IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 The 12z NAM puts the heaviest rain on Monday night over northeastern PA, that's a pretty good indication that in reality it will fall directly on top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Is it possible that increased UHI or some other factor at LGA has also contributed to the discrepancy in relative number of 90 degree days between the sites? Not much change in UHI over the last 20 or 30 years at NYC/LGA/EWR. But the growth of the vegetation too close to the Central Park ASOS is why the high temperature readings have diminished relative to the means there. Any grass or vegetation within 100 feet of the sensor should be less than ten inches in height. http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 The 06z DGEX was really wet for Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 The 12z NAM puts the heaviest rain on Monday night over northeastern PA, that's a pretty good indication that in reality it will fall directly on top of us. why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 why? Because the NAM is always over amped at that range and all of the other models focus the heaviest rain over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Because the NAM is always over amped at that range and all of the other models focus the heaviest rain over us. How will you enjoy the heavy rain monday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 How will you enjoy the heavy rain monday night? Where did I say that I would be enjoying it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 We are working on the longest mostly +NAO run in a decade or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 For those grasping to winter for dear life the Euro has a marginal setup days 8-9 for wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Not much change in UHI over the last 20 or 30 years at NYC/LGA/EWR. But the growth of the vegetation too close to the Central Park ASOS is why the high temperature readings have diminished relative to the means there. Any grass or vegetation within 100 feet of the sensor should be less than ten inches in height. http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html It is as you say it is: http://www.ofcm.gov/siting/text/a-cover.htm 2.6 TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SENSORS. The temperature and dew point sensors will be mounted so that the aspirator intake is 5 ± 1 feet (1.5 ± 0.3 meters) above ground level or 2 feet (0.6 meters) above the average maximum snow depth, whichever is higher. Five feet (1.5 meters) above ground is the preferred height. The sensors will be protected from radiation from the sun, sky, earth, and any other surrounding objects but at the same time be adequately ventilated. The sensors will be installed in such a position as to ensure that measurements are representative of the free air circulating in the locality and not influenced by artificial conditions, such as large buildings, cooling towers, and expanses of concrete and tarmac. Any grass and vegetation within 100 feet (30 meters) of the sensor should be clipped to height of about 10 inches (25 centimeters) or less. It is not hard to imagine why clipping the growth in an NYC park to that height over a 200 foot wide area would be problematic. Only solution would be to move it to a meadow area which may be just as problematic. On the other hand, how well have the airport ASOS sites adhered to the italicized portion of the paragraph above? The implication that I am finding most interesting is that green spaces (and green roofs) might actually have some promise for cutting back the UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Because the NAM is always over amped at that range and all of the other models focus the heaviest rain over us. Not always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 It is as you say it is: http://www.ofcm.gov/siting/text/a-cover.htm 2.6 TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SENSORS. The temperature and dew point sensors will be mounted so that the aspirator intake is 5 ± 1 feet (1.5 ± 0.3 meters) above ground level or 2 feet (0.6 meters) above the average maximum snow depth, whichever is higher. Five feet (1.5 meters) above ground is the preferred height. The sensors will be protected from radiation from the sun, sky, earth, and any other surrounding objects but at the same time be adequately ventilated. The sensors will be installed in such a position as to ensure that measurements are representative of the free air circulating in the locality and not influenced by artificial conditions, such as large buildings, cooling towers, and expanses of concrete and tarmac. Any grass and vegetation within 100 feet (30 meters) of the sensor should be clipped to height of about 10 inches (25 centimeters) or less. It is not hard to imagine why clipping the growth in an NYC park to that height over a 200 foot wide area would be problematic. Only solution would be to move it to a meadow area which may be just as problematic. On the other hand, how well have the airport ASOS sites adhered to the italicized portion of the paragraph above? The implication that I am finding most interesting is that green spaces (and green roofs) might actually have some promise for cutting back the UHI. Yeah, the time to have thought about relocating Central Park site to a more open section of the park would have been back when the new ASOS equipment was put in. But airports are more representative of the temperatures that the majority of people in NYC and the Newark areas actually experience since place like Central Park are a slightly cooler oasis in the urban landscape. To me the actual NYC temperature is what you experience coming up the steps out of Penn Station onto 7th or 8th avenues a really hot day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Not always. 999,999 times out of a million it is. Plus it's completely on its own. Even the latest SREF's clobber NNJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 999,999 times out of a million it is. Plus it's completely on its own. Even the latest SREF's clobber NNJ and NYC. Has the NAM been run a million times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 999,999 times out of a million it is. Plus it's completely on its own. Even the latest SREF's clobber NNJ and NYC. No it doesn't. It looks just like the GFS/Euro. About 1" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Has the NAM been run a million times? no, not unless they had it running back in the 14th century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 No it doesn't. It looks just like the GFS/Euro. About 1" of rain. The mean is 1.25"+ with a 1.50"+ bullseye over NE PA. It's a low resolution mean. Pretty much a given that totals would be greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Just like I thought, several really juiced up members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Yeah, the time to have thought about relocating Central Park site to a more open section of the park would have been back when the new ASOS equipment was put in. But airports are more representative of the temperatures that the majority of people in NYC and the Newark areas actually experience since place like Central Park are a slightly cooler oasis in the urban landscape. To me the actual NYC temperature is what you experience coming up the steps out of Penn Station onto 7th or 8th avenues a really hot day. Midtown is an disgusting, fetid sauna on hot days. Just deplorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 And the NAM caves, shocker. 1.75"+ bullseye over Morris/Warren/Sussex counties and the Poconos with the heaviest rains still over northern sections of this sub-forum at that hour. Doesn't include today's/tonight's rain PWAT's are over 1.00" area wide by hour 78. This is going to be another super soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Midtown is an disgusting, fetid sauna on hot days. Just deplorable. This is why wealthy New Yorkers started buying homes out in the Hamptons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Midtown is an disgusting, fetid sauna on hot days. Just deplorable. And the heat coming up out of the subway vents is an extra added bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Where did I say that I would be enjoying it? What happen to my inch of rain u promised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 What happen to my inch of rain u promised? Getting a very heavy downpour now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Getting a very heavy downpour now Just had one as well 10 mins ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 After the rain Monday night, Euro and GFS us getting warm sectored into lower to middle 60s on Tuesday. The Euro also has upper 60s to near 70 next Friday, with WNW winds. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Hate on it all you want, but the DGEX has been all over this pattern. It had Monday's upcoming rainstorm at 192 hours out, and also has been consistent with 70's late next week which other models are now showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 What a beautiful morning. 54 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 That superstorm really changed everything. All the cold air is gone, we can't even get to freezing or below in early April despite all those cold departures of the last few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 That superstorm really changed everything. All the cold air is gone, we can't even get to freezing or below in early April despite all those cold departures of the last few months. And this is a bad thing? Looking forward to hitting the course on Friday..winter is over, time to move on. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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