater in April since 1924? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/dcasnow.txt were due dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 26, 2014 Author Share Posted March 26, 2014 nope. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/04/is_april_snow_in_dc_rarer_than.html Nice article, thanks. So, basically, there is no MR to LR predictability for DCA April snow other than our computer models...and even then...lol. All we can say at this range is at least we have a shot at a <1" April this year, as rare as they have become also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 26, 2014 Author Share Posted March 26, 2014 were due dude lol, yeah really. Is this something where DCA's April stats reflect the immediate burbs as well or is this just a DC-only thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Nice article, thanks. So, basically, there is no MR to LR predictability for DCA April snow other than our computer models...and even then...lol. All we can say at this range is at least we have a shot at a <1" April this year, as rare as they have become also. DC has more snow in March of this year than they did in the past 2 winters combined...so cant rule anything out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 April Fool's Foot Surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 lol, yeah really. Is this something where DCA's April stats reflect the immediate burbs as well or is this just a DC-only thing? dulles only goes back to 1963 but we had a few inches in April 96(big shock right) and then April 1990 4 inches and April 1982. Thats it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 lol, yeah really. Is this something where DCA's April stats reflect the immediate burbs as well or is this just a DC-only thing? Dulles has a 0.3" avg in April, but even there anything 1"+ is like a once in 10-15 year event http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/iad/Iadapr.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 26, 2014 Author Share Posted March 26, 2014 DC has more snow in March of this year than they did in the past 2 winters combined...so cant rule anything out lol Just amazing and not all at the same time. The last couple of winters were some of the worst ever for snow. dulles only goes back to 1963 but we had a few inches in April 96(big shock right) and then April 1990 4 inches and April 1982. Thats it While crappy, that's way better than "since 1924." lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 GEFS show some support for snow on the tail of departing lp sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 KLYH has been well above normal like 3 of last Marches.. We had a small amount in 10 and 11, not even sure if it was over a trace. 10 in 09, 9.5 in 13 9.4 in 14 29.1 /6 4.85 Normal is like 3.1 Edit to say we had .8 in 10, .2 in 11 and .8 in 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 April is the new March and March is the new winter.. so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 April is the new March and March is the new winter.. so who knows. It's funny how I recall you saying a few times we've lost out on snow in March, and had support with climo numbers. Maybe on the upswing. PDO for the win?? We can't quantify AGW on one local climate or just a few yeaRS, but we've simply had better late season patterns as of late, starting with 2009 for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 lol cmc_snow_acc_washdc_41.png Given the seasonal south trend of systems this year, I like where I sit at this point. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 to put it in context here are my records of April snow going back 20 years (1994) at this locale. 4/9/96 - 2" 4/9/00 - 3" 4/17/01 - 0.25 4/7/03 - 0.5" 4/1/11 - 1.5" There have been additional snow squalls over the years which never amounted to anything also and was never noted by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 GEFS show some support for snow on the tail of departing lp sunday night. Just took a look at the deterministic euro and gfs. Euro (00z) looks more warm sectored with showers, possibly t-storms Saturday into Saturday night. Interestingly the 12z GFS has a CAD in place with closed upper low and surface reflection to the S-SE. 850's cool off and there could very well be something wintry on the backside especially west of I-95. Interesting its in the GEFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 It's funny how I recall you saying a few times we've lost out on snow in March, and had support with climo numbers. Maybe on the upswing. PDO for the win?? We can't quantify AGW on one local climate or just a few yeaRS, but we've simply had better late season patterns as of late, starting with 2009 for my area. Maybe HM can add to this but I think part of warmer winters the last decade has a lot to do with the coldest air in the NH favoring russia/china/europe and not over here. Well placed blocking can make us cold and has in years like 09-10 but cold continental air vs arctic air are very different. The main core of cold air and pv was mostly locked into central and eastern Canada all year. We managed some crazy anomalies at times due to the pv being displaced southward without relying on our old favorite -nao. Other things like the -epo helped a ton of course but having the cold stuff on our side was really the single most important ingredient to having a lot of cold to go with our precip. In the back of my mind I keep wondering if the tables turned for a while. Some sort of general pattern change that will keep the coldest air on our side for a few years in a row. Things have a way of evening out and during the last 10 years, europe/russia definitely had much more cold on the means than the US. There were plenty of streaky cold winters in the 60's/70's/80's. I wasn't on the EC for the 90's but I know there were a couple really cold ones. 2004-2013 was pretty weak on average with cold winters. Even the crazy -ao periods we've recently had didn't deliver so many single digits and teens like we saw this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 It's funny how I recall you saying a few times we've lost out on snow in March, and had support with climo numbers. Maybe on the upswing. PDO for the win?? We can't quantify AGW on one local climate or just a few yeaRS, but we've simply had better late season patterns as of late, starting with 2009 for my area. Well that was all very DC centric, and DC is more on the line than places west to begin with. I think there's little doubt that the city and probably areas east of the fall line have been having more trouble on the margins in recent history than in past history. In places where it was colder to start I'm not sure that's the case (at least yet, if warming continued). We have had some decent March tallies in recent times.. though it seems to either be cold/snowy or torchy in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 stop talking about it and maybe it wont happen! also, text me back missed this somehow. phone is dead again. will after work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 What do you guys think? The EURO today looks really similar to 4/1/97.... Damn close to me.. EURO upload img 97 free uploader Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 lol You can't look at that map and not see similarities, commmmmon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancostorm35 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 You can't look at that map and not see similarities, commmmmon.Not very similar at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 You can't look at that map and not see similarities, commmmmon. sure some but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancostorm35 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Low pressure placement looks way different, ridge not nearly as pronounced. But there are some similarities. Still 10 days away, this winter I wouldn't believe it if it were 2 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Snow solutions always verify and heat busts. Models could show a 590dm closed se ridge @ d10 but end up a palm sunday redux. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 lol i love seeing closed ULL's 1000 miles north of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Merely a simpleton, but if it's going to snow 2+ in April at Dulles and 1+ at national this is the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 i love seeing closed ULL's 1000 miles north of me South trend cannot be denied this year. I would feel more comfortable if it was 1100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Those Continental Maps do make Cape Cod look close to Ocean City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Not very similar at all Wow, really? You must be looking at a totally different map...Obviously specifics will be dif, but overall we have lower than normal heights over N Canada, the lower heights around Alaska match up pretty well, theres a trough out west, ULL over the NE....Obviously I was just comparing it as a joke, but I love how you cant see "any" similarities...you gotta be blind or dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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